Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (1.20) with 90 cases, Montana (0.162) with 1016 cases, Louisiana (0.161) with 60,178 cases, Idaho (0.141) with 6370 cases, and West Virginia (0.137) with 2979 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Montana and US Virgin Islands have few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Iowa, and US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0351 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0321. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
[/quote]

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.199) with 1083 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.182) with 92 cases, Guam (0.157) with 280 cases, Arkansas (0.153) with 22,075 cases, and Minnesota (0.150) with 37,210 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. US Virgin Islands and Guam have few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Iowa, and Vermont were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Delaware, Guam, and Rhode Island were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0386 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0351. This is not population or case number weighted. The US average has been up 11 of the last 12 days. The average is the highest since May 1 when the US average was 0.0410.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.545) with 98 cases, Idaho (0.190) with 6994 cases, North Dakota (0.190) with 3722 cases, Oklahoma (0.170) with 15.065 cases, and Kansas (0.159) with 16,005 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. US Virgin Islands has few cases, but has been in the top 5 list 5 of the last 8 days. Idaho has been in the top 5 list 6 of the last 8 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Hawaii, Kansas, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0362 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0386. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

My Covid-19/Victory garden is producing a few vegetables - squash and okra so far. Not near enough to live on but an interesting diversion project. But my wife noticed the water bill has increased.
volvolugnut

[abscate]

Ive got squash, tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers all in fruit stages.

This is like watching a slow mo nightmare.

Houston just hit 90% cap on ICU and they are still on the steep upslope. I don’t know what these states are thinking after watching NY spike. You know what you have to do, just do it!

[RickHaleParker]

Ive got squash, tomatoes, lettuce, cucumbers all in fruit stages.

I've done enough transplanting to have a V8.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.765) with 111 cases, Oklahoma (0.184) with 15,645 cases, North Dakota (0.152) with 3779 cases, Wisconsin (0.135) with 31,055 cases, and West Virginia (0.124) with 3205 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. US Virgin Islands has few cases, but has been in the top 5 list 6 of the last 9 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Ohio was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise. Ohio has made this list the last two days and has doubled the growth rate of several days ago.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0297 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0362. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.188) with 3335 cases cases, Minnesota (0.136) with 38,136 cases, Louisiana (0.114) with 65,226 cases, Nevada (0.108) with 22,418 cases, and Hawaii (0.107) with 1023 cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Navajo Nation was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). New Hampshire was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0289 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0297. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

I have created eight new graphs with about 6 or 7 states in each showing growth rate from April 5 to July 5. There are some interesting changes from two weeks ago. This data used 5 day moving averages to smooth some of the noise. These graphs are a bit busy with all the lines together. Note that the vertical scale changes for each graph. I will give some commentary for each. If you want to see detail of an individual state, I will try to accommodate.

All the states and territories started in early April at high growth rate. A possible explanation is most areas were just starting response with social distancing and other measures. Over the weeks, most states have a downward trend, sort of a glide path as we reduced the spreading rate. Some states had initial reductions and then stayed about the same rate to the present. Other states, had initial drops and are now rising again. Others show no clear trend, but rise and fall randomly. Note that most states started reopening in late April and early May. In the last couple weeks, some of the early opening states have started to restrict some activities.

Here are some background comments on growth rates for your consideration. The growth rate is the rate of increase in active cases. The current day new case number is divided by the previous day number of active cases. A growth rate of 1.05, if maintained, will double the number of active cases in two weeks. A growth rate of 1.10 will double active cases in 7 days. Active cases will double in 5 days for a growth rate of 1.15. The best states have consistent growth rates below 0.005 for doubling active cases in about 140 days. Two very good states are New York and New Jersey.

Another consideration is the number of active cases in the state. There is dramatic differences between the states. New York has the most cases with near 270,000 active cases. A few small population, mostly rural states have less than 1000 active cases. The number of active cases will not be discussed here.

The first graph is Alabama to Colorado. Most states are on a nice glide path to low rates. Alabama was fairly low until late in May and then rose to near early April level. In the past week Alabama has increased again. Alaska spiked high in early June, declined for a few weeks but has now increased to higher levels. Arkansas has had several spikes to high rates recently and lately fallen off only to rise again. Arizona is in the news lately, but the growth rate is fairly moderate compared to some other states. California has relatively low growth rate, but has risen in the past weeks.

The second graph is Connecticut to Georgia. This group looks relatively good with a general downward slope. Florida is another state in the news lately. It has a rising growth rate, but looks good compared to some other states. Delaware and Georgia are also rising.

The third graph is Hawaii to Kentucky. Hawaii looked very good until late May. They do not have a lot of cases, but numbers are growing. The past week has declining growth rate numbers, but lots of variability. It has active cases doubling in about two weeks. Idaho is another state that looked good until late May and then had rising growth rate. Idaho rates have dropped but are still high. Kansas, Iowa and Indiana have shown an increase in the past couple weeks. These three are now doubling cases in about one to two weeks. Illinois has increasing growth rate the last couple weeks, but will double in more than two weeks.

The fourth graph is Louisiana to Mississippi. Massachusetts, Michigan, and Maryland all looked good with a downward trend until about three weeks ago. Michigan and Massachusetts have risen moderately in the last couple weeks. Louisiana, Mississippi, and Maine bumped along at the same moderate level with little improvement until about three weeks ago. Louisiana and Mississippi have risen sharply the last couple days. Minnesota have had higher growth rate than most states for many weeks, but have shown improvement during June. Minnesota, Louisiana, and Mississippi will likely double active cases every week.

The fifth graph is Missouri to New Mexico. Montana is the state with the highest growth rate in this group. It also has the lowest number of cases at 1249. Nevada continues to rise since the start of June. Both Montana and Nevada have growth rates that predict doubling cases in about one week. The other states here are on a glide path downward.

The sixth graph is New York to Pennsylvania. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania all had good downward slopes until a couple weeks ago, then some increase in the last week. Ohio and Pennsylvania now are trending upward. Oregon looked good until late May and has risen the last several weeks. North Carolina and North Dakota bounced along with wide swings and moderate growth rate until mid June. In the last weeks, North Dakota has increased in rate. Oklahoma has never had low growth rates and has climbed to higher levels the first weeks of June and then fell, only to increase again the last few days. Current Oklahoma and North Dakota growth rates are near early April rates. Oklahoma is one of the few states that never had stay home recommendations other than for people over sixty.

The seventh graph is Puerto Rico to Texas. Rhode Island and Puerto Rico continue to look fairly good in this graph. The other states bounce along at a moderate growth rate without improvement. South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas have seen an increasing growth rate since late May. Tennessee and Texas can be expected to double active cases about every week.

The eighth graph is Utah to Wyoming. Washington, Vermont and Virginia look relatively good lately. Utah has dropped recently to a moderate growth rate. Wyoming rose in the first two weeks of June to a level equal to early May and has stayed near that level. West Virginia and Wisconsin have steep growth rate increase the last few weeks, but West Virginia still has few active cases. The other states in this graph bump along at moderate growth rates without improving.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.


I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.219) with 301 cases, West Virginia (0.133) with 3442 cases, Oklahoma (0.132) with 16,362 cases, Kansas (0.130) with 16,973 cases, and Puerto Rico (0.104) with 8585 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Guam has few cases. Minnesota had a negative new case number yesterday and the growth rate calculation failed.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, and US military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas and Wisconsin were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0324 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0289. This is not population or case number weighted.


volvolugnut