Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 11, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.143) with 166,998 cases, West Virginia (0.125) with 306,552 cases, Arkansas (0.087) with 538,208 cases, Ohio (0.063) with 1,776,439 cases, and Delaware (0.060) with 160,124 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 455 of last 493 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 96 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 203 of last 476 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00578 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0139. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases.

For 146 of the last 183 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 82 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (December 5 to December 11).

The New Case Slope graph showed a decrease in the past week and continues in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day increased in the past week, while the 14, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 81 days.

The New Case Slope line looks to be flattening.

This week the new case count average increased for the 5th week out of 6 weeks and continues the reversal of a downward trend started nine weeks ago. New case average weekly count line also looks to be flattening.

I hope the trend of the last couple weeks continue and cases drop again. However, I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 12, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Island (0.117) with 7605 cases, West Virginia (0.096) with 307,432 cases, North Dakota (0.056) with 167,147 cases, Delaware (0.051) with 160,768 cases, and Vermont (0.051) with 55,849 cases. US Virgin Island has been in top 5 list for 117 of last 234 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 97 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 456 of last 494 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00389 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00578. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases.

For 147 of the last 184 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 83 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 13, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Connecticut (0.229) with 447,316 cases, Wyoming (0.168) with 113,077 cases, Minnesota (0.132) with 949,046 cases, US Virgin Island (0.106) with 7612 cases, and West Virginia (0.088) with 308,204 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 98 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 314 of last 434 days. US Virgin Island has been in top 5 list for 118 of last 235 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 98 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00955 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00389. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 148 of the last 185 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 84 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 14, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.375) with 957,867 cases, North Dakota (0.245) with 167,818 cases, Wyoming (0.153) with 113,233 cases, Arkansas (0.104) with 539,483 cases, and US Virgin Island (0.103) with 7618 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 315 of last 435 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 457 of last 496 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 99 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 204 of last 479 days. US Virgin Island has been in top 5 list for 119 of last 236 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0108 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00955. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 149 of the last 186 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 85 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 15, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.182) with 168,253 cases, West Virginia (0.157) with 310,245 cases, New Hampshire (0.148) with 180,238 cases, Arkansas (0.137) with 540,510 cases, and Minnesota (0.133) with 959,989 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 458 of last 497 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 100 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 205 of last 480 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 316 of last 436 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0136 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0108. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 150 of the last 187 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 86 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 16, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.271) with 963,676 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.246) with 7638 cases, North Dakota (0.165) with 168,668 cases, New Hampshire (0.158) with 181,660 cases, and West Virginia (0.154) with 311,524 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 317 of last 437 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 120 of last 238 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 459 of last 498 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 101 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0143 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0136. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 151 of the last 188 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 87 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 17, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.246) with 967,380 cases, Arkansas (0.146) with 542,426 cases, New Hampshire (0.145) with 183,056 cases, West Virginia (0.134) with 312,692 cases, and North Dakota (0.126) with 168,996 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 318 of last 438 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 206 of last 482 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 16 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 102 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 460 of last 499 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0160 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0143. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 152 of the last 189 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 88 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 18, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.132) with 313,890 cases, Arkansas (0.103) with 543,242 cases, Texas (0.097) with 4,426,066 cases, Florida (0.075) with 3,795,454 cases, and Ohio (0.068) with 1,839,501 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 103 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 207 of last 483 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00833 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0160. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases.

For 153 of the last 190 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 89 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (December 12 to December 18).

The New Case Slope graph showed an increase in the past week and continues in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 68 days.

The New Case Slope line continues the increasing trend.

I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut