Coronavirus Thread

[matthew1]

Thanks volvolugnut. I find this data -- the way you present it -- very useful. I know it's not rock solid due to numbers reporting differences, testing saturation/adoption/delays/accuracy, but it's better than nothing.

[smacknab]

Any apolitical takes on the 2 trillion dollar emergency relief bill?

[matthew1]

Borrowing from the future to fix today. Not that it's not warranted.

[Cees Klumper]

The mortality rate is also dependent on whether the health system will be able to cope. In Italy, as we know, the death rate is now over 10% (!). The US is just at the beginning, many states are barely taking any measures and the # of known cases is still growing exponentially, let alone all the unknown cases. Testing still barely being done. I believe the death rate can climb to hundreds of thousands before the country will get serious. This is far more deadly than the flu and, what's more, far more contagious and 'below the radar'. Still, in many states, people acting as if nothing is wrong. The headlines in my Dutch papers yesterday and today, about the US response, are that the it has been totally inadequate and 'naive'. Plus the health systems here are relatively weak as is the general health of the population, with for example some states' obesity rates topping 35%. Think of it what you may, but the Dutch are in serious crisis mode and are doing a lot more than most US states, still to this day. I hope for the best but every day the # of new cases is rising fast.

[Cees Klumper]

This is my source of information, seems highly accurate:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[abscate]

I’m in upstate NY and we locked down a small metro area of 1M and have a few hundred cases

NYC was late and is paying the price.

My neighbor just made it up from FL , and came up because everyone was sitting around the pool talking about how bad it was in NY

[volvolugnut]

Thanks for encouragement in crunching numbers.
I just got raw numbers for today (resets at 2400 Greenwick Mean Time). Looks like my tracking states all had improved days. But that was just by eyeballing. Bedtime. All rest well.
volvolugnut

[93Regina]

Any apolitical takes on the 2 trillion dollar emergency relief bill?

No such thing as a 'free lunch' Inflation should be the end result, maybe hyperinflation, sooner or later; it depends upon how other countries spend money.

There are wildcards in predicting the future. China is considering an isolation policy, as it was for years/years, before Nixon's trip. China has reaped industrial worlds technology...so, they can go it alone, except for importing mineral/etc resources. If so, inflation will be here for a longer time frame.

It's only a short-term measure, with the assumption this virus issue will be over shortly. Many Red/Blue states are supporting consumers (aka life). The "Fed" can't control states when they enact stay at home. So, is another bail-out required...unknown.

The "Fed" suggested recently of go to work where infection is low, and stay at home where higher...but, who decides? "For decades, the federal government has made calculations on how policies intended to safeguard American health could impact the economy." I'm not aware of a statistical percent of what is an acceptable death rate. The "Fed" is shooting from the hip, and states can enact stay at home.

When these charts are looked at for projected hospital resource use, April 14, 2020 will be peak resource use, if "continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures" exist. Projections depend upon assumptions, and the "Fed" is opposed to scientific methodology.

[93Regina]

The charts below show projected hospital resource use based on COVID-19 deaths.

Each state can be viewed by opening dialog box near top center

[93Regina]

In Italy, as we know, the death rate is now over 10%

SEE: Why 'Death Rates' From Coronavirus Can Be Deceiving