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Coronavirus Thread

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by abscate »

j-dawg wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:41 am
abscate wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 6:43 am
It’s painful watching states reopen with case loads growing. Absolute;y Moronic
Completely baffling. I've been trying to figure out if there's some new infrastructure I'm not aware of or if I'm the only sane one. I also recognize that I've been getting more lax about social distancing - my personal anxiety about being in public is gone, I no longer immediately leave work when it might be possible for me to complete desk work at home, etc. Despite that, of the people I know, I'm by far the most anxious to stay away from others, keep my mask on, and wash / sanitize regularly. I already have friends suggesting we go out to eat at restaurants.

We see the disaster but can't bring ourselves to steer away from it. The numbers are too big for us to comprehend. 100,000 dead has no meaning to me. It's more Americans dead than in than in Vietnam, more than in the towers, more than any mass shooting. More than all of them put together. But it could be 200,000 and it wouldn't be twice as shocking to me. It wouldn't be more shocking at all. Because we've worked so hard to minimize this crisis, we will only understand these numbers once each and every American personally knows someone who has died, alone and suffocating in an overloaded ICU, of the coronavirus. When enough of us have had a doctor hold an iPad before our loved ones so we can say goodbye, then we'll get it.

Our pending failure to save what I'm sure will be hundreds of thousands more lives is chipping away at my confidence in this country's ability to govern itself. Through these months, facts have stared us in the face and we have denied them out of blind faith in American exceptionalism, clinging desperately to the familiar instead of making hard choices. When the facts become inconvenient, we find facts we prefer. We choose leaders who tell us we can have it all, even while it all slips away.

I've lost so much patience with our political system through this crisis. My ability to moderate my anger is exhausted. But I have nowhere productive to take it besides Uncle Joe. I now see visions of death, destruction, the collapse of the American experiment into authoritarianism and decay. I don't know if they'll come true, but the suddenness of their plausibility is terrifying. The virus has made plain weaknesses we should have seen years ago. I am not optimistic that we will address them.

Sorry to rant. Maybe this got too dark. My Volvo is fine.
You’ve captured my angst very well, but I have one more to add. I’m embarrassed that I have let a society built to survive two world wars, a Cold War, collapse of the USSR, ... and on my watch I’ve let It be destroyed by a virus.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by j-dawg »

We haven't been vigilant. A lesson I hope we'll learn.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:02 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Alaska (0.225) with 487 cases, Arkansas (0.184) with 7818 cases, Oklahoma (0.163) with 6692 cases, Vermont (0.104) with 988 cases, and Tennessee (0.103) with 24,375 cases. Alaska, and Vermont have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Veterans Affairs, Navajo Nation, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Illinois, New Mexico, Vermont, and US military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0192 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0196. This is not population or case number weighted.

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State Growth 060220 A.JPG
State Growth 060220 A.JPG (242.43 KiB) Viewed 155 times
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State Growth 060220 B.JPG (212.32 KiB) Viewed 155 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rattnalle »

abscate wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:44 am
j-dawg wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:41 am
abscate wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 6:43 am
It’s painful watching states reopen with case loads growing. Absolute;y Moronic
Completely baffling. I've been trying to figure out if there's some new infrastructure I'm not aware of or if I'm the only sane one. I also recognize that I've been getting more lax about social distancing - my personal anxiety about being in public is gone, I no longer immediately leave work when it might be possible for me to complete desk work at home, etc. Despite that, of the people I know, I'm by far the most anxious to stay away from others, keep my mask on, and wash / sanitize regularly. I already have friends suggesting we go out to eat at restaurants.

We see the disaster but can't bring ourselves to steer away from it. The numbers are too big for us to comprehend. 100,000 dead has no meaning to me. It's more Americans dead than in than in Vietnam, more than in the towers, more than any mass shooting. More than all of them put together. But it could be 200,000 and it wouldn't be twice as shocking to me. It wouldn't be more shocking at all. Because we've worked so hard to minimize this crisis, we will only understand these numbers once each and every American personally knows someone who has died, alone and suffocating in an overloaded ICU, of the coronavirus. When enough of us have had a doctor hold an iPad before our loved ones so we can say goodbye, then we'll get it.

Our pending failure to save what I'm sure will be hundreds of thousands more lives is chipping away at my confidence in this country's ability to govern itself. Through these months, facts have stared us in the face and we have denied them out of blind faith in American exceptionalism, clinging desperately to the familiar instead of making hard choices. When the facts become inconvenient, we find facts we prefer. We choose leaders who tell us we can have it all, even while it all slips away.

I've lost so much patience with our political system through this crisis. My ability to moderate my anger is exhausted. But I have nowhere productive to take it besides Uncle Joe. I now see visions of death, destruction, the collapse of the American experiment into authoritarianism and decay. I don't know if they'll come true, but the suddenness of their plausibility is terrifying. The virus has made plain weaknesses we should have seen years ago. I am not optimistic that we will address them.

Sorry to rant. Maybe this got too dark. My Volvo is fine.
You’ve captured my angst very well, but I have one more to add. I’m embarrassed that I have let a society built to survive two world wars, a Cold War, collapse of the USSR, ... and on my watch I’ve let It be destroyed by a virus.
As an outsider I'm not sure whether the virus itself has destroyed your society, it seems to have been broken before that and, broken as it was, been unable to cope with a virus on top of everything else. But I'm just looking at it from over here, not from up close.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by j-dawg »

I agree. Our response to the virus, this week's protests, we're reaping what we've sown. We have spent decades - centuries, in the case of the protests - setting ourselves up for this.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:38 pm More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Alaska (0.170) with 505 cases, Oklahoma (0.150) with 6805 cases, Arkansas (0.118) with 8067 cases, North Carolina (0.118) with 31,221 cases, and Idaho (0.100) with 2990 cases. Alaska has few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Only Alaska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Florida, Guam, and South Dakota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0183 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0192. This is not population or case number weighted.

Best states by 5 day moving average are currently: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Colorado, District of Columbia, Georgia, Ohio, Kansas, and Maryland.

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State Growth 060320 A.JPG
State Growth 060320 A.JPG (244.76 KiB) Viewed 141 times
State Growth 060320 B.JPG
State Growth 060320 B.JPG (214.05 KiB) Viewed 141 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:34 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Vermont (0.655) with 1026 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.500) with 71 cases, Montana (0.318) with 539 cases, Arkansas (0.162) with 8425 cases, and Puerto Rico (0.160) with 4508 cases. Vermont, US Virgin Islands, and Montana have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Hawaii, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, and Vermont were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Indiana, Iowa, Montana, and South Dakota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0202 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0183. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 060420 A.JPG
State Growth 060420 A.JPG (241.22 KiB) Viewed 136 times
State Growth 060420 B.JPG
State Growth 060420 B.JPG (213.14 KiB) Viewed 136 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by bronco »

lots of gloomy Gus'es in here , I think this is winding down and there wont be a second wave.

If there is no big spike a few weeks after all this non social distancing rioting then its a wrap
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:57 pm More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Hawaii (0.333) with 664 cases, Minnesota (0.193) with 26,980 cases, Oklahoma (0.123) with 7003 cases, Utah (0.108) with 11,252 cases, and North Carolina (0.100) with 33,294 cases. Hawaii has few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Hawaii, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and New Mexico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0231 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0202. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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State Growth 060520 A.JPG
State Growth 060520 A.JPG (238.65 KiB) Viewed 120 times
State Growth 060520 B.JPG
State Growth 060520 B.JPG (208.91 KiB) Viewed 120 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:50 pm More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Hawaii (0.273) with 673 cases, Vermont (0.211) with 1046 cases, Arkansas (0.186) with 9101 cases, North Dakota (0.164) with 2816 cases, and Minnesota (0.132) with 27,501 cases. Hawaii has few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alabama was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, and North Dakota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0205 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0231. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 060620 A.JPG
State Growth 060620 A.JPG (241.97 KiB) Viewed 109 times
State Growth 060620 B.JPG
State Growth 060620 B.JPG (207.68 KiB) Viewed 109 times
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