Coronavirus Thread

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More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 31, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.299) with 649,964 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.283) with 5924 cases, North Dakota (0.250) with 117,497 cases, Montana (0.184) with 127,227 cases, and Guam (0.152) with 10,559 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 257 of last 330 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 61 of last 131 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 321 of last 391 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 120 of last 244 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 151 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0187 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0146. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 55 of the last 81 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 53 of last 92 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 1, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.253) with 76,007 cases, North Dakota (0.203) with 117,955 cases, Montana (0.172) with 128,098 cases, Arkansas (0.128) with 455,781 cases, and Guam (0.128) with 10,740 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 173 of last 346 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 322 of last 392 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 121 of last 245 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 162 of last 375 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 152 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0219 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0187. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 56 of the last 82 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 54 of last 93 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 2, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.219) with 118,491 cases, Minnesota (0.163) with 653,288 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.150) with 5961 cases, Oklahoma (0.146) with 557,770 cases, and Wyoming (0.143) with 76,602 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 323 of last 393 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 258 of last 332 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 62 of last 133 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 106 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 174 of last 347 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0208 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0219. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 57 of the last 83 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 55 of last 94 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 3, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.170) with 655,418 cases, North Dakota (0.159) with 118,931 cases, Wyoming (0.145) with 77,206 cases, Oklahoma (0.135) with 560,850 cases, and New Hampshire (0.130) with 108,713 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 259 of last 333 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 324 of last 394 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 175 of last 348 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 107 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0211 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0208. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 58 of the last 84 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 56 of last 95 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 4, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.373) with 6026 cases, North Dakota (0.155) with 119,383 cases, Arkansas (0.102) with 462,723 cases, Ohio (0.077) with 1,247,637 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.075) with 1,316,505 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 135 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 325 of last 395 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 163 of last 378 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00669 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0211. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 36 states did not report new cases.

For 59 of the last 85 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 57 of last 96 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (August 29 to September 4). The New Case Slope graph shows a decrease in the past week, the third week of decline since early May. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count had increases this week and 43 days for the 21 day line. These increases are a glimmer of good news. This week the new case count has increased from the previous week. This is the ninth week of increase in the new case count since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 5, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.076) with 197,984 cases, Ohio (0.064) with 1,253,198 cases, North Dakota (0.058) with 119,556 cases, Guam (0.048) with 11,292 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.047) with 1,319,681 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 326 of last 396 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 60 of last 156 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00404 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00669. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases.

For 60 of the last 86 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 58 of last 97 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 6, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.063) with 199,300 cases, North Dakota (0.049) with 119,692 cases, Ohio (0.044) with 1,257,142 cases, Vermont (0.043) with 29,125 cases, and Arkansas (0.040) with 464,732 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 327 of last 397 days. Ohio has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 10 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 164 of last 380 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00449 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00404. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 61 of the last 87 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 59 of last 98 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 7, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.249) with 6071 cases, Tennessee (0.175) with 1,109,923 cases, Wyoming (0.157) with 78,495 cases, Montana (0.100) with 130,705 cases, and North Dakota (0.100) with 119,963 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 138 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 176 of last 352 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 122 of last 251 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 328 of last 398 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0121 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00449. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 62 of the last 88 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 60 of last 99 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 8, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.247) with 120,602 cases, Wyoming (0.230) with 79,297 cases, Minnesota (0.190) with 663,248 cases, Montana (0.164) with 131,752 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.161) with 6102 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 329 of last 399 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 177 of last 353 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 260 of last 338 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 123 of last 252 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 139 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0175 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0121. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 63 of the last 89 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 61 of last 100 days with increasing active case numbers. The active case count for yesterday (41,397,587) was the highest ever reported. The count exceeded the previous peak of January 24, 2021.

Deaths reported yesterday were 1700. This is the highest new deaths report since March 18, 2021 when the count was 1705.

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