Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 7, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.152) with 278,171 cases, Oklahoma (0.075) with 649,223 cases, Vermont (0.068) with 42,313 cases, Ohio (0.063) with 1,572,197 cases, and Arkansas (0.056) with 516,245 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 62 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 62 of last 171 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 183 of last 442 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00441 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00352. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases.

For 116 of the last 149 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 28 of last 48 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 8, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.257) with 810,602 cases, Wyoming (0.235) with 105,990 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.144) with 7303 cases, Oklahoma (0.127) with 650,004 cases, and Montana (0.103) with 181,350 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 293 of last 399 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 32 of last 63 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 101 of last 200 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 172 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 141 of last 313 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00592 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00441. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 117 of the last 150 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 29 of last 49 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 9, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.417) with 817,543 cases, North Dakota (0.248) with 152,782 cases, Arkansas (0.144) with 517,000 cases, Montana (0.145) with 182,468 cases, and Wyoming (0.120) with 106,287 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 294 of last 400 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 433 of last 461 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 184 of last 444 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 142 of last 314 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 33 of last 64 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00788 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00592. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 118 of the last 151 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 50 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 10, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.357) with 822,635 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.291) with 7329 cases, Tennessee (0.190) with 1,292,195 cases, North Dakota (0.186) with 153,425 cases, and Wyoming (0.170) with 106,698 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 295 of last 401 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 102 of last 202 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 434 of last 462 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 65 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0103 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00788. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, no states did not report new cases.

For 119 of the last 152 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 51 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 11, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.305) with 827,658 cases, North Dakota (0.169) with 154,049 cases, West Virginia (0.169) with 280,727 cases, Arkansas (0.144) with 518,348 cases, and Vermont (0.101) with 43,521 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 296 of last 402 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 435 of last 463 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 66 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 185 of last 446 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00476 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0103. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 120 of the last 153 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 52 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 12, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.248) with 832,610 cases, Oklahoma (0.194) with 652,731 cases, New Hampshire (0.185) with 144,626 cases, West Virginia (0.176) with 281,865 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.170) with 7364 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 297 of last 403 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 176 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 67 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 103 of last 204 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00982 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00475. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 121 of the last 154 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 53 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 13, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.147) with 653,624 cases, North Dakota (0.137) with 154,950 cases, Arkansas (0.117) with 519,453 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.117) with 7357 cases, and West Virginia (0.080) with 282,405 cases. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 177 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 436 of last 465 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 186 of last 448 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 104 of last 205 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 68 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00447 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00982. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 32 states did not report new cases.

For 122 of the last 155 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 54 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (November 7 to November 13). The New Case Slope graph showed a increase in the past week and has broke into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7, 14, and 21 day count all decreased this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 109 days.

This week the new case count average increased for the second week and broke a downward trend started eight weeks ago.
New case average weekly count is now at about the same level as the first of August 2021 and middle of October 2021.

I hope the trend changes and cases drop again. However, I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[farrahlux]

White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci is calling on eligible Americans to get their Covid-19 booster shots as the holiday season approaches and cases rise nationwide, driven by upticks in the Midwest and Northeast. Fauci blamed the increasing cases on the roughly 60 million eligible individuals across the country who remain unimmunized against the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also expanded access to Pfizer’s two-dose vaccine to approximately 28 million children ages 5 to 11 earlier this month after approving booster doses for almost 100 million people this fall.
“Always the primary thing is to get the unvaccinated vaccinated,” Fauci said in an interview on “The News with Shepard Smith” Monday night. “But for those who are eligible to be boosted, by all means, go and get boosted.”
secure texting for healthcare http://curogram.com/blog/healthcare-secure-texting
Fauci referenced Israeli data that showed Covid booster doses lowered recipients’ chances for infection and severe symptoms. Researchers in Israel also demonstrated the waning effectiveness of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid shots in a study of nearly 4.8 million vaccinated adults, with higher rates of infection across all age groups among those who completed their second shot in mid-January compared to those who became fully vaccinated in February and March.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 14, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.098) with 283,075 cases, Arkansas (0.058) with 519,760 cases, North Dakota (0.057) with 155,154 cases, Pennsylvania (0.048) with 1,644,848 cases, and Ohio (0.046) with 1,604,488 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 38 of last 69 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 187 of last 449 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 437 of last 466 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00263 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00959. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases.

For 122 of the last 156 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 55 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut