Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.169) with 523,876 cases, Montana (0.155) with 280,965 cases, Guam (0.150) with 50,217 cases, Minnesota (0.117) with 1,532,528 cases, and Arkansas (0.100) with 851,275 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 190 of the last 281 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 99 of the last 176 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 88 of the last 160 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 435 of the last 676 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 6 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0230 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0158. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 27 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 83 of last 134 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.174) with 524,432 cases, Montana (0.155) with 280,965 cases, Guam (0.148) with 50,364 cases, Minnesota (0.117) with 1,533,884 cases, and Arkansas (0.095) with 852,229 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 191 of the last 282 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 100 of the last 177 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 89 of the last 161 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 436 of the last 677 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 7 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0312 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0230. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 83 of last 135 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.184) with 525,086 cases, Guam (0.163) with 50,485 cases, Montana (0.155) with 280,965 cases, Minnesota (0.113) with 1,535,427 cases, and North Dakota (0.102) with 247,303 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 192 of the last 283 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 90 of the last 162 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 101 of the last 178 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 437 of the last 678 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 25 of the last 44 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0236 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0312. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 84 of last 136 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.150) with 525,086 cases, Guam (0.146) with 50,608 cases, Montana (0.141) with 283,054 cases, Minnesota (0.112) with 1,537,314 cases, and Arkansas (0.095) with 854,009 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 193 of the last 284 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 91 of the last 163 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 102 of the last 179 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 438 of the last 679 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 9 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0254 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0236. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 84 of last 137 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.150) with 525,086 cases, Guam (0.146) with 50,608 cases, Montana (0.141) with 283,054 cases, Minnesota (0.112) with 1,537,314 cases, and Arkansas (0.094) with 854,717 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 194 of the last 285 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 92 of the last 164 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 103 of the last 180 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 439 of the last 680 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 10 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00395 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0254. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 85 of last 138 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.284) with 162,160 cases, West Virginia (0.150) with 525,086 cases, Guam (0.146) with 50,608 cases, Montana (0.141) with 283,054 cases, and Minnesota (0.112) with 1,537,314 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 195 of the last 286 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 93 of the last 165 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 104 of the last 181 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 440 of the last 681 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00564 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00395. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 86 of last 139 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (June 12 to June 18, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was flat from the past week, and still in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day and 21 day count were up slightly the past week. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average decreased slightly for the week.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.284) with 162,160 cases, Guam (0.141) with 50,773 cases, Montana (0.141) with 283,054 cases, West Virginia (0.130) with 525,086 cases, and Minnesota (0.096) with 1,537,314 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 94 of the last 166 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 105 of the last 182 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 196 of the last 287 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 441 of the last 682 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00735 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00564. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 87 of last 140 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.284) with 162,160 cases, Guam (0.144) with 50,887 cases, Montana (0.141) with 283,054 cases, West Virginia (0.121 with 527,437 cases, and North Dakota (0.115) with 248,099 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 95 of the last 167 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 106 of the last 183 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 197 of the last 288 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 26 of the last 49 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0274 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00725. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 87 of last 141 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.141) with 283,054 cases, North Dakota (0.138) with 248,346 cases, Guam (0.132) with 51,009 cases, West Virginia (0.124) with 528,049 cases, and Arkansas (0.084) with 857,119 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 107 of the last 184 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 50 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 96 of the last 168 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 198 of the last 289 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 14 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0296 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0274. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 87 of last 142 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut