Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 08, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.189) with 90,145 cases, Minnesota (0.161) with 107,922 cases, New Hampshire (0.154) with 8878 cases, Wyoming (0.144) with 7092 cases, and North Dakota (0.142) with 25,384 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 51 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 64 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 39 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 24 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 99 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, and Virginia were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0220 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0189. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterdays growth rate was the highest since August 14 when it was 0.0252. The new cases for yesterday where the highest at 56,652 since August 14 when they were 60,600.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 09, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.173) with 8970 cases, North Dakota (0.171) with 26,040 cases, Wyoming (0.169) with 7335 cases, South Dakota (0.166) with 27,215 cases, and Arkansas (0.165) with 91,312 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 40 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 100 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 25 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 49 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 52 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada, South Dakota, West Virginia, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0234 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0220. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 10, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.209) with 9092 cases, Minnesota (0.161) with 110,828 cases, North Dakota (0.148) with 26,628 cases, South Dakota (0.141) with 27,947 cases, and Arkansas (0.121) with 92,220 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 41 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 66 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 66 of last 101 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 50 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 53 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0194 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0234. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.160) with 172,059 cases, North Dakota (0.153) with 27,265 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 112,268 cases, Tennessee (0.122) with 214,717 cases, and South Dakota (0.112) with 28,564 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 67 of last 102 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 67 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 17 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 51 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

Louisiana did not report the previous day and may have had abnormally high new cases for yesterday.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0159 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0194. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.211) with 3170 cases, Tennessee (0.164) with 217,682 cases, Kansas (0.124) with 68,825 cases, Minnesota (0.118) with 113,439 cases, and Wyoming (0.114) with 7802 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 18 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 68 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 28 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, and Kansas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Washington was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0173 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0159. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 13, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.188) with 1328 cases, Minnesota (0.115) with 114,574 cases, North Dakota (0.112) with 28,245 cases, Wisconsin (0.111) with 155,471 cases, and Guam (0.104) with 3266 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 69 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 68 of last 104 days. Wisconsin has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 39 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Florida, Rhode Island, and Washington was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise. Many of these highlighted states did not report previous days.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0196 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0173. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 14, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.153) with 28,947 cases, South Dakota (0.145) with 30,215 cases, Minnesota (0.140) with 115,943 cases, Arkansas (0.139) with 95,246 cases, and Wyoming (0.123) with 8177 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 69 of last 105 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 54 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 70 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 57 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 30 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, Rhode Island, and Us Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Florida, Iowa, Missouri, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0226 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0196. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.159) with 96,524 cases, North Dakota (0.148) with 29,653 cases, Mississippi (0.139) with 108,139 cases, Louisiana (0.132) with 173,864 cases, and South Dakota (0.121) with 31,012 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 58 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 70 of last 106 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 55 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Missouri and Rhode Island were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Vermont, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0250 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0226. This is not population or case number weighted. New case number yesterday was 66,129, the highest since July 31 when it was 70,904. Yesterday's growth rate at .0250 was the highest since August 14 when it was 0.0252.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

I have created eight new graphs with about 6 or 7 states in each showing growth rate from April 5 to Oct 9. There are some interesting changes from two months ago. This data used 5 day moving averages to smooth some of the noise. These graphs are a bit busy with all the lines together. Note that the vertical scale changes for each graph. I will give some commentary for each.

All the states and territories started in early April at high growth rate. A possible explanation is most areas were just starting response with social distancing and other measures. Over the weeks, most states have a downward trend, sort of a glide path as we reduced the spreading rate. Some states had initial reductions and then stayed about the same rate to the present. Other states, had initial drops and are now rising again. Others show no clear trend, but rise and fall randomly. Note that most states started reopening in late April and early May. During the last couple months, some states have started to restrict some activities again.

Here are some background comments on growth rates for your consideration. The growth rate is the rate of increase in active cases. The current day new case number is divided by the previous day number of active cases. A growth rate of 0.05, if maintained, will double the number of active cases in two weeks. A growth rate of 0.10 will double active cases in 7 days. Active cases will double in 5 days for a growth rate of 0.15. The best states have consistent growth rates below 0.005 for doubling active cases in about 140 days. Two states that did very well until recently are New York and New Jersey. Maryland has consistently lowered the growth rate since spring.

Another consideration is the number of active cases in the state. There is dramatic differences between the states. California, Texas, and Florida have replaced New York as states with the most cases. A few smaller, mostly rural states have only a few thousand total cases.

The first graph is Alabama to Colorado. Most of this group of states are on a nice glide path to low rates. Alaska was trending lower until October and has since risen to moderate levels. Arkansas has never had low growth rate and continues high growth rates currently.

The second graph is Connecticut to Georgia. All of these states have low growth rate and continue their flat trend.

The third graph is Hawaii to Kentucky. As a group, these states look good with low to moderate growth rates. Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, and Kansas have moderate growth rates lately. Hawaii has rising growth rate this month from earlier low rates.

The fourth graph is Louisiana to Mississippi. This group of states has a lot of variation. Minnesota continues to have high growth rates. Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, and Mississippi have moderate growth rate recently. Michigan and Maryland have low growth rate levels.

The fifth graph is Missouri to New Mexico. Montana and New Hampshire are states with the highest growth rate in this group. Nebraska has moderate growth rate, but recently has dropped. The other states have generally low growth rates, but have been climbing in recent weeks.

The sixth graph is New York to Pennsylvania. In this group, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Oklahoma have high growth rates. They have not changed much in the last month. Pennsylvania has moderate growth rate. New York and Oregon have low growth rates, but New York has been rising.

The seventh graph is Puerto Rico to Texas. South Dakota and Tennessee have consistently high growth rates. Texas has seen moderate growth rate. Rhode Island and South Carolina have low growth rates. Puerto Rico had low growth rate trend until they stopped new case reporting a couple weeks ago.

The eighth graph is Utah to Wyoming. Vermont, Wyoming and Wisconsin have high growth rates the last few weeks. Vermont was moderate growth until the first of August. Utah and Virginia, have recently had moderate growth rate. Washington and Virginia look good lately with low growth rate.

I hope some find this information interesting.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.222) with 119,396 cases, North Dakota (0.175) with 30,517 cases, Wyoming (0.148) with 8,665 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.133) with 1329 cases, and Louisiana (0.122) with 174,638 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 72 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 71 of last 107 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 32 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, and West Virginia were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0268 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0250. This is not population or case number weighted. New case number yesterday was 71,687, the highest since July 24 when it was 78,009. Yesterday's growth rate at .0268 was the highest since August 7 when it was 0.0276.

volvolugnut