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Coronavirus Thread

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by matthew1 » Thu May 28, 2020 11:43 am

Volvolugnut, it's like the rest of the forum: there's a deep well of unseen viewers who don't post, or register.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Thu May 28, 2020 6:03 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:40 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.
I have created six graphs with about 10 states in each showing growth rate from April 5 to May 26 or 27. This data used 5 day moving averages to smooth some of the noise. These graphs are a bit busy with all the lines together. Note that the vertical scale changes for each graph. I will give some commentary for each. If you want to see detail of an individual state, I will try to accommodate.

All the states (and 4 territories) started in early April at high growth rate. A possible explanation is most areas were just starting response with social distancing and other measures. Over the weeks, most states have a downward trend, sort of a glide path as we reduced the spreading rate. Some states had initial reductions and then stayed about the same rate to the present. Other states, had initial drops and are now rising again.

The first graph is Alabama to Florida. Most states are on a nice glide path to low rates. Arkansas has had several spikes to high rates recently.

The second graph is Georgia to Maryland. A lot more volatility in these states. Guam has very few cases, so they will have a lot more noise in the line as a few cases cause large changes in the growth rate. Idaho, Louisiana, and Maine were lower in early May, but are now rising again.

The third graph is Massachusetts to New Jersey. A lot of volatility in these states also. Look at Minnesota. You may recall Minnesota has been in the daily top 5 for weeks. It has a relatively flat line that does not drop of many weeks. Montana has very few cases, so they will have a lot more noise in the line as a few cases cause large changes in the growth rate. Nevada, and Mississippi were lower in late April, but are now rising again.

The fourth graph is New Mexico to South Carolina. North Dakota has few cases, so they will have more noise in the line as a few cases cause large changes in the growth rate. Oklahoma, North Dakota, North Carolina, and South Carolina (to a lesser extent) just stay about the same for the last month.

The fifth graph is South Dakota to Wyoming. South Dakota has few cases, so they will have more noise in the line as a few cases cause large changes in the growth rate. Texas, Utah, and Washington stay about the same for the last month. Tennessee, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin have increased in last weeks.

The sixth graph is the same information from graph 5 with several states removed. It shows better detail of the states which were hard to read.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by abscate » Fri May 29, 2020 6:43 am

Appreciate data, lugnut.

It’s painful watching states reopen with case loads growing. Absolute;y Moronic
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Fri May 29, 2020 9:21 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:40 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for May 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Alaska (0.342) with 425 cases, Montana (0.200) with 485 cases, Arkansas (0.151) with 6538 cases, Hawaii (0.111) with 647 cases, and Minnesota (0.093) with 22,947 cases. Alaska, Montana, and Hawaii have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska, Hawaii, and Montana were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). This is the second day in a row Hawaii and Montana has made the red list. Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, Texas, and Utah were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise. The last few days have shown more states over 1.5 and 2.0.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0196 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0179. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Sat May 30, 2020 12:12 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 9:21 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for May 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.348) with 493 cases, Arkansas (0.131) with 6777 cases, Wisconsin (0.121) with 17,707 cases, North Carolina (0.114) with 26,849 cases, and Minnesota (0.110) with 23,531 cases. Montana has few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, and Montana were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). This is the third day in a row Montana has made the red list. Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise. The last few days have shown more states over 1.5 and 2.0. Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Utah have made the list the last two days.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0215 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0196. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Sun May 31, 2020 8:34 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 12:12 pm
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for May 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.429) with 505 cases, Arkansas (0.139) with 7013 cases, Oklahoma (0.120) with 6,418 cases, Minnesota (0.118) with 24,190 cases, and Louisiana (0.105) with 39,581 cases,. Montana has few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Delaware, and Louisiana were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Montana, and North Dakota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise. The last few days have shown more states over 1.5 and 2.0. North Dakota has made the list the last two days.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0199 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0215. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by j-dawg » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:41 am

abscate wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 6:43 am

It’s painful watching states reopen with case loads growing. Absolute;y Moronic
Completely baffling. I've been trying to figure out if there's some new infrastructure I'm not aware of or if I'm the only sane one. I also recognize that I've been getting more lax about social distancing - my personal anxiety about being in public is gone, I no longer immediately leave work when it might be possible for me to complete desk work at home, etc. Despite that, of the people I know, I'm by far the most anxious to stay away from others, keep my mask on, and wash / sanitize regularly. I already have friends suggesting we go out to eat at restaurants.

We see the disaster but can't bring ourselves to steer away from it. The numbers are too big for us to comprehend. 100,000 dead has no meaning to me. It's more Americans dead than in than in Vietnam, more than in the towers, more than any mass shooting. More than all of them put together. But it could be 200,000 and it wouldn't be twice as shocking to me. It wouldn't be more shocking at all. Because we've worked so hard to minimize this crisis, we will only understand these numbers once each and every American personally knows someone who has died, alone and suffocating in an overloaded ICU, of the coronavirus. When enough of us have had a doctor hold an iPad before our loved ones so we can say goodbye, then we'll get it.

Our pending failure to save what I'm sure will be hundreds of thousands more lives is chipping away at my confidence in this country's ability to govern itself. Through these months, facts have stared us in the face and we have denied them out of blind faith in American exceptionalism, clinging desperately to the familiar instead of making hard choices. When the facts become inconvenient, we find facts we prefer. We choose leaders who tell us we can have it all, even while it all slips away.

I've lost so much patience with our political system through this crisis. My ability to moderate my anger is exhausted. But I have nowhere productive to take it besides Uncle Joe. I now see visions of death, destruction, the collapse of the American experiment into authoritarianism and decay. I don't know if they'll come true, but the suddenness of their plausibility is terrifying. The virus has made plain weaknesses we should have seen years ago. I am not optimistic that we will address them.

Sorry to rant. Maybe this got too dark. My Volvo is fine.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:16 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 8:34 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for May 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Alaska (0.464) with 460 cases, Montana (0.250) with 515 cases, Arkansas (0.140) with 7253 cases, Oklahoma (0.136) with 6,506 cases, and Minnesota (0.125) with 24,850 cases. Montana and Alaska have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Only Alaska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Missouri, and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0173 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0199. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:02 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:16 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.500) with 70 cases, Idaho (0.132) with 2906 cases, Guam (0.125) with 175 cases, Arkansas (0.103) with 7443 cases, and Montana (0.095) with 519 cases. US Virgin Islands, Guam, and Montana have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Massachusetts, US Virgin Islands, and US military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, Idaho, Kansas, and Kentucky were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

Connecticut and Massachusetts have significantly increased their testing. I suspect this is why they appear on the red and yellow lists today.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0196 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0173. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by Sveedy » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:24 am

Unfortunately this is the country we have created, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
Hard to make a society work, when your country's motto now appears to be " I've got mine - F--k You ! "
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