Coronavirus Thread

[Phainein7]

a unpopular position here...I'm now ready to be flamed....

Whole point of flattening the curve is to prevent hospital overload...when not enough staffing and/or full occupancy happens, there is no medical service....think living in 1918.

Medical world is getting a handle on Covid-19, but needed supplies/equipment is absent in a number of locations.

Sweden, population at some 10 million, is open for business. Sweden's Outlier Response To COVID-19, And Its Results So Far

But, most all live in single family residences, 50% workforce staying at home, "public transport usage has fallen by roughly 50
percent. The streets in the nation's capital, Stockholm, are 70 percent less busy than usual." Government has communicated guidelines to follow, which includes staying at home when not feeling well.

Do note, in US, many working mothers will send their kids to school, and then go to work.

Walmart/Sams will require their employees to wear face masks starting Monday. States should follow suit, and fine $1,000 for those who disobey in public places.
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Consequences,

Scott A McMillan tweeted:

The fundamental problem is whether we are going to tank the entire
economy to save 2.5% [8.2 million] of the population which is

(1) generally expensive to maintain, and
(2) not productive.

[Note - Bozo above is talking about seniors mostly, living off of SS]
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I'm all for public wearing masks, and fining those who do not, like $1k per violation. Workplaces must take into Covid-19 guidelines for safety. Just look what happen to Tyson's meat packing houses.

I do think the elites children should go to public schools....
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Consider

"If I were king for a day...I would concentrate on three things:
testing, testing and testing," said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who is
itching to reopen the economy himself as the rate of infections slows
in his state. "There are tens of thousands, maybe millions of people
walking around with the virus without symptoms, they may never have
symptoms. Unfortunately they're contagious as hell."

"For a party that's ostensibly dedicated to the sanctity of life,
Republicans have repeatedly and flagrantly demonstrated how little
they care about their neighbors dying of an excruciating disease that
can feel like shards of glass have filled your lungs."
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[volvolugnut]

Well I'm going to have to take a bit of a unpopular position here

I think everyone will agree this may be the greatest challenge we have faced as a nation. We have a virus that kills loose in every state of the country. Because we have no other weapons to use against the virus, the choice was stay away from the sick. Since we can't test enough to know who is sick, we need to stay away from nearly everyone.

The alternative is let it sweep through the entire population and see who gets better. I don't think that is a good plan for anyone. MANY would die. The medical system would be overwhelmed. Survivors would have a shell world to start over with. I don't think those are exaggerations.

So here we are, 25 million unemployed so far. The medical system on the edge, needing basic supplies and waiting for testing. The vaccine is months if not years away. The economy is stalled out waiting for things to get better or get a lifeline from someone.

However, it appears there is enough food and basic supplies to go around (except maybe toilet paper). It is not the dead of winter. Local, state and federal governments are trying to help (mostly). We are making some progress at reducing the infection spread rates (see my daily posts for more details). We have only been sheltering for a few weeks for most areas. If we can all hang on and help each other where we can, we will get through this. Protests in the streets are disruptive and may get more people sick. Send your comments and complaints to government by letter, email or tweet. And continue to post on MVS.

volvolugnut

[abscate]

If you aren’t near NY I don’t think we can put our hands around 700 deaths per day across all ages

Here’s a graph that helps

[Sveedy]

Just to be clear - I am not advocating protests. Quite the opposite. Those sorts concern me greatly ( they're nuts ) , which is why I bring it up. But I also don't think it's a binary choice between everyone sitting on their hands or a zombie apocalypse. If we're going to compare doomsday scenarios, then violence in the streets and insurrection should also be considered. It just might be necessary to let the lid off a little so some of the pressure can escape before it blows its top. You can see how this is going to be played out by the cult, and we can't let that happen.
Four more years of the DJT45 virus has to be avoided as well.

[Phainein7]

...but I read the Governor is under fire for poor processing of Unemployment claims.

Most states and banking concerns are still using COBOL, which works just fine. Bottleneck is hardware was never upgraded over the years. Like N.J.'s system had a singe CPU for their system, and most likely, Kansas did too.

Apr 19, 2020 News Video: Decades-old unemployment systems can’t handle record demand

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Those We've Lost

The coronavirus pandemic has taken an incalculable death toll. This
series is designed to put names and faces to the numbers.
=================

Beer may lose its fizz as CO2 supplies go flat during pandemic

NEW YORK/LOS ANGELES - Dwindling supplies of carbon dioxide from
ethanol plants is sparking concern about shortages of beer, soda and
seltzer water---essentials for many quarantined Americans.
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Some crimes are spiking in major U.S. cities amid empty streets

Amid empty streets and shuttered shops, crime rates in some of the
biggest U.S. cities have dropped---with a few exceptions.

