Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.301) with 382,958 cases, North Dakota (0.262) with 194,478 cases, Arkansas (0.135) with 675,790 cases, Arizona (0.107) with 1,588,155 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.107) with 13,760 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 65 of the last 131 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 481 of the last 529 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 218 of the last 511 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 132 of the last 268 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0181 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0386. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 181 of the last 218 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 117 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 66 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 20% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (January 9 to January 15).

The New Case Slope graph showed an another increase in the past week and continues in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 14 and 21 day count decreased the past week. The The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 22 days. The Days to Double for the 7 day count increased slightly the past week. We may soon see a change in the new case trend.

The New Case Slope line continues the increasing trend, but at a reduced rate.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.209) with 387,115 cases, North Dakota (0.109) with 195,530 cases, Vermont (0.089) with 90,668 cases, Arizona (0.085) with 1,609,792 cases, and Ohio (0.063) with 2,384,107 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 66 of the last 132 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 482 of the last 530 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0127 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0181. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases.

For 182 of the last 219 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 118 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 66 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 20% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.175) with 390,788 cases, North Dakota (0.088) with 196,299 cases, Connecticut (0.080) with 653,416 cases, Guam (0.072) with 23,581 cases, and Ohio (0.045) with 2,403,645 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 67 of the last 133 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 483 of the last 531 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 14 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0169 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0127. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 32 states did not report new cases.

For 183 of the last 220 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 119 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 67 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 20% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.461) with 130,553 cases, North Dakota (0.419) with 199,213 cases, Montana (0.342) with 215,988 cases, Minnesota (0.242) with 1,120,308 cases, and Guam (0.164) with 24,218 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 65 of the last 134 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 484 of the last 532 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 29 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 336 of the last 469 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 15 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0232 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0169. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 184 of the last 221 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 120 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 68 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 21% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (1.13) with 1,160,558 cases, North Dakota (0.418) with 202,333 cases, Wyoming (0.240) with 132,145 cases, West Virginia (0.209) with 396,343 cases, and Guam (0.180) with 25,033 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 337 of the last 470 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 485 of the last 533 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 66 of the last 135 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 68 of the last 135 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 16 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0292 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0232. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 185 of the last 222 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 121 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 69 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 21% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.714) with 1,170,795 cases, North Dakota (0.360) with 205,338 cases, West Virginia (0.343) with 401,796 cases, Wyoming (0.190) with 133,495 cases, and Montana (0.182) with 220,090 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 338 of the last 471 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 486 of the last 534 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 69 of the last 136 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 67 of the last 136 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 31 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0277 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0292. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 186 of the last 223 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 122 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 70 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 21% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.522) with 1,179,775 cases, West Virginia (0.340) with 407,131 cases, North Dakota (0.279) with 208,000 cases, Wyoming (0.255) with 135,369 cases, and Montana (0.159) with 222,093 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 339 of the last 472 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 70 of the last 137 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 487 of the last 535 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 68 of the last 137 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 32 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0304 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0277. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 187 of the last 224 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 123 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 71 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 21% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.388) with 413,631 cases, North Dakota (0.228) with 210,478 cases, Arkansas (0.080) with 734,834 cases, Arizona (0.079) with 1,729,630 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.077) with 14,398 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 71 of the last 138 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 488 of the last 536 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 218 of the last 518 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 133 of the last 275 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0119 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0304. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 33 states did not report new cases.

For 188 of the last 225 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 124 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 71 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 21% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (January 16 to January 22).

The New Case Slope graph showed a change in direction and decrease in the past week but continues in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 23 days. We may be seeing a long term change in the new case trend.

The New Case Slope line changed to decreasing this past week, with a significant drop.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut