This summer, used Volvo prices will go...

[matthew1]

This summer, used Volvo prices will, compared to last summer as a baseline, go...

[E Showell]

They are likely to fall since a lots of folks will be out of work. Tough to buy a car if you don't have any cash coming in. (I am assuming most used car purchases are for cash -- which may not be the case -- but I can't imagine a used car loan would be particularly easy to get if we experience a massive economic dislocation -- which I am expecting.)

[93Regina]

They are likely to fall since a lots of folks will be out of work.

Classic Volvos are not the same as "car lot" Volvos.

When an economy is in recession, this can create more demand for used vehicles, which usually pumps up prices.

Lending practices will factor into this equation, but those "bad credit risk" lenders will be lending $$$ at high interest rates.

[matthew1]

We're not talking about classic Volvos. Just normal, everyday used Volvos.

[Georgeandkira]

Please note that I'm guessing.
I said 20% up because I perceive some measure of inflexibility in the Volvo buyers' mindset (as in "gotta hava Volvo).
Volvo will have produced fewer new cars possibly upping the demand for used ones.
While the trade in allowance for any Volvo buyer's car may be inflated, the price of the used Volvo will be similarly inflated.

Generally speaking: Can you imagine how shamelessly all car dealers will now up-sell services or lie or just pad service bills due to drop in demand?

[mrbrian200]

Other automakers will be running massive sales, perhaps selling at or near cost hoping to get sales going, factories back up, and people back on payroll. I wouldn't be surprised if federal and state governments roll out incentives (temporarily suspend or lower sales taxes on major purchases such as a new vehicle, federal tax rebates etc). Volvo will most certainly follow suit. They'd be dumb not to.

Edit: In case you don't understand the relationship between new/used sales this will drive used prices down as well as old vehicles get traded in increasing vehicle stock to the used market.

[matthew1]

Low interest rates = more new car sales = fewer used car sales.

[smacknab]

Just gonna ditto mrbrian. Already we're seeing manufacturers offering 0% apr and other incentives on buying new cars. I just saw a Jeep ad that was 0% apr for 84 months and 3 months of deferred payments. I can see how stuff like this, paired with govt incentives will make newer cars more appealing mathematically.

Another thought; sellers could be strapped for cash and more eager to sell quickly, at least for things like second/third/project cars.

All anecdotal, I don't have any hard data on buying/selling habits during a recession.

[CSDentonTX]

Oops. I answered based on the "all Volvos are worth $500." Now you tell me this is not about classics. But that got me wondering about how Matt defines "classic."

[matthew1]

Classics are maybe 1/10th of 1% of the volume of used Volvo sales. There are oceans of XC90, XC70, S70, S60, V70, S80, 850, S40, V40, V50, ...ad nauseum, that trade hands every minute of every day.