Car thefts and store robberies are spiking in some municipalities even
as crime overall---especially violent offenses---dropped in 10 of the
20 most populated cities, more than halving in San Francisco alone.
according to a Bloomberg News analysis of data from 10 major cities.

[Phainein7]

But I also don't think it's a binary choice between everyone sitting on their hands or a zombie apocalypse.

Face mask usage must be implemented, along with some type of social distancing and/or protection at work and public places.

Stay at home was required to evaluate community spread.

Public officials will be eyeballing what's happening in other countries, and will construct guidelines for US/States.

Locally, previous 2 cases did not spread (apparently), and their wives were not affected, nor several other related pesons. News bytes have suggested people without Covid-19 can live with people having Covid-19 in same house, but separation (like stay in bedroom/basement) must exist. Hence, preventive measures will have to exist before going back to work.

RE: zombie apocalypse

As the Arctic warms, ‘zombie’ viruses and microbes are rising from the
thawing ground. But infectious diseases migrating north could pose an
even bigger threat to human and animal health
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Zombie Insurance

[Sveedy]

So just a few last questions here and I'll retire my position as devils advocate:

Which had a larger historical impact; the year or two of the Spanish Flu pandemic or the 12 years of the great depression ?
Which caused the most human suffering, not just deaths ?
And what was the cause of the flues eventual demise ? Was it a vaccine ?

Thanks to everyone for putting up with me.

I'll take my answers off the air.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Iowa (0.272) with 2902 cases, North Dakota (0.170) with 585 cases, Nebraska (0.151) with 1474 cases, Minnesota (0.147) with 2356 cases, and Ohio (0.143) with 11,602 cases.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0404 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0475. This is not population or case number weighted. More steady small steps of improvement.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

...Spanish Flu pandemic or the 12 years of the great depression ?

Relative to what metric, and from whose perspective? There was a Agricultural Depression, 1920–1934, but "Minnesota farmers enjoyed a period of prosperity in the 1910s that continued through World War I." Agricultural folks tended to be better fed than their city counter-parts, during pandemic's two years.

Great depression brought about the New Deal, whose "benefits" continue to this day. But, on a political note, consider this:

"In which case, it makes all the sense in the world for Trump, the Republican Party and the conservative movement to push for the end of the lockdown, public health be damned. After years of single-minded devotion, the conservative movement is achingly close to dismantling the New Deal political order and turning the clock back to when capital could act without limits or restraints."
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Which caused the most human suffering, not just deaths ?

"Suffering" tends to be a relative concept, based upon an emotional perception. If your perception is "that's the way it is," one's perspective changes. Empathy is good to have, and represents a different perspective that would exclude suffering aspects.

And what was the cause of the flues eventual demise ? Was it a vaccine ?

2006 Jan - 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics....Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain unanswered. ...Factors believed to be responsible include partial herd immunity limiting virus spread.... circulating human influenza viruses would presumably disappear once herd immunity had reached a critical threshold at which further virus spread was sufficiently limited.

Sidebar - In regards to polio vaccine

The Sabin Vaccine - An important feature of Sabin’s oral polio vaccine was that immediately after vaccination, people shed weakened virus in their fecal waste. This boosted immunity for others in the community and gradually reduced the number of people susceptible to poliomyelitis.

[Note - Polio is spread when the stool of an infected person is introduced into the mouth of another person through contaminated water or food (fecal-oral transmission)....Covid-19 via respiratory.]

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

A new presentation of states growth rate trends from April 1 to April 18 is shown below. What I have tried to do is show if a state has a falling growth rate trend in the first, middle, and last part of this period. My assumption is if growth rates are falling, the virus spread is slowing. If there is a consistent trend downward, efforts to contain the spread are working well. If there is a reversal and trends increase later in the period, the control efforts need new encouragement.

The data is from 5 day moving averages of the calculated growth rate since April 1. The 5 day moving average smooths the data from day to day 'noise'. The two columns are the later period average divided by earlier period average. If the numbers were equal, the column numbers would be 1.00. Numbers higher than 1.00, indicate a reversal and increasing growth rate (bad news). Much greater than 1.00, is very bad news. Numbers less than 1.00 are good news. Numbers much less than 1.00 indicate a very good trend. Ideally, both column numbers are well below 1.00 and the right number is lower than the left.

I hope this is not too difficult to understand. It would be better in graphical presentation, but I have limitations of time and resources. Reply with comments and questions.

Check out your state and others of interest. Overall, I was surprised that many states have a positive trend for the last 18 days. The states with early virus cases are mostly doing well by this measure. Some of the later, more rural states, still have need for improvement.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut