Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 20, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.140) with 256,700 cases, North Dakota (0.139) with 70,016 cases, Vermont (0.136) with 3459 cases, New Hampshire (0.130) with 16,797 cases, and Arkansas (0.121) with 141,916 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 82 of last 107 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 95 of last 142 days. Vermont has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 10 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 52 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 94 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Military was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Delaware, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0442 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0432. This is not population or case number weighted.

Yesterday's total of new cases was 204,179. This is the highest ever reported and the previous high was 192,186 yesterday.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.154) with 71,540 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.136) with 1491 cases, Minnesota (0.122) with 262,952 cases, Oklahoma (0.119) with 170,924 cases, and New Hampshire (0.118) with 17,281 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 96 of last 143 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 37 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 83 of last 108 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 53 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Hawaii was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0368 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0442. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.197) with 1504 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 270,157 cases, Louisiana (0.142) with 220,192 cases, Tennessee (0.115) with 340,476 cases, and North Dakota (0.114) with 72,683 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 38 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 84 of last 109 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 43 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 58 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 97 of last 144 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana and Puerto Rico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0286 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0368. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.135) with 276,500 cases, Kansas (0.131) with 143,733 cases, Wyoming (0.113) with 29,431 cases, Oklahoma (0.109) with 177,874 cases, and New Hampshire (0.106) with 18,042 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 85 of last 110 days. Kansas has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 27 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 70 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 55 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Kansas, Washington, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, Kansas, and Federal Prisons did not report the previous day. Wyoming was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0354 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0286. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.246) with 1521 cases, Minnesota (0.140) with 282,916 cases, Arkansas (0.127) with 148,312 cases, Louisiana (0.112) with 224,403 cases, and Maine (0.107) with 10,779 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 40 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 86 of last 111 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 98 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 45 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Rhode Island, Texas, and US Virgin Islands were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0353 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0354. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.227) with 1536 cases, Minnesota (0.140) with 289,303 cases, North Dakota (0.121) with 75,478 cases, Arkansas (0.115) with 150,277 cases, and Oklahoma (0.112) with 184,342 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 41 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 87 of last 112 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 98 of last 147 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 44 of last 99 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 5 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas and Rhode Island were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Missouri was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0359 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0353. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.138) with 152,625 cases, Tennessee (0.126) with 352,376 cases, North Dakota (0.112) with 76,442 cases, Maine (0.106) with 11,265 cases, and Mississippi (0.085) with 147,382 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 100 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 61 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 99 of last 148 days.

Oregon did not report active cases. About 20 other states did not report yesterday.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Mississippi, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0214 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0359. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.185) with 230,602 cases, South Dakota (0.140) with 78,280 cases, Minnesota (0.126) with 295,001cases, New Hampshire (0.125) with 19,313 cases, and Tennessee (0.124) with 356,716 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 48 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 88 of last 114 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 44 of last 59 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 62 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana, Nebraska, Puerto Rico, and South Dakota were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, and Wyoming did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0320 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0214. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Tennessee (0.200) with 363,466 cases, New Hampshire (0.151) with 20,002 cases, Minnesota (0.097) with 304,023 cases, Oklahoma (0.095) with 193,824 cases, and North Dakota (0.085) with 77,935 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 63 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 60 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 89 of last 115 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 8 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 100 of last 150 days.

Oregon and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, New Hampshire, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0274 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0320. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut