Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 20, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.278) with 639,246 cases, Guam (0.167) with 60,947 cases, Montana (0.122) with 327,877 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.084) with 24,705 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,936,967 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 441 of the last 532 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 119 of the last 120 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 315 of the last 427 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 215 of the last 243 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 109 of the last 138 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00224 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00171. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 49 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 239 of last 385 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 104 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


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volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 21, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.278) with 639,246 cases, Guam (0.167) with 60,947 cases, Montana (0.122) with 327,877 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.104) with 24,736 cases, and Arkansas (0.079) with 1,003,117 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 442 of the last 533 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 120 of the last 121 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 316 of the last 428 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 216 of the last 244 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00610 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00224. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 240 of last 386 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 22, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.358) with 640,150 cases, Guam (0.130) with 60,947 cases, Montana (0.122) with 327,877 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.092) with 24,741 cases, and Arkansas (0.081) with 1,003,502 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 443 of the last 534 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 121 of the last 122 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 317 of the last 429 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 217 of the last 245 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0108 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00610. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 240 of last 387 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last three weeks (January 29 to February 18, 2023).

The New Case Slope graph was up sightly for the past three weeks but continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were nearly flat for the past three weeks. New Case Count average decreased for the past three weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased slightly for the past three weeks.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[BlackBart]

What was the big spike in Jan 2022?

[volvolugnut]

That was the second winter of Covid-19 when new cases spiked sharply. The slope (rate of change of new case counts) shows how suddenly cases went up during the holidays and then dropped again in a few weeks.
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 23, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.348) with 640,150 cases, Guam (0.130) with 60,947 cases, Montana (0.122) with 327,877 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.100) with 24,756 cases, and Arkansas (0.080) with 1,003,809 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 444 of the last 535 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 122 of the last 123 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 318 of the last 430 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 218 of the last 246 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00819 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0108. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 240 of last 388 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 24, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.335) with 640,150 cases, Montana (0.151) with 328,668 cases, Guam (0.130) with 60,947 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.095) with 24,757 cases, and Arkansas (0.080) with 1,003,809 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 445 of the last 536 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 319 of the last 431 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 123 of the last 124 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 219 of the last 247 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00602 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00819. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 46 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 241 of last 389 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 25, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.322) with 640,150 cases, Montana (0.151) with 328,668 cases, Guam (0.130) with 60,947 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.091) with 24,757 cases, and Arkansas (0.084) with 1,004,294 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 446 of the last 537 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 320 of the last 432 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 124 of the last 125 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 220 of the last 248 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00188 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00602. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 242 of last 390 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 26, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.307) with 640,150 cases, Guam (0.130) with 60,947 cases, Montana (0.127) with 328,668 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.089) with 24,757 cases, and Arkansas (0.082) with 1,004,353 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 447 of the last 538 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 125 of the last 126 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 321 of the last 433 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 221 of the last 249 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00177 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00188. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 242 of last 391 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut