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Coronavirus Thread

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volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:14 pm
volvolugnut wrote: Sat Nov 14, 2020 11:30 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.
New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut
I have updated the graphs for the latest week. There is a change in direction of both the New Case Slope and the Days to Double graphs. This may be a Holiday week effect like the weekend effect where fewer cases are reported. Hopefully, this change is a start of decline in the number of new infections because new restrictions are working.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:36 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.208) with 312,969 cases, New Hampshire (0.099) with 20,480 cases, North Dakota (0.098) with 78,658 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.097) with 1544 cases, and Maine (0.097) with 11,508 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 90 of last 116 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 61 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 101 of last 151 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 45 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Maine, and Minnesota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0261 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0274. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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State Growth 112920 A.JPG
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:20 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Tennessee (0.222) with 374,493 cases, Minnesota (0.131) with 318,763 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.109) with 1550 cases, Maine (0.105) with 11,757 cases, and New Hampshire (0.104) with 20,994 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 65 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 91 of last 117 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 46 days. Maine has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 7 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 62 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Kansas, Rhode Island, US Virgin Islands, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, Kansas, Rhode Island, US Military, and Federal Prisons did not report the previous day. Maine, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0301 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0261. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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State Growth 113020 A.JPG
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State Growth 113020 B.JPG (233.03 KiB) Viewed 632 times
Last edited by volvolugnut on Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:38 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.159) with 237,740 cases, New Hampshire (0.150) with 21,766 cases, Tennessee (0.138) with 380,186 cases, Arkansas (0.121) with 159,309 cases, and Maine (0.089) with 11,976 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 52 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 63 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 66 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 105 days. Maine has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 8 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Rhode Island was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Guam, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Veterans Affairs, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0336 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0301. This is not population or case number weighted.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 8:15 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (1.147) with 1589 cases, Arkansas (0.137) with 161,521 cases, Minnesota (0.132) with 327,477 cases, Massachusetts (0.115) with 234,232 cases, and New Hampshire (0.113) with 22,332 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 48 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 105 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 92 of last 119 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 64 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, US Virgin Islands, and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0371 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0336. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:50 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.358) with 1613 cases, North Dakota (0.185) with 81,105 cases, Arkansas (0.170) with 164,310 cases, Minnesota (0.164) with 333,626 cases, and Massachusetts (0.147) with 240,907 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 49 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 102 of last 155 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 106 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 93 of last 120 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0392 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0371. This is not population or case number weighted.

Yesterday the new case count was at all time high of 218,576. Previous high new cases count was 204,179 on November 20. Yesterday new deaths were at all time high at 2918. Previous death count high was April 21 at 2744.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:59 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.176) with 23,690 cases, Oklahoma (0.172) with 208,875 cases, Arkansas (0.165) with 167,137 cases, North Dakota (0.155) with 81,949 cases, and Minnesota (0.134) with 338,973 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 66 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 14 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 107 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 103 of last 156 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 94 of last 121 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, Kansas, Oklahoma, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0413 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0392. This is not population or case number weighted.

Yesterday the new case count was at all time high of 235,272. Previous high new cases count was 218,576 on the day before.

volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:36 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.227) with 1633 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 345,281 cases, Oklahoma (0.148) with 213,245 cases, Tennessee (0.136) with 397,522 cases, and Arkansas (0.124) with 169,382 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 51 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 95 of last 122 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 15 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 70 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 108 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0358 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0413. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:27 am More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.148) with 1649 cases, New Hampshire (0.139) with 24,771 cases, Minnesota (0.139) with 350,862 cases, Oklahoma (0.106) with 216,486 cases, and Louisiana (0.105) with 251,123 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 52 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 68 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 96 of last 123 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 16 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 57 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska and Puerto Rico were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Nebraska did not report the previous 2 days. Navajo Nation was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0296 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0358. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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State Growth 120620 A.JPG
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:10 pm More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.284) with 1680 cases, Tennessee (0.229) with 408,730 cases, New Hampshire (0.225) with 25,816 cases, Maine (0.140) with 13,775 cases, and Minnesota (0.137) with 356,152 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 53 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 72 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 69 days. Maine has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 14 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 97 of last 124 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Kansas, Nebraska, Washington, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Tennessee, US Military, and Navajo Nation was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, Kansas, Federal Prisons, and US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0333 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0296. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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State Growth 120720 A.JPG
State Growth 120720 A.JPG (257 KiB) Viewed 607 times
State Growth 120720 B.JPG
State Growth 120720 B.JPG (236.41 KiB) Viewed 607 times
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