Coronavirus Thread

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volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:32 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut
I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Jan 10 to Jan 16). The New Case Slope graph shows a continued increase in the past week while Days to Double graph shows a flat trend in the past week except for an increase in the 7 day trend. There is some evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers remain high but are not increasing as fast as they were in the past.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut
[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:28 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 19 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.219) with 7515 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.198) with 2283 cases, New Hampshire (0.131) with 58,709 cases, North Dakota (0.099) with 96,071 cases, and Wyoming (0.094) with 49,922 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 96 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 80 of last 112 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 125 of last 202 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 127 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Missouri, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate. Federal Prisons and Idaho did not report the previous day.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0180 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0147. This is not population or case number weighted.

Growth rates the last several days have been lower than the last couple weeks. For the last three days the US growth rate has been less than 0.020. The last time we had three days below 0.020 was in early October 2020. We can hope this continues.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:26 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 20 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.122) with 96,222 cases, Arkansas (0.120) with 276,114 cases, New Hampshire (0.119) with 59,437 cases, Wyoming (0.113) with 50,124 cases, and Minnesota (0.110) with 449,492 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 126 of last 203 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 76 of last 153 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 81 of last 113 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 128 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 122 of last 168 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Rhode Island, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Maine, and North Carolina were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate. US Military did not report the previous day.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0196 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0180. This is not population or case number weighted.

Growth rates the last several days have been lower than the last couple weeks. For the last four days the US growth rate has been less than 0.020. The last time we had four days below 0.020 was in early October 2020. We can hope this continues.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:54 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.160) with 2321 cases, Wyoming (0.159) with 50,424 cases, Arkansas (0.152) with 279,220 cases, New Hampshire (0.137) with 60,294 cases, and North Dakota (0.126) with 96,370 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 98 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 129 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 77 of last 154 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 82 of last 114 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 127 of last 204 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Rhode Island and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, South Dakota, US Virgin Islands, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0202 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0196. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:30 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.169) with 96,567 cases, Guam (0.157) with 7547 cases, Minnesota (0.137) with 452,268 cases, New Hampshire (0.106) with 60,951 cases, and Arkansas (0.105) with 281,382 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 128 of last 205 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 123 of last 170 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 83 of last 115 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 78 of last 155 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, Rhode Island. US Military, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0199 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0202. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:24 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.132) with 453,808 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.131) with 2335 cases, North Dakota (0.129) with 96,720 cases, Oklahoma (0.129) with 370,149 cases, and New Hampshire (0.101) with 61,576 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 124 of last 171 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 100 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 129 of last 206 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 64 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 84 of last 116 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Oklahoma and Puerto Rico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Nebraska did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0177 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0199. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:14 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.186) with 50,898 cases, New Hampshire (0.128) with 62,337 cases, Minnesota (0.106) with 454,989 cases, Oklahoma (0.091) with 373,090 cases, and North Dakota (0.084) with 96,817 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 132 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 85 of last 117 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 125 of last 172 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 65 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 130 of last 207 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Puerto Rico was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana, Nebraska, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Louisiana and Wyoming did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0138 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0177. This is not population or case number weighted. The growth rate for yesterday was the lowest since December 25, 2020 when it was 0.0131. Holidays and Sundays are often low numbers because some states do not report.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 12:42 pm More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut
I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Jan 17 to Jan 23). The New Case Slope graph shows a decrease in the past week and has gone negative while Days to Double graph shows a increasing trend for 7 day, 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. There was a holiday early in the past week that may have reduced reporting. But, there is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers remain high but are decreasing.

Stay safe out there.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:21 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.093) with 51,062 cases, Minnesota (0.072) with 455,783 cases, New Hampshire (0.070) with 62,768 cases, Guam (0.056) with 7554 cases, and Oklahoma (0.054) with 374,853 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 133 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 126 of last 173 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 86 of last 118 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 25 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 66 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut and US Military did not report the previous two days. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0154 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0138. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:40 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for January 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.139) with 287,187 cases, North Dakota (0.122) with 97,006 cases, Guam (0.113) with 7566 cases, US Virgin islands (0.108) with 2350 cases, and Montana (0.078) with 92,160 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 79 of last 159 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 131 of last 208 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 26 days. US Virgin islands has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 103 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 28 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Guam, Maine, Rhode Island, US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0151 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0154. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 9 of the 10 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

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