Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.178) with 822,900 cases, North Dakota (0.097) with 238,702 cases, Ohio (0.031) with 1,659,138 cases, Delaware (0.019) with 257,181 cases, and Guam (0.014) with 45,489 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 229 of the last 560 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 522 of the last 578 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 61 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000634 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00178. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases.

For 18 of the last 22 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 28 of last 33 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (February 27 to March 5, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed an increase in the past week but continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased sharply the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 339 days.

The Growth Rate of new cases has dropped sharply from a few weeks ago down to a level similar to July 2021 and near all time low.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.083) with 823,210 cases, North Dakota (0.074) with 238,753 cases, Delaware (0.016) with 257,270 cases, Ohio (0.013) with 2,659,498 cases, and Guam (0.013) with 45,542 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 230 of the last 561 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 523 of the last 579 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 62 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

Yesterday the new case count at 4,903, was the lowest since July 4, 2021, when it was 4,169.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000194 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000634. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday the growth rate was 0.000194, was the lowest since February 27, 2022, when it was 0.000194. Both lows were on Sundays when few states report.

For 19 of the last 23 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 29 of last 34 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.183) with 155,492 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.147) with 15,440 cases, Minnesota (0.143) with 1,418,694 cases, Montana (0.112) with 271,191 cases, and Connecticut (0.107) with 727,542 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 98 of the last 182 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 143 of the last 319 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 355 of the last 517 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 36 of the last 77 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00102 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000194. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 20 of the last 24 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 35 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.249) with 1,420,149 cases, North Dakota (0.198) with 238,863 cases, Wyoming (0.180) with 155,558 cases, West Virginia (0.153) with 493,653 cases, and Montana (0.137) with 271,336 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 356 of the last 518 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 524 of the last 581 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 99 of the last 183 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 106 of the last 183 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 37 of the last 78 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00119 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00102. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 12 states did not report new cases.

For 21 of the last 25 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 31 of last 36 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.298) with 155,629 cases, North Dakota (0.243) with 238,955 cases, West Virginia (0.238) with 494,030 cases, Arkansas (0.184) with 824,469 cases, and Montana (0.136) with 271,464 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 100 of the last 184 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 525 of the last 582 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 107 of the last 184 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 231 of the last 564 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 38 of the last 79 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00158 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00119. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 22 of the last 26 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 32 of last 37 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.262) with 494,406 cases, Wyoming (0.228) with 155,686 cases, North Dakota (0.221) with 239,043 cases, Arkansas (0.187) with 824,988 cases, and Minnesota (0.140) with 1,421,312 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 108 of the last 185 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 101 of the last 185 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 526 of the last 583 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 232 of the last 565 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 357 of the last 580 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00154 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00158. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 12 states did not report new cases.

For 23 of the last 27 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 38 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.359) with 494,875 cases, Arkansas (0.248) with 825,653 cases, Wyoming (0.237) with 155,744 cases, North Dakota (0.196) with 239,125 cases, and New Hampshire (0.177) with 300,185 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 109 of the last 186 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 233 of the last 566 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 102 of the last 186 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 527 of the last 584 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 43 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00160 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00154. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 24 of the last 28 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 34 of last 39 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.213) with 826,201 cases, North Dakota (0.145) with 239,189 cases, Guam (0.032) with 46,299 cases, Ohio (0.025) with 2,663,518 cases, and Delaware (0.021) with 258,116 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 234 of the last 567 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 528 of the last 585 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 32 of the last 68 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000502 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00160. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases.

For 25 of the last 29 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 35 of last 40 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (March 6 to March 12, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed an increase in the past week but continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased sharply the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 484 days.

The Growth Rate of new cases has dropped sharply from a few weeks ago down to a level similar to July 2021 and an all time low. This week the Average Growth Rate was 0.0011 and in June 2021 it was 0.0018.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut