Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

For some unknown reason, I did not get these results of August 8 posted yesterday. They are posted here.

State growth rates for August 8, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Delaware (0.084) with 112,772 cases, North Dakota (0.070) with 112,336 cases, Arizona (0.062) with 946,054 cases, Arkansas (0.057) with 404,277 cases, and Ohio (0.056) with 1,142,330 cases. Delaware has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 23 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 303 of last 368 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 157 of last 351 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00404 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0115. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases.

For 32 of the last 58 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 69 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 10, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.259) with 620,591 cases, North Dakota (0.237) with 112,560 cases, Guam (0.230) with 8769 cases, Montana (0.223) with 118,754 cases, and Wyoming (0.195) with 67,326 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 244 of last 310 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 304 of last 370 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 130 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 109 of last 223 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 163 of last 324 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0163 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0169. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 34 of the last 60 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 32 of last 71 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 11, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.268) with 622,216 cases, North Dakota (0.242) with 112,744 cases, Guam (0.211) with 8817 cases, South Dakota (0.189) with 126,454 cases, and Wyoming (0.154) with 67,582 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 245 of last 311 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 305 of last 371 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 131 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 164 of last 325 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0230 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0163. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, no states did not report new cases.

For 35 of the last 61 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 72 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 12, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.234) with 102,659 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.232) with 5169 cases, Wyoming (0.198) with 67,957 cases, Minnesota (0.189) with 623,527 cases, and Guam (0.179) with 8865 cases. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 224 of last 405 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 112 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 165 of last 326 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 246 of last 312 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 132 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0225 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0230. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 36 of the last 62 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 34 of last 73 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 13, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.514) with 171,950 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.208) with 5242 cases, North Dakota (0.182) with 113,063 cases, Minnesota (0.171) with 624,851 cases, and New Hampshire (0.160) with 102,901 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 113 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 306 of last 373 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 247 of last 313 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 224 of last 406 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0240 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0225. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 37 of the last 63 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 35 of last 74 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 14, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.169) with 113,225 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.132) with 5295 cases, Delaware (0.093) with 114,187 cases, Arkansas (0.084) with 418,290 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.072) with 1,252,836 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 307 of last 374 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 114 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 158 of last 357 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0108 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0240. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases.

For 38 of the last 64 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 36 of last 75 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (August 8 to August 14). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week, but not the sharp rise of the previous several weeks. The slope is now similar to mid December and mid November 2020. Days to Double graph had an decrease for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double for the 7 day count is now at 42 days (similar to the end of January 2021). This week the new case count has increased sharply from the previous week. This is the sixth week of increase in the new case count since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[MoVolvos]

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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 15, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.106) with 113,330 cases, Delaware (0.078) with 114,486 cases, Pennsylvania (0.069) with 1,254,818 cases, Puerto Rico (0.059) with 158,169 cases, and Arkansas (0.059) with 419,807 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 308 of last 375 days. Delaware has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 16 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 159 of last 358 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00464 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0108. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

For 39 of the last 65 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 37 of last 76 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 16, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.324) with 9018 cases, Wyoming (0.322) with 68,944 cases, Montana (0.173) with 120,325 cases, Minnesota (0.171) with 626,310 cases, and Connecticut (0.133) with 363,417 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 136 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 166 of last 330 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 110 of last 229 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 348 of last 316 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0155 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00464. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 40 of the last 66 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 38 of last 77 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut