Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 2, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.314) with 7525 cases, Minnesota (0.308) with 910,721 cases, West Virginia (0.234) with 297,415 cases, Wyoming (0.205) with 111,560 cases, and Arkansas (0.203) with 530,994 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 111 of last 224 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 308 of last 423 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 87 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 87 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 197 of last 467 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0141 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0128. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 137 of the last 174 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 73 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 3, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.285) with 916,317 cases, New Hampshire (0.195) with 165,574 cases, Wyoming (0.180) with 111,812 cases, West Virginia (0.175) with 298,659 cases, and Arkansas (0.174) with 532,168 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 309 of last 424 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 88 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 88 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 198 of last 468 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0155 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0141. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

The growth rate for yesterday (0.0155) was the highest since September 17, 2021 when it was 0.0165.

The new case count for yesterday (147,434) was the highest since September 17, 2021 when it was 157,925.

For 138 of the last 175 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 74 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 4, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.204) with 672,227 cases, West Virginia (0.152) with 299,827 cases, North Dakota (0.133) with 164,539 cases, Arkansas (0.110) with 532,973 cases, and Delaware (0.079) with 155,922 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 89 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 451 of last 486 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 199 of last 469 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00591 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0155. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 139 of the last 176 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 75 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (November 21 to December 4). It is helpful to ignore 2 weeks ago and look at the trend continuing from the previous weeks. The second week ago was, of course, Thanksgiving week and the new case counts were lower. This drop is assumed to be because of reduced reporting, not an actual drop in cases.

The New Case Slope graph showed a increase in the past two weeks and continues into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7, 14, and 21 day count all decreased the past two weeks. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 86 days.

The New Case Slope line looks very similar to the middle of July 2021 when the summer surge was growing.

This week the new case count average increased for the 4th week out of 5 weeks and continues the reversal of a downward trend started nine weeks ago. New case average weekly count is now at about the same level as the middle of August 2021 and middle of October 2021.

I hope the trend changes and cases drop again. However, I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 5, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.243) with 7539 cases, West Virginia (0.104) with 300,660 cases, Vermont (0.071) with 52,889 cases, Delaware (0.052) with 156,454 cases, and Arkansas (0.050) with 533,356 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 112 of last 227 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 90 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 200 of last 470 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00364 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00591. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases.

For 140 of the last 177 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 76 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 6, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.270) with 112,199 cases, Minnesota (0.259) with 922,278 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.244) with 7549 cases, Connecticut (0.242) with 430,756 cases, and Oklahoma (0.120) with 674,758 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 91 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 310 of last 427 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 113 of last 228 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00922 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00364. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 141 of the last 178 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 77 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 7, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.541) with 7569 cases, Minnesota (0.521) with 934,423 cases, North Dakota (0.196) with 165,375 cases, Arkansas (0.127) with 534,590 cases, and Montana (0.127) with 193,005 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 114 of last 229 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 311 of last 428 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 452 of last 489 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 201 of last 472 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0111 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00922. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 142 of the last 179 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 78 days with decreasing active case numbers.

New deaths reported for yesterday were 1722, This was the highest since October 20, 2021 when it was 2005.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 8, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.260) with 7582 cases, North Dakota (0.157) with 165,845 cases, New Hampshire (0.156) with 171,538 cases, Mississippi (0.140) with 517,925 cases, and Wyoming (0.136) with 112,551 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 115 of last 230 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 453 of last 490 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 44 of last 93 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0131 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0111. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 143 of the last 180 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 79 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 9, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.157) with 173,089 cases, Minnesota (0.148) with 941,057 cases, West Virginia (0.139) with 304,355 cases, Wyoming (0.128) with 112,731 cases, and North Dakota (0.128) with 166,233 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 312 of last 430 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 94 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 94 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 454 of last 491 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0113 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0131. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 144 of the last 181 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 80 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 10, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.179) with 7598 cases, Minnesota (0.175) with 945,486 cases, Oklahoma (0.144) with 680,054 cases, Arkansas (0.135) with 537,461 cases, and New Hampshire (0.128) with 174,456 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 116 of last 232 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 313 of last 431 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 202 of last 475 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0139 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0113. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 145 of the last 182 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 81 days with decreasing active case numbers.

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