The EV Revolution, Stage One

[matthew1]

Q

IMO electric will not ever hit 100%. Other more viable options will appear in the next 10-20 years that will not require the initial mining of so many rare minerals.


A

Whatever it is better get cooking. These things take a decade just to get to the market (beginning Stage 1).

BMW has been messing around with hydrogen for 20 years... they say they'll market an SUV in 2025 with hydrogen power. All the power to them. I hope they're successful. EVs and H power can coexist. Both can be true.

I don't think H will catch up to EV. It's not a magic bullet and like any alternative comes with its own set of problems, (very) notably: fuel distribution.

[matthew1]

Q

Moving to EV puts the power to control you in the hands of few... Big (electrical) Energy.


A

Big Oil already has that power. You've been under that yoke your whole life.

There is a beautiful solution: EV and solar panels on your roof. Bingo -- you're then free of relying on anyone anywhere for fuel. People (not you) say "With an EV you're reliant on Big Energy." Well with a gas car it's the same thing. Prices at $5/gal a couple months ago -- you're at the mercy of Big Oil. Who says this couldn't go to $8 or $15/gal? There are no guarantees. But EV + solar is the first time an individual can be free of all that, all them. First time ever.

Or rather, it's the first time since the horse was a widespread means of travel.

[matthew1]

Q

EV-only fast lanes on freeways: what about the range or lack thereof at speed? Is that where the drafting comes into place? My biggest concern would be the larger amounts of energy to operate at that speed for longer periods of time.


A

Yes, this is a problem. Energy requirements rise at the square of speed... it's not linear. And yes, drafting would help with this a great deal.

When cars are in Level 5 (Stage 3 in my terminology) automation, range will also be higher. This will be 10 years in the future, so if you plot out the range gains, which should generally be linear with time, I speculate range will be 400-1000 miles. That of course depends on how much you spend on the EV, just as it is today.

So if your 1000 mile range EV joins one of these trains, let's say the energy is doubled and range halved, that's still 500 miles of travel at fantastic speed (for a public road).

[abscate]

The fixation that you need a personal vehicle to travel 500 miles straight is uniquely American and will die here last, but it will die

I hate Ev cars.

Elon will reach 1,000,000 units in 2022

[matthew1]

Q

And other than refining and making more efficient the batteries and electronic systems we already have, how do you think we will consistently achieve a range higher than 500+ miles in a reasonably affordable car? A completely new “battery” system?


A

It doesn't need to be completely new, but it may be. Science and Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand" (the market) have a way of improving things, especially in the early-mid years, which is where we are with EV (batteries). I don't see any problems hitting significant milestones in range this early in the EV (battery) tech/materials lifespan. It's typically at the end, when a technology is mature, that gains require an exponential effort to get the same rate of improvement.

Take AA (or any non-rechargeable) batteries for instance. They got much better between say 1960 and 1990, the Energizer Bunny days, but since then there's not a lot of progress because all the low hanging fruit had been picked. I'd say we're roughly at 1970 with EV batteries, as a comparison.

[matthew1]

The fixation that you need a personal vehicle to travel 500 miles straight is uniquely American and will die here last, but it will die

Geography plays a huge role here in the US. Out here in the west, there are huge expanses of Nothing™. I met a Czech young woman in Seattle in 2001-ish, and she took a month or two to drive around the US west. She came back and her mind was blown.

I get my own mind blown when I go to Moab, Utah for instance. There's so much damn space.

Because there are no borders for 3k miles across it, unlike Europe, car travel has one less impediment. And there are many less important but still significant standards like which side of the road we drive on, distance units, signage, driver's license validity, etc. It makes driving here a very simple and heterogenous experience.

If you include Canada and Mexico, you can drive for about 2 weeks at a relaxed pace before you run out of road, and that's just 3 countries.

Europe, the obvious analogy because of standard of living, geographically is:

Horizontal Width: 1,339 miles (2,154 km) from London, England, east to Kiev, Ukraine (see map)
Vertical Length: 2,076 miles (3,341 km) from Iraklio, Crete, north to Lulea, Sweden: (see map)

When Europeans get to their cities by train for travel, they typically don't need a car. We do, because our cities are crap for getting around. So another reason to drive.

The US built itself around cars, for better or worse. There's no going back now.

[abscate]

…and you will drive the West in 250 mile chunks in a 500 mile range EV. Adapt, improvise. Overcome


Adam Smiths invisible hand will price 1000 Mile EVs out of the market

[abscate]

Some math on getting free of big brother.

You need 10kWhr per day to meet your daily commuting need for the average commuter

You get 300 watts per square meter of panel optimized , and ergo 100 watts in practice

For 8 hours of sunshine, you need 12 square meters of to get your 10kWhr

That’s 36x36 feet of panel , which will cost you $20,000-25,000 before tax credits/rebates

That’s a lot 0f gas and electricity money

Check above for mistakes please.

My utility bills for my 2200 sq ft house are 130 in summer, 260 in winter, per month

[matthew1]

Grid talk

US installs record solar capacity as prices keep falling

This week, the US Department of Energy's Berkeley Lab released its annual analysis of solar energy in the US. It found that nearly half the generating capacity was installed in the US during 2021 and is poised to dominate future installs. That's in part because costs have dropped by more than 75 percent since 2010; it's now often cheaper to build and operate a solar plant than it is to simply buy fuel for an existing natural gas plant.

[abscate]

When Europeans get to their cities by train for travel, they typically don't need a car. We do, because our cities are crap for getting around. So another reason to drive.

The US built itself around cars, for better or worse. There's no going back now.

Its not going back when you never had it.

I think that is one of the things that is missed in this discussion, The 100 year era of the ICE engine is ending. The new technology will replace most of what it does, but lifestyles will change to adapt to the parts that cant.


Would you take that same trip to UT if you had to pay EU prices of $8 for gas? Of course you would.