California to Ban the Sale of New Gasoline Cars

[matthew1]

California regulators on Thursday will vote to put in place a sweeping plan to restrict and ultimately ban the sale of gasoline-powered cars, state officials said, a move that the state’s governor described as the beginning of the end for the internal combustion engine.

The new policy, detailed Wednesday morning in a news conference, is widely expected to accelerate the global transition toward electric vehicles. Not only is California the largest auto market in the United States, but more than a dozen other states typically follow California’s lead when setting their own auto emissions standards.

If those states follow through, and most are expected to adopt similar rules, the restrictions would apply to about a third of the United States auto market.

“This is huge,” said Margo Oge, an electric vehicles expert who headed the Environmental Protection Agency’s transportation emissions program under Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. As additional states put in place their own versions of these policies, “they will drive the market, and drive innovation,” she said.

The rule, issued by the California Air Resources Board, will require that all new cars sold in the state by 2035 be free of greenhouse gas emissions like carbon dioxide. The rule also sets interim targets, requiring that 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold by 2026 produce zero emissions. That requirement climbs to 68 percent by 2030.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/clim ... sions.html

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[volvolugnut]

The end is near.

volvolugnut

[abscate]

We sell about 10% of the current rolling stock in North America each year…something like 30M cars sold, 300M on road

Current EV sales about 5% here.

The killer here is once car companies know this coming, they won’t wait until 2035, they will kill their gas platforms now.

I’ve gotten over my range anxiety , so when my s70 AWD finally dies n 2035 I’ll replace it then

[kallekula]

Im waiting for my wife to buy the new mustang suv. The GT model is wicked fast.
Im sure we’ll still have plenty of gasoline powered cars after that rolling around here.

[abscate]

One of the interesting fallouts from the evolution from ICE to EV

Demise of convenience stores. Essentially, stores now have to compete to get people to stop, easy when they need gas. Charging at home means no stop at the store for the paper, beef jerky, lotto, or other stuff at 300% margin - gas has been a loss leader or breakeven at convenience stores for a long time now.

[matthew1]

One of the interesting fallouts from the evolution from ICE to EV

Demise of convenience stores. Essentially, stores now have to compete to get people to stop, easy when they need gas. Charging at home means no stop at the store for the paper, beef jerky, lotto, or other stuff at 300% margin - gas has been a loss leader or breakeven at convenience stores for a long time now.

Very interesting.

[volvolugnut]

My thoughts on transition from gasoline to electric cars.

Once electric cars reach maybe 50-60% of cars in a market area, the gas stations of today will change. There will be two types. The upscale areas will have full service fuel stations with higher prices for the collectors to fuel their older vehicles or premium liquid fuel cars. There will also be cheap, run down fuel stations where people who cannot afford electric vehicles can buy cheaper fuel (likely only cheapest grades) and get cheap food, lottery tickets, and other stuff they need to get by.

Over time the premium liquid fuel grades will get harder to find and restricted to larger markets only.

Low grade gasoline may get unavailable and liquid fuel may be restricted to diesel only. Unless diesel fuel is made unavailable because of pollution restrictions.

BUT, I do not think I will see this happen in my remaining driving years.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

Washington state has announced they will also switch to all electric by 2035.
volvolugnut

[matthew1]

I'm writing a big 2k word essay on this. I'll publish it here on the MVS homepage today or tomorrow.

The gas station secondary effect you guys mention is a very interesting aspect I hadn't thought about.

[volvolugnut]

Think about the transition from horses to cars. The cars were first purchased in cities by well off people. It took years (decades?) before rural areas had many local owned cars.
One of my grandfathers used mules to farm up into the 1940's. I find it hard to imagine farm trucks becoming electric anytime in the next several decades. Of course trucks are not cars and will be a different situation. During grain harvest time, a farm truck will make multiple trips to a grain elevator in town each day. These grain storage facilities can be 25 to 50 miles away. These trucks would be fully loaded and likely get 6-8 MPG of diesel fuel. Refueling needs to be quick to allow getting back for another load while harvesters are running. The urgency is driven by potential losses from weather events.
volvolugnut