Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 5, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.327) with 725,451 cases, North Dakota (0.220) with 134,922 cases, Wyoming (0.170) with 92,517 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.157) with 6873 cases, and New Hampshire (0.113) with 122,450 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 274 of last 365 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 403 of last 426 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 193 of last 380 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 84 of last 166 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 33 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00967 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00748. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 88 of the last 116 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 83 of last 127 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 6, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.197) with 135,728 cases, Minnesota (0.191) with 729,334 cases, Wyoming (0.173) with 93,083 cases, New Hampshire (0.142) with 122,934 cases, and West Virginia (0.123) with 247,806 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 404 of last 427 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 275 of last 366 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 194 of last 381 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 34 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 30 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0110 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00967. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, all states reported new cases.

For 89 of the last 117 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 84 of last 128 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 7, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.185) with 6916 cases, Wyoming (0.182) with 93,764 cases, New Hampshire (0.174) with 123,562 cases, North Dakota (0.161) with 136,433 cases, and Oklahoma (0.149) with 622,335 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 85 of last 168 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 195 of last 382 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 35 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 405 of last 428 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 141 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0104 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0110. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 90 of the last 118 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 85 of last 129 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 8, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.163) with 124,208 cases, Minnesota (0.158) with 735,646 cases, North Dakota (0.154) with 137,126 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 94,303 cases, and West Virginia (0.126) with 250,800 cases. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 36 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 276 of last 368 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 406 of last 429 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 196 of last 383 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 32 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0108 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0104. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 91 of the last 119 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 86 of last 130 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 9, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.324) with 625,834 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.162) with 6950 cases, North Dakota (0.123) with 137,678 cases, Arkansas (0.114) with 502,405 cases, and West Virginia (0.106) with 252,067 cases. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 143 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 86 of last 170 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 407 of last 430 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 172 of last 413 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 33 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00431 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0108. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 33 states did not report new cases.

For 92 of the last 120 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 86 of last 131 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (October 3 to October 9). The New Case Slope graph showed a decrease in the past week and continues negative. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count had increases this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 77 days.

This week the new case count average decreased from the previous week and continues a downward trend started five weeks ago. I am going to predict (and hope) this trend continues and cases drop until the Thanksgiving holiday week. Perhaps this increase will occur after school Fall breaks or Halloween parties. I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 10, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.091) with 253,138 cases, North Dakota (0.063) with 137,951 cases, Arkansas (0.059) with 502,872 cases, Ohio (0.050) with 1,467,331 cases, and Vermont (0.044) with 35,672 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 34 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 408 of last 431 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 173 of last 414 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00252 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00431. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases.

For 92 of the last 121 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days. Yesterday, the growth rate, 0.00252, was the lowest since July 18, 2021 when it was 0.00192.

Daily active case counts have a slight increase the last several weeks. There have been 6 of last 20 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 11, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.224) with 95,137 cases, Minnesota (0.127) with 738,843 cases, West Virginia (0.067) with 253,895 cases, North Dakota (0.060) with 138,181 cases, and Oklahoma (0.048) with 627,699 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 35 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 277 of last 371 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 35 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 409 of last 432 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 145 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00515 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00252. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases.

For 93 of the last 122 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a slight increase the last several weeks. There have been 7 of last 21 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 12, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.324) with 746,768 cases, North Dakota (0.193) with 138,902 cases, Montana (0.177) with 160,896 cases, Wyoming (0.149) with 95,620 cases, and New Hampshire (0.111) with 126,229 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 278 of last 372 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 410 of last 433 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 136 of last 286 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 36 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 40 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00860 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00515. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 94 of the last 123 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a slight increase the last several weeks. There have been 8 of last 22 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 13, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.171) with 139,563 cases, South Dakota (0.166) with 149,337 cases, Wyoming (0.139) with 96,059 cases, New Hampshire (0.138) with 126,773 cases, and Oklahoma (0.128) with 629,512 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 411 of last 434 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 37 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 41 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 146 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0103 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00860. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 95 of the last 124 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a slight increase the last several weeks. There have been 8 of last 23 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut