Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.207) with 561,275 cases, Wyoming (0.136) with 171,322 cases, Montana (0.116) with 298,746 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.107) with 21,957 cases, and New York (0.089) with 6,034,394 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 243 of the last 334 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 38 of the last 39 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 149 of the last 229 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 39 of the last 45 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 4 of the last 4 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00346 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0237. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 106 of last 187 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.207) with 561,275 cases, Wyoming (0.136) with 171,322 cases, Montana (0.116) with 298,746 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.107) with 21,957 cases, and New York (0.088) with 6,038,801 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 244 of the last 335 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 39 of the last 40 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 150 of the last 230 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 40 of the last 46 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00321 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00346. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 107 of last 188 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (July 31 to Aug 6, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was down from the past week, and moved into negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double was up slightly the past week. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average decreased sharply for the week.

The past several weeks have had little change in any of the measurements.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 563,384 cases, Wyoming (0.136) with 171,322 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.117) with 22,016 cases, Montana (0.116) with 298,746 cases, and New York (0.084) with 6,044,342 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 245 of the last 336 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 40 of the last 41 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 41 of the last 47 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 151 of the last 231 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0116 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00321. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 108 of last 189 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.200) with 564,323 cases, Wyoming (0.136) with 171,322 cases, Montana (0.116) with 298,746 cases, North Dakota (0.093) with 259,741 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.090) with 22,026 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 246 of the last 337 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 41 of the last 42 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 152 of the last 232 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 43 of the last 98 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 42 of the last 48 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0153 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0116. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 28 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 108 of last 190 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.204) with 565,399 cases, Wyoming (0.127) with 172,473 cases, Montana (0.116) with 298,746 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.097) with 22,075 cases, and North Dakota (0.089) with 260,143 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 247 of the last 338 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 42 of the last 43 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 153 of the last 233 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 43 of the last 49 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 44 of the last 99 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0251 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0153. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 12 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 108 of last 191 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.208) with 566,420 cases, Wyoming (0.127) with 172,473 cases, Montana (0.116) with 298,746 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.107) with 22,108 cases, and North Dakota (0.091) with 260,507 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 248 of the last 339 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 43 of the last 44 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 154 of the last 234 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 44 of the last 50 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 45 of the last 100 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0204 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0251. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 109 of last 192 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.206) with 567,426 cases, Wyoming (0.127) with 172,473 cases, Montana (0.116) with 300,607 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.100) with 22,108 cases, and North Dakota (0.085) with 260,778 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 249 of the last 340 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 44 of the last 45 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 155 of the last 235 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 45 of the last 51 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 46 of the last 101 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0220 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0204. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 109 of last 193 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.206) with 567,426 cases, Wyoming (0.127) with 172,473 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.118) with 22,135 cases, Montana (0.116) with 300,607 cases, and North Dakota (0.085) with 260,778 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 250 of the last 341 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 45 of the last 46 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 46 of the last 52 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 156 of the last 236 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 47 of the last 102 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00311 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0220. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 51 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 110 of last 194 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.206) with 567,426 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.136) with 22,135 cases, Wyoming (0.127) with 172,473 cases, Montana (0.116) with 300,607 cases, and North Dakota (0.085) with 260,778 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 251 of the last 342 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 47 of the last 53 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 46 of the last 47 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 157 of the last 237 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 48 of the last 103 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00241 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00311. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 51 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 111 of last 195 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut