Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 7, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.254) with 640,150 cases, Montana (0.152) with 329,386 cases, Guam (0.122) with 60,982 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.109) with 24,795 cases, and Arkansas (0.087) with 1,006,336 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 456 of the last 547 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 330 of the last 442 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 134 of the last 135 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 230 of the last 258 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 15 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00566 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00313. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 251 of last 400 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 8, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.253) with 643,270 cases, Montana (0.152) with 329,386 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.107) with 24,798 cases, Arkansas (0.089) with 1,006,622 cases, and Guam (0.088) with 60,982 cases. West Virginia has been in the top states for 457 of the last 548 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 331 of the last 443 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 231 of the last 259 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 16 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 135 of the last 136 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00994 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00556. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 33 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 251 of last 401 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 9, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.152) with 329,386 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.102) with 24,798 cases, Arkansas (0.089) with 1,006,883 cases, Guam (0.088) with 60,982 cases, and New York (0.078) with 6,965,489 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 332 of the last 444 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 232 of the last 260 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 17 of the last 17 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 136 of the last 137 days. New York has been in the top states for 110 of the last 155 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00677 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00994. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 252 of last 402 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 10, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.152) with 329,977 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.102) with 24,798 cases, Arkansas (0.089) with 1,007,200 cases, Guam (0.088) with 60,982 cases, and New York (0.078) with 6,966,898 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 333 of the last 445 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 233 of the last 261 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 18 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 137 of the last 138 days. New York has been in the top states for 111 of the last 156 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00566 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00677. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 46 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 252 of last 403 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 11, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.175) with 329,977 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.092) with 24,798 cases, Guam (0.088) with 60,982 cases, Arkansas (0.087) with 1,007,381 cases, and New York (0.078) with 6,968,298 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 334 of the last 446 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 234 of the last 262 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 138 of the last 139 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 19 days. New York has been in the top states for 112 of the last 157 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00182 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00566. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 252 of last 404 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 12, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.104) with 329,977 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.089) with 24,798 cases, Guam (0.088) with 60,982 cases, Arkansas (0.084) with 1,007,381 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,969,298 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 335 of the last 447 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 235 of the last 263 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 139 of the last 140 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 20 days. New York has been in the top states for 113 of the last 158 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00115 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00182. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 253 of last 405 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last three weeks ( February 18 to March 11, 2023).

The New Case Slope graph was down sightly for the past three weeks but continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were up slightly for the past three weeks. New Case Count average decreased for the past three weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased slightly for the past three weeks.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 13, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.208) with 61,061 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 24,813 cases, Montana (0.104) with 329,977 cases, Arkansas (0.085) with 1,007,474 cases, and New York (0.079) with 6,970,498 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 140 of the last 141 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 236 of the last 264 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 336 of the last 448 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 21 days. New York has been in the top states for 114 of the last 159 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00257 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00115. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 253 of last 406 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 14, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.208) with 61,061 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.111) with 24,818 cases, Montana (0.104) with 329,977 cases, Arkansas (0.085) with 1,007,474 cases, and New York (0.079) with 6,971,364 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 141 of the last 142 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 237 of the last 265 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 337 of the last 449 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 22 days. New York has been in the top states for 115 of the last 160 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00544 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00257. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 255 of last 407 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 15, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.208) with 61,061 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.112) with 24,821 cases, Montana (0.104) with 329,977 cases, Arkansas (0.085) with 1,007,474 cases, and New York (0.079) with 6,972,482 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 142 of the last 143 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 238 of the last 266 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 338 of the last 450 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 23 days. New York has been in the top states for 116 of the last 161 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00903 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00544. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 255 of last 408 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 105 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut