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Coronavirus Thread

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abscate
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by abscate » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:12 am

FWIW the accepted value at EPA for a life is $10M. That’s the pre-2016 number they use for enacted regulation. Some argue that’s too high, some argue too low. No prizes for guessing who argues what.

This week, they apparently think the price is infinite, but that won’t stand
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:45 am

More statistics on US states and CORVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. I have added several columns on the right side of the tables. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the CORVID-19 data. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last 3 days with states ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily. I hope to add past information and may add 3 or 5 day moving average for the growth rate.

Do you find this information useful? Confusing?

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:04 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:45 am
Do you find this information useful?
I'm following daily my state's stats, and glancing at other stats/graphs. So, I'm aware of your stats for my state. For all of us, the most relevant stat will be hospital beds and ventilators: COVID-19 US state-by-state projections

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by abscate » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:12 am

That’s going to change daily as patients and equipment are moved.

If we build 50,000 vents it may well be enough to move around the country as each area peaks.

I’m making the 50k number up, it could be 500k
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:38 am

abscate wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:12 am
...accepted value at EPA for a life is $10M.
In industrial nations, the justice system considers a human life "priceless",

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:57 am

Twitter Speak: DrMattMcCarthy - NEW: CDC guidance on masks expected to change in next 10 days. Americans will be advised to wear masks in everyday life. Current recommendation is for high-risk groups only.

Like cigarette smoke, this virus can linger in the air for some time. The six foot distance between people would not be effective within buildings; outdoors, it depends upon which way the wind blows relative to each person.
============

Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired
To help manage the shortage, the authorities sent a message that made them untrustworthy.
...
...
First, many health experts, including the surgeon general of the United States, told the public simultaneously that masks weren’t necessary for protecting the general public and that health care workers needed the dwindling supply. This contradiction confuses an ordinary listener. How do these masks magically protect the wearers only and only if they work in a particular field?
Last edited by 93Regina on Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:01 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:58 am

I have created a ranked list of CORVID-19 infection growth rate for all countries. It would take about 6 screen shots to display. Most are small countries I might have heard of before. Any interest in seeing this information?

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:41 am

Statistics - Keep in mind these stats are not reflective of reality, and tend to be under reported.

Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know
“The numbers are grossly under reported. I know for a fact that we’ve had three deaths in one county where only one is listed on the website,” one California ER doctor told BuzzFeed News.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ni ... -hospitals

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:59 am

In February, Wang Chen, a director at the state-run Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, estimated that the nucleic acid tests used in China were accurate at identifying positive cases of the coronavirus only 30%-50% of the time.
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It is possible they were first given a false negative test result, which can happen if the swab used to collect samples of the virus misses bits of the virus. Dr. Li Wenliang, a whistleblowing doctor who later died of the virus himself in February, tested negative for the coronavirus several times before being accurately diagnosed.
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...
"There are false positives with these types of tests," Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University, told NPR by email. Shaman recently co-authored a modeling study showing that transmission by individuals who did not exhibit any symptoms was a driver of the Wuhan outbreak.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by j-dawg » Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:18 am

smacknab wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:36 pm
Any apolitical takes on the 2 trillion dollar emergency relief bill?
Probably at least in part necessary, probably something that would have had less of an impact if we'd spent the last 5-6 years buying down our deficit instead of cutting taxes for people who didn't need it.

Most voters aren't capable of making comparisons between large numbers. Politically, fighting to raise $100 billion in taxes costs as much or more than fighting to spend $2 trillion. Our voter base is not numerically literate enough to understand what a trillion means, but the narrative of one party that's "fiscally responsible" and another that's in favor of "tax and spend" is so firmly rooted that actual forward progress on budgetary issues in easier times is impossible. So when we get to a crisis like this or the 08 financial crisis, where we have no choice but to dig the debt hole deeper, I get pessimistic. I think the present action is needed, but I don't see any chance that we'll prepare correctly for the next one. And these failures stack and stack and stack, and eventually they will reach a breaking point.

Oops, missed the apolitical qualifier.
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