Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.403) with 114,102 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.378) with 3970 cases, Minnesota (0.295) with 606,034 cases, North Dakota (0.235) with 110,779 cases, and Arkansas (0.212) with 353,095 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 96 of last 189 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 76 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 227 of last 336 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 283 of last 336 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 149 of last 319 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00346 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00239. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 22 of the last 26 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. Yesterday the number of active cases increased slightly. There had previously been 36 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.234) with 110,808 cases, Arkansas (0.230) with 354,305 cases, Wyoming (0.226) with 62,865 cases, Montana (0.203) with 114,189 cases, and Oklahoma (0.197) with 460,131 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 284 of last 337 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 150 of last 320 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 151 of last 291 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 97 of last 190 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 50 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00398 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00346 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 22 of the last 27 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 37 of last 38 days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 9, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.236) with 460,682 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.202) with 4005 cases, Tennessee (0.197) with 869,752 cases, Arkansas (0.192) with 355,460 cases, and Minnesota (0.176) with 606,297 cases. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 51 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 78 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 151 of last 321 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 228 of last 338 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00561 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00398 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

The growth rate for yesterday (0.00561) is the highest since May 14, 2021 when it was 0.00615. The number of new cases yesterday was 27,237. This was the highest number of new cases since May 21, 2021 when it was 29,014.

For 22 of the last 28 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 37 of last 39 days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 10, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.248) with 4033 cases, North Dakota (0.184) with 110,848 cases, Arizona (0.058) with 900,636 cases, Delaware (0.048) with 110,019 cases, and Florida (0.046) with 2,406,727 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 38 of last 79 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 285 of last 339 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00299 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00561 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases.

For 23 of the last 29 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 37 of last 40 days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (July 4 to July 10). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week and rose above zero for the first week since the end of April 2021. Days to Double graph had an decrease for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This week the new case count has increased from last week. This is the second week of increase in the new case count since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and Washington Post published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending July 11, 2021.
The top 5 states are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, and New Jersey. The bottom 5 states are Mississippi, Louisiana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Alabama. These top and bottom states do not change much from week to week.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 78.58 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 50.36 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 64.32 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus.

Progress continues for top five, and US state averages. The bottom 5 states show less change.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Delaware (0.079) with 110,074 cases, Arizona (0.057) with 901,439 cases, North Dakota (0.055) with 110,857 cases, Ohio (0.033) with 1,114,267 cases, and New Jersey (0.019) with 1,026,071 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 286 of last 340 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00136 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00299 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases.

For 24 of the last 30 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 41 days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.289) with 63,138 cases, Guam (0.230) with 8454 cases, Mississippi (0.217) with 324,853 cases, Minnesota (0.215) with 606,484 cases, and Oklahoma (0.112) with 461,893 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 152 of last 295 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 101 days. Mississippi has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 19 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 229 of last 341 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 54 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00411 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00136 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 24 of the last 31 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 42 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 13, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.413) with 606,870 cases, North Dakota (0.268) with 110,899 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.257) with 4071 cases, Massachusetts (0.211) with 711,446 cases, and Arkansas (0.201) with 358,949 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 230 of last 342 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 286 of last 342 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 82 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 152 of last 325 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00593 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00411 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases. Yesterday's growth rate was the highest since May 14, 2021 when it was 0.00615.

For 24 of the last 32 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 43 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 14, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.303) with 4104 cases, Oklahoma (0.302) with 463,152 cases, Minnesota (0.210) with 607,069 cases, Montana (0.205) with 114,508 cases, and New Hampshire (0.200) with 99,840 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 83 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 56 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 231 of last 343 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 98 of last 196 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 220 of last 376 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00726 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00593 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases. Yesterday's growth rate was the highest since May 7, 2021 when it was 0.00742.

For 24 of the last 33 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. The growth rate has been above 0.003 for the last 3 days.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 44 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

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