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Coronavirus Thread

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Sveedy
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by Sveedy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm

First Coronavirus takes away my favorite pastime of picking my nose, and now you take away my sarcasm.
I don't know how much more of this I can take....

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93Regina
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:52 pm

matthew1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:58 am
Hunter S. Thompson...could really use him right now.... best take on this, bar none...
“Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!”
― Hunter S. Thompson, The Proud Highway: Saga of a Desperate Southern Gentleman, 1955-1967

So, his belief would oppose throwing some 7.8 million US humans overboard, for "Trump's" economy.
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93Regina
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:56 pm

FWIW - Just showing virus is mutating.

Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus

and

Phylogeny of SARS-like betacoronaviruses including novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2
===============

Trivial

But a germ that’s merely annoying can perpetuate itself indefinitely.
One 2014 study found that the virus causing oral herpes has been with
the human lineage for 6 million years. “That’s a very successful
virus,” Kirkegaard said.

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93Regina
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:03 pm

Sveedy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:20 pm
I don't know how much more of this I can take....
Have you checked your homeowner policy? Does it cover Zombie Apocalypse?

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by smacknab » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:22 pm

In response to Matt's question of how we are doing- I'm currently still working despite despite my industry essentially collapsing about a month ago, but alot of people I know are now out of work and either getting 2-3 weeks of paid leave in the meantime, waiting for govt assistance, or both. Brother, aunt, a bunch of friends, my partner, etc. It's been pretty intense but we live with our in-laws and I saved up an acceptable emergency fund, and again I somehow still have a paycheck right now so I think I'm doing better than most. Atleast for my age.

I've been getting ready for time consuming projects to keep my mind off the world like getting into rust and body work, and resealing the oil pan and oil pump. I've only been working on cars for about 6 months and it's been a welcome distraction in my normal life, and is especially so right now. Feels great to work with your hands on tangible problems when the world's problems are so large.

I'm also lucky that my partner is something of a chef and has been testing a ton of homemade recipes out on me.

I hope everyone here has been managing the stress, practicing good social distancing, eating well. As nice of a distraction as car stuff been for me, it is good to see the conversation here about this topic.
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Cees Klumper
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by Cees Klumper » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:03 pm

My wife and I live on a boat in Los Angeles. Small space. I can work from home thanks to our internet connection. The organization I work for provides medical and related services to populations in dire situations, mostly man-made (in places like Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and so on). I lead the teams that audit the operations, and that investigate fraud and similar cases of bad behaviour.
For a change, this virus has affected more the developed rather than the developing countries, but we are bracing ourselves as it's just a matter of time. I do daily calls with my team members in Croatia, Jordan, Lebanon, London and Washington. So far, touch wood, no reports of any of our 7,000 staff members worldwide being infected.
There is sufficient food on the shelves here in LA, but there is a noticeable lack of things like frozen foods, bleach wipes, that sort of thing. People seem to by and large abide by the guidelines now, which is good to see.
I worry most about my 83 year old mother, who lives in The Netherlands. At least they finally went into lockdown yesterday. Italian authorities have been warning all Europeans (and the rest of the world) to take this ultra-seriously. If you don't, it creates hell.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:33 am

I have been tracking the growth rate of CORVID-19 in several countries for weeks. An interesting graph is attached below. I created this myself and any misrepresentation are mine. Date was gathered from online sources that I have posted here earlier.

download/file.php?mode=view&id=52559

These lines are daily calculations of virus infection growth rate as Current Day New Cases/ Previous Day Active Cases. Active Cases are identified cases that have not recovered or died.

I have compared Italy and USA because these appear to contrast differences in effective control of spreading infections. My conclusion is the USA has not effectively slowed the spread yet.

volvolugnut
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COVID19 Growth 032420.JPG
COVID19 Growth 032420.JPG (27.17 KiB) Viewed 64 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:47 am

For additional information:
A growth rate of .1 will double the infections in about 7 days. A growth rate of .3 will double infections in about 2.5 days. A lower growth rate allows more time for medical systems to respond to additional needs.

If the growth rate is trending down and continues down, it may in the future cross zero and go negative. At that point, active cases will drop each day. This would relieve pressure on the medical system.

Of the 9 countries I have been tracking (China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Iran, UK, and USA), the USA has had the highest growth rate the last 10 days.

I plan to look at US state growth rates, but I have only a few days of data.

volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:53 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:33 am
My conclusion is the USA has not effectively slowed the spread yet.
I think that's a no-brainer, without charts...Affected people traveling via cruise ships, air travel, etc., have exposed this virus to many since defensive measures were delayed, and delayed.

Where I live in a rural area, there are two cases now, as of today....not enough public info, but since one of the affected is in ICU, with a low chance of survival, I suspect this other person had contact with this person. Problem in any rural community, "what goes around" can affect many...this is what happened in Italy in rural areas. It can take from one to 14 days before symptoms appear (if strong symptoms appear), but for several days before, a person can be spreading it around, and feeling good.
============

Most people think we’re weeks away from the peak, if not months. That’s the advice we’re getting from the smart folks at Johns Hopkins, the National Institutes of Health, the University of Maryland, places like that,” Hogan said.
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by 93Regina » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:15 pm

My, my, and the knuckle heads down there were "feasting" on dollars from the spring breakers...give me a break Florida

"Governor DeSantis sent President Trump a letter on Monday asking that he declare a Major Disaster as Florida responds to COVID-19."

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