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Coronavirus Thread

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volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:46 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:23 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Idaho (0.157) with 3540 cases, Oklahoma (0.154) with 8645 cases, Texas (0.146) with 95,793 cases, Nevada (0.138) with 11,658 cases, and Mississippi (0.099) with 20,152 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Oklahoma has been in the top five for 14 of last 18 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Guam, Idaho, Texas, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0217 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0176. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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State Growth 061620 A.JPG
State Growth 061620 A.JPG (245.11 KiB) Viewed 61 times
State Growth 061620 B.JPG
State Growth 061620 B.JPG (212.73 KiB) Viewed 61 times
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volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:52 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 6:03 pm
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.
I have created eight new graphs with about 6 or 7 states in each showing growth rate from April 5 to June 16. There are some interesting changes from two weeks ago. This data used 5 day moving averages to smooth some of the noise. These graphs are a bit busy with all the lines together. Note that the vertical scale changes for each graph. I will give some commentary for each. If you want to see detail of an individual state, I will try to accommodate.

All the states and territories started in early April at high growth rate. A possible explanation is most areas were just starting response with social distancing and other measures. Over the weeks, most states have a downward trend, sort of a glide path as we reduced the spreading rate. Some states had initial reductions and then stayed about the same rate to the present. Other states, had initial drops and are now rising again. Others show no clear trend, but rise and fall randomly. Note that most states started reopening in late April and early May.

The first graph is Alabama to Colorado. Most states are on a nice glide path to low rates. Alabama was fairly low until late in May and has risen to near early April level. Alaska spiked high in early June , but has now fallen to lower levels. Arkansas has had several spikes to high rates recently. Arizona is in the news lately, but the growth rate is fairly moderate compared to some other states.

The second graph is Connecticut to Guam. This group looks good with a general downward slope. Except for Guam, which has very few cases, so they will have a lot more noise in the line as a few cases cause large changes in the growth rate. Florida is another state in the news lately. It has a rising growth rate, but looks good compared to some other states.

The third graph is Hawaii to Kentucky. Hawaii looked very good until late May. Now the Hawaii growth rate is high and rising. They do not have a lot of cases, but numbers are growing. Idaho is another state that looked good until late May and now has rising growth rate. Indiana is another state that has risen since early June.

The fourth graph is Louisiana to Mississippi. Massachusetts, Michigan, and Maryland all look good with a downward trend. Louisiana, Mississippi, and Maine bump along at the same moderate level with little improvement. Minnesota has higher growth rate than most states, but should get credit for improvement from their high growth rates during all of May. Minnesota made the Top Five list most of May.

The fifth graph is Missouri to New Mexico. Montana is the state with the highest growth rate in this group. It also has the lowest number of cases at 614. A change in new cases by one or two make large changes in the rate. Nevada has risen moderately in the last two weeks. The other states here are on a glide path downward.

The sixth graph is New York to Pennsylvania. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania all have good downward slopes. Oregon looked good until late May and has risen this month. North Carolina and North Dakota bounce along with wide swings and moderate growth rate. Oklahoma has never had low growth rates and has climbed to higher levels the last two weeks. Current Oklahoma growth rates are near early April rates. Oklahoma is one of the few states that never had stay home recommendations other than for people over sixty.

The seventh graph is Puerto Rico to Texas. Rhode Island and Puerto Rico look fairly good in this graph. The other states bounce along at a moderate growth rate without improvement. South Carolina and Texas have seen an increasing growth rate since late May.

The eighth graph is Utah to Wyoming. Washington and Virginia look relatively good in this graph. Vermont has dropped sharply in the last week after rising since early May. Wyoming has risen in the last two weeks to a level equal to early May. The other states in this graph bump along at moderate growth rates without improving.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Graph 061620 A.JPG
State Graph 061620 A.JPG (90.28 KiB) Viewed 56 times
State Graph 061620 B.JPG
State Graph 061620 B.JPG (99.26 KiB) Viewed 56 times
State Graph 061620 C.JPG
State Graph 061620 C.JPG (89.56 KiB) Viewed 56 times
State Graph 061620 D.JPG
State Graph 061620 D.JPG (93.62 KiB) Viewed 56 times
State Graph 061620 E.JPG
State Graph 061620 E.JPG (91.48 KiB) Viewed 56 times
State Graph 061620 F.JPG
State Graph 061620 F.JPG (88.19 KiB) Viewed 56 times
State Graph 061620 G.JPG
State Graph 061620 G.JPG (85.04 KiB) Viewed 56 times
State Graph 061620 H.JPG
State Graph 061620 H.JPG (90.2 KiB) Viewed 56 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:12 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:46 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 17, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.267) with 630 cases, Idaho (0.173) with 3632 cases, Oklahoma (0.171) with 8904 cases, Guam (0.167) with 188 cases, and Minnesota (0.164) with 31,296 cases. Montana and Guam have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Oklahoma has been in the top five for 15 of last 19 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. New Hampshire and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, South Dakota, Veterans Affairs, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0220 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0217. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 061720 A.JPG
State Growth 061720 A.JPG (212.69 KiB) Viewed 51 times
State Grwoth 061720 B.JPG
State Grwoth 061720 B.JPG (194.03 KiB) Viewed 51 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:20 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Thu Jun 18, 2020 12:12 pm
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 18, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.385) with 193 cases, Montana (0.347) with 655 cases, Oklahoma (0.274) with 9354 cases, Idaho (0.209) with 3743 cases, and Hawaii (0.205) with 762 cases. Montana,Hawaii and Guam have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Oklahoma has been in the top five for 16 of last 20 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Hawaii, Vermont, Navajo Nation, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0234 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0220. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 061820 A.JPG
State Growth 061820 A.JPG (245.91 KiB) Viewed 47 times
State Growth 061820 B.JPG
State Growth 061820 B.JPG (216.21 KiB) Viewed 47 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:50 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:20 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.389) with 200 cases, Hawaii (0.257) with 789 cases, Idaho (0.226) with 3871 cases, Oklahoma (0.184) with 9760 cases, and Arkansas (0.162) with 14,631 cases. Hawaii and Guam have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Oklahoma has been in the top five for 17 of last 21 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Missouri and Vermont were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Delaware, Guam, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, New York, Tennessee, Veterans Affairs, US Military, Navajo Nation, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0277 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0234. This is the highest US average since May 8 when it was 0.0291. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 061920 A.JPG
State Growth 061920 A.JPG (242.42 KiB) Viewed 37 times
State Growth 061920 B.JPG
State Growth 061920 B.JPG (213.65 KiB) Viewed 37 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:43 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:50 pm
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.
US average daily growth rates for March 3 to June 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Daily averages have increased in the last several days. Yesterdays average (0.0277) jumped to the level not seen since May 8 when it was 0.0291.

US average daily growth rates are not weighted by number of cases per state.

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US Growth 061920.JPG
US Growth 061920.JPG (85.1 KiB) Viewed 35 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:56 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:50 pm
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 20, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (1.00) with 222 cases, Montana (0.320) with 698 cases, Idaho (0.225) with 4006 cases, Minnