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ICE vs. EV Poll

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ICE vs. EV: What does the near future look like?

EV is a fad that will go away soon
0
No votes
EV will trickle into the market slowly, even more slowly than it has
1
5%
EV will come into the market moderately, the same it has
11
58%
EV will come into the market quickly, faster than it has
6
32%
EV will dominate auto sales within one-two years
1
5%
 
Total votes: 19

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ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by matthew1 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:55 pm

ICE = internal combustion engine
EV = electric


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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by volvolugnut » Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:19 pm

Electric vehicles will not dominate the US market because the US has many large, open areas to travel. Electric vehicles will need to overcome the slow 'refuel' rate compared to conventional refueling. Until both types are near equal, in areas where vehicle trips may be hundreds of miles in a day or recharging stations are not available for planned overnight stops, electric vehicles will not replaced other fuels.

In my personal situation, I have many relatives 400 miles away in rural areas. An all electric vehicle would extend travel time to 2 days with an overnight stay. When I arrived, I still would not have high charging rate available and may leave again low on charge.

In densely populated areas, all electric vehicles may be suitable for shorter travels while longer trips might be made using mass transportation systems. If your normal trips are between cities on the east coast, train and plane travel may work well for longer trips.

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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by mrbrian200 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:57 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:19 pm
Electric vehicles will not dominate the US market because the US has many large, open areas to travel.
volvolugnut
Battery technology simply isn't yet 'there' to make pure EVs suitable for many here in the states. PHEV hybrids are probably the ticket for the time being. But even they aren't configured in a way to make real sense in my opinion.

The configuration of hybrid technology that might actually catch on here, that I would enthusiastically buy, nobody makes at the moment as far as I know.
I'm talking small displacement ICE, probably 2 or 3 cylinders around 80hp paired to a mid-range performance electric drive with enough battery capacity to go ~200 miles between charges in all electric mode with total power output between 150-200hp for a mid size sedan, 250hp for full size and SUVs (consider electric drives are torquey, so it'll likely feel like more).

So...take Volvo's electrified portion of their T8 Twin Engine, Add an 80HP ICE (probably 120 for a large SUV). Better yet, don't bother with a complex ATX if you can get away with it: at low speeds if the battery gets low, the ICE kicks in but is strictly a genset for the electric drive running at a fixed peaked design efficiency RPM. If deviating from that fixed, peak efficient RPM to power the wheels directly on long highway runs is more efficient than powering through the genset/electric drive, then add a 1 or 2 speed trans or CVT which primary function is to maintain highway speeds (passing power comes from electric assist).

Using such a design, most people, most of the time, with access to a charge station only at home, would run on electric 80-99% of the time. People would generally accept buying gas for the occasional longer trip with more than 200 miles between stops/charges.

Current PHEVs which max out with 15-40 mile electric ranges.. for anything beyond short work commutes and coffee runs, aside from moderate econ gains from regenerative braking... what is the point, exactly?? And for stomping power they still rely on the ICE which I think is the wrong approach.



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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by Rattnalle » Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:37 am

Most people, even in the states, still live in urban areas and a significant portion of cars are used almost exclusively for short trips. Especially in multiple car households one car might never do trips of more than an hour or two if that.

Personally I require a daily range of up to and above 1000 miles so EVs aren't really there yet for me but a significant portion of cars are quite easily replaceable.

As a reference a trip down Sweden end to end is about the same as the length of the US west coast, though there are only 10 million of us living along that distance.



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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by vtl » Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:39 am

They need to come up with a better energy containment first. Gasoline is a very effective in storing the energy, and recharge is very quick, only couple of minutes. Other than that, electric motor was always much better than ICE.


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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by mrbrian200 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:09 pm

I keep coming across tech articles, a few times a year, talking about new battery chemistry being developed that promises longer range/shorter charge times/cycle durability/resistance to fires etc.

There was one I recall in the last month that said it 'held the promise' of 1000 mile ranges with 15 minute charge times and enough charge cycle durability (in the 10s of thousands if I recall) to effectively last the life of a vehicle.

But sometimes I question whether some of this stuff is real, clickbait, or scam artists looking to attract 'unwise' investor-suckers (see: Theranos)



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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by 93Regina » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:01 pm

Nissan invests ¥33 billion in production to prepare for electric age

YOKOHAMA – Nissan is investing ¥33 billion ($303 million) in its flagship auto plant in Tochigi Prefecture in a first rollout of a production system geared toward electric vehicles.

==================

Why a measured transition to electric vehicles would benefit the US
...
...
In a recent research paper, I examined some of the challenges in
transitioning from internal combustion engine vehicles to EVs. I think
these Democratic candidates might want to give themselves some wiggle
room to pursue a more measured approach – for environmental, economic
and political reasons.



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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by 93Regina » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:16 pm

mrbrian200 wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:09 pm
There was one I recall in the last month that said it 'held the promise' of 1000 mile ranges with 15 minute charge times and enough charge cycle durability (in the 10s of thousands if I recall) to effectively last the life of a vehicle
November 25, 2019 - Global Graphene Group also plans to improve batteries by encasing silicon in the anode with graphene, an exotic form of carbon sheets only one atom thick. The result, according to CEO Bor Jang, a longtime graphene researcher, will be batteries costing 30% less and powering EVs with a 700-mile range. Jang expects those batteries can be fully charged in five to 15 minutes.



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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by abscate » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:49 am

Its the energy density problem. Gasoline is 100x more energy dense than electricity in both volume and mass, so that barrier will be hard to overcome.

Even 15 minute charge times will be too long, and those won't be feasible for decades.

Its going to stay in the realm of short urban commutes only - which limits market penetration significantly.


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Re: ICE vs. EV Poll

Post by Rattnalle » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:11 am

abscate wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:49 am
Its the energy density problem. Gasoline is 100x more energy dense than electricity in both volume and mass, so that barrier will be hard to overcome.

Even 15 minute charge times will be too long, and those won't be feasible for decades.

Its going to stay in the realm of short urban commutes only - which limits market penetration significantly.
Current generation EVs with ranges of 250-300 miles or so work for pretty decent commutes, longer than a significant portion of people who commute by car worldwide have. And for commuting overnight charging is a perfectly fine option. They're good enough today to replace pretty much every urban family's second car, though perhaps not both cars in 1+ car households.

For longer trips however they're still not there though the newer cars with 150-200 kW charge rates seem to work well for a lot of people who, unlike me, want to stop and eat and stuff when they go places :roll:

And almost everywhere else in the world where gasoline costs significantly more than in the US there's a pretty strong cost incentive.

I'll be very surprised if we don't see a pretty decent market penetration within just a few years now that VW and others actually start deliveries.

I love the ones I've driven so far. They're just not good enough for long distance driving and I'm much too cheap to own a new car.



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