Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 28, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.700) with 996,843 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.485) with 8477 cases, Wyoming (0.269) with 114,917 cases, Arkansas (0.235) with 553,808 cases, and Montana (0.230) with 196,453 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 324 of the last 449 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 127 of the last 250 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 53 of the last 113 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 211 of the last 493 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0266 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0202. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 163 of the last 200 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 99 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 53 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 16% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 29, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.578) with 1,001,676 cases, North Dakota (0.323) with 172,607 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.316) with 8725 cases, Arkansas (0.315) with 557,551 cases, and Montana (0.296) with 197,061 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 325 of the last 450 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 467 of the last 512 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 128 of the last 251 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 212 of the last 494 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0389 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0266. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 164 of the last 201 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 100 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 53 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 16% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

The growth rate for yesterday was 0.0389. This was the highest growth rate since December 3, 2020 when it was 0.0413.

New case count for yesterday was 465,670. This is 48% higher than the previous all time high on the day before.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 30, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.616) with 1,007,990 cases, North Dakota (0.406) with 173,379 cases, Wyoming (0.354) with 115,638 cases, Arkansas (0.337) with 562,529 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.332) with 9055 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 326 of the last 451 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 468 of the last 513 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 54 of the last 115 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 213 of the last 495 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 129 of the last 252 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0461 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0389. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 165 of the last 202 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 101 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 55 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 17% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

The growth rate for yesterday was 0.0461. This was the highest growth rate since April 25, 2020 when it was 0.0464.

New case count for yesterday was 572,029. This is 23% higher than the previous all time high on the day before.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 31, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.474) with 9648 cases, North Dakota (0.442) with 174,175 cases, Arkansas (0.210) with 566,486 cases, North Carolina (0.175) with 1,686,667 cases, and Florida (0.171) with 4,213,301 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 130 of the last 253 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 469 of the last 514 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 214 of the last 496 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0343 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0461. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases.

For 166 of the last 203 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 102 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 55 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 17% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.253) with 10,106 cases, North Dakota (0.222) with 174,626 cases, Arkansas (0.190) with 570,641 cases, Delaware (0.139) with 183,880 cases, and New Jersey (0.091) with 1,596,644 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 131 of the last 254 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 470 of the last 515 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 215 of the last 497 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0121 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0343. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 47 states did not report new cases.

For 167 of the last 204 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 103 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 55 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 17% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Puerto Rico (0.113) with 298,388 cases, Delaware (0.111) with 186,996 cases, Arkansas (0.086) with 572,822 cases, Ohio (0.077) with 2,053,721 cases, and New Jersey (0.068) with 1,623,096 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 216 of the last 498 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0137 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0121. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases.

For 168 of the last 205 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 104 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 56 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 17% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (December 26 to January 1).

The New Case Slope graph showed an huge increase in the past week and continues in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 40 days.

The New Case Slope line continues the increasing trend. There was likely a delay in reporting caused by the holidays, and we will see even further increases this week.

I predict new cases will continue to rise after the holiday season, at least for several weeks. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.757) with 116,643 cases, Minnesota (0.430) with 1,014,285 cases, Texas (0.305) with 4,752,113 cases, Montana (0.290) with 198,520 cases, and Connecticut (0258) with 533,866 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 55 of the last 119 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 327 of the last 454 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0310 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0137. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 11 states did not report new cases.

For 169 of the last 206 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 105 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 57 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 17% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.779) with 1,028,549 cases, North Dakota (0754) with 176,329 cases, Wyoming (0.607) with 117,389 cases, Guam (0.512) with 19,899 cases, Montana (0.301) with 199,455 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 328 of the last 455 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 471 of the last 518 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 56 of the last 120 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 15 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0390 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0310. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 170 of the last 207 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 106 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 58 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 17% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0719) with 177,812 cases, Wyoming (0.470) with 118,098 cases, New Hampshire (0.346) with 208,073 cases, Guam (0.305) with 20,088 cases, and Montana (0.295) with 200,558 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 472 of the last 519 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 57 of the last 121 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 16 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0461 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0390. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 171 of the last 208 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 107 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 58 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 18% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

Yesterday the new case count was 704,661. This was the highest new case count ever and was 23 % higher than the previous high of 572,029 on December 30, 2021.

Yesterday the growth rate was 0.0461. This was a tie with growth rate on December 30, 2021 and the highest since April 25, 2020 when it was 0.0464.

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