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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 20 Nov 2022, 11:31
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 317,135 cases, West Virginia (0.220) with 612,262 cases, Guam (0.179) with 59,039 cases, New York (0.095) with 6,511,543 cases, and Arkansas (0.078) with 965,475 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 231 of the last 335 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 349 of the last 440 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 28 of the last 28 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 46 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 8 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00376 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00460. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 187 of last 293 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 10 Nov 2022, 08:45
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut
I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Nov 6 to Nov 19, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was up slightly for the past two weeks, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day and 14 day were roughly flat the past two weeks. The 21 day Days to Double was down slightly for the past two weeks. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average increased for the past two weeks.

Comments: It looks to me that Covid cases are about to increase at least a little. Not unexpected with cooler weather and more inside activities with crowds. But many more people have some vaccination protection this year.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 08:43
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 317,135 cases, West Virginia (0.214) with 612,710 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.121) with 23,483 cases, Guam (0.120) with 59,189 cases, and New York (0.088) with 6,515,118 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 232 of the last 336 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 350 of the last 441 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 125 of the last 152 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 29 of the last 29 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 28 of the last 47 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00832 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00376. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 188 of last 294 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 22 Nov 2022, 08:25
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 317,135 cases, West Virginia (0.209) with 612,916 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.133) with 23,488 cases, Guam (0.120) with 59,189 cases, and New York (0.087) with 6,518,480 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 233 of the last 337 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 351 of the last 442 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 126 of the last 153 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 30 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 29 of the last 48 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0125 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00832. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 188 of last 295 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 23 Nov 2022, 08:13
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 317,135 cases, West Virginia (0.216) with 613,165 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.139) with 23,495 cases, Guam (0.120) with 59,189 cases, and New York (0.086) with 6,521,902 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 234 of the last 338 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 352 of the last 443 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 127 of the last 154 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 31 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 49 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0272 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0125. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 188 of last 296 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 24 Nov 2022, 07:51
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 317,135 cases, West Virginia (0.168) with 613,165 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.130) with 23,495 cases, Guam (0.120) with 59,189 cases, and New York (0.086) with 6,527,053 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 235 of the last 339 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 353 of the last 444 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 128 of the last 155 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 32 of the last 32 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 50 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00964 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0272. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 47 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 189 of last 297 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 25 Nov 2022, 08:13
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 318,105 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.130) with 23,495 cases, West Virginia (0.126) with 613,165 cases, Guam (0.120) with 59,189 cases, and New York (0.082) with 6,530,796 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 236 of the last 340 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 129 of the last 156 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 354 of the last 445 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 33 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 32 of the last 51 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00681 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00964. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 50 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 190 of last 298 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 26 Nov 2022, 07:38
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.132) with 318,105 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.130) with 23,495 cases, West Virginia (0.126) with 613,165 cases, Guam (0.120) with 59,189 cases, and Arkansas (0.077) with 967,113 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 237 of the last 341 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 130 of the last 157 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 355 of the last 446 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 34 of the last 34 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 14 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00212 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00681 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 191 of last 299 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 27 Nov 2022, 17:06
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 27, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.132) with 318,105 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.130) with 23,495 cases, West Virginia (0.126) with 613,165 cases, Guam (0.120) with 59,189 cases, and Arkansas (0.087) with 967,464 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 238 of the last 342 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 131 of the last 158 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 356 of the last 447 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 35 of the last 35 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 15 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00445 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00212 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 192 of last 300 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 08:14
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.180) with 59,330 cases, West Virginia (0.137) with 614,030 cases, Montana (0.132) with 318,105 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.110) with 23,509 cases, and Arkansas (0.086) with 967,626 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 36 of the last 36 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 357 of the last 448 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 239 of the last 343 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 132 of the last 159 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 16 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0103 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00445 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 192 of last 301 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


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