Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 19, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.118) with 169,435 cases, West Virginia (0.098) with 314,791 cases, Texas (0.080) with 4,432,512 cases, Puerto Rico (0.070) with 195,867 cases, and Arkansas (0.050) with 543,648 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 461 of last 502 days.
West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 104 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 208 of last 484 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00645 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00833. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases.

For 154 of the last 191 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 90 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 20, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.360) with 7681 cases, Minnesota (0.192) with 970,556 cases, Wyoming (0.177) with 113,762 cases, Texas (0.131) with 4,443,271 cases, and Connecticut (0.130) with 461,775 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 121 of last 242 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 319 of last 441 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 105 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0138 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00645. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 155 of the last 192 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 91 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 21, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.625) with 7726 cases, Minnesota (0.481) with 977,707 cases, North Dakota (0.211) with 169,988 cases, Wyoming (0.169) with 113,906 cases, and Montana (0.140) with 195,171 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 122 of last 243 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 320 of last 442 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 462 of last 504 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 106 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0172 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0138. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 156 of the last 193 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 92 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

Yesterday the new case count was 181,264. This was the highest new case count since September 3, 2021 when it was 182,593.

Yesterday the new death count was 1811. This was the highest death count since October 20, 2021 when it was 2005.

Yesterday the US Growth Rate was 0.0172. This was the highest US Growth Rate since September 15, 2021 when it was 0.0174.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 22, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.322) with 7763 cases, Minnesota (0.261) with 980,400 cases, Wyoming (0.183) with 114,062 cases, North Dakota (0.174) with 170,371 cases, and New Hampshire (0.164) with 188,644 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 123 of last 244 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 321 of last 443 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 107 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 463 of last 505 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 21 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0172 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0138. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 0 states did not report new cases.

For 157 of the last 194 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 93 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

Yesterday the new case count was 232,383. This was the highest new case count since January 1, 2021 when it was 243,080.

Yesterday the US Growth Rate was 0.0219. This was the highest US Growth Rate since September 1, 2021 when it was 0.0219.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 23, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.712) with 7867 cases, Minnesota (0.316) with 983,636 cases, Tennessee (0.238) with 1,366,921 cases, Wyoming (0.194) with 114,242 cases, and North Dakota (0.183) with 170,784 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 124 of last 245 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 322 of last 444 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 108 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 464 of last 506 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0248 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0219. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases.

For 158 of the last 195 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 94 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

Yesterday the new case count was 267,269. This was the highest new case count since January 8, 2021 when it was 306,449. This number, 306,449, was the highest ever recorded.

Yesterday the US Growth Rate was 0.0248. This was the highest US Growth Rate since January 15, 2021 when it was 0.0266.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 24, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.567) with 8007 cases, Arkansas (0.196) with 548,967 cases, North Dakota (0.181) with 171,193 cases, Florida (0.160) with 3,911,566 cases, and New Jersey (0.097) with 1,410,275 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 125 of last 246 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 209 of last 489 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 465 of last 507 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0180 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0248. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases.

For 159 of the last 196 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 95 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 25, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.105) with 549,991 cases, New Jersey (0.092) with 1,429,756 cases, Delaware (0.087) with 171,563 cases, North Dakota (0.077) with 171,360 cases, and Arizona (0.038) with 1,354,708 cases. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 210 of last 490 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 466 of last 508 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00363 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0180. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states did not report new cases.

For 160 of the last 197 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 96 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 26, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Puerto Rico (0.124) with 231,902 cases, Delaware (0.066) with 172,827 cases, New Jersey (0.061) with 1,443,915 cases, Ohio (0.058) with 1,931,908 cases, and New York (0.053) with 3,297,004 cases.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00862 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00363. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases.

For 161 of the last 198 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 97 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 51 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 15% of the total US population.

Yesterday the new case count was 96,384. By itself this is a low number compared to recent new case counts. However, yesterdays number was the highest SUNDAY count since January 31, 2021, when it was 107,816. This may be a very bad week.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 27, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.564) with 8213 cases, Wyoming (0.375) with 114,624 cases, Minnesota (0.333) with 987,599 cases, Connecticut (0.238) with 489,211 cases, and Montana (0.227) with 196,044 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 126 of the last 249 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 52 of the last 112 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 323 of the last 448 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0202 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00862. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 162 of the last 199 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 98 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 53 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 16% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (December 19 to December 25).

The New Case Slope graph showed an large increase in the past week and continues in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 58 days.

The New Case Slope line continues the increasing trend. There was likely a delay in reporting caused by the holidays, and we will see further increases this week.

I predict new cases will continue to rise after the holiday season, at least for several weeks. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

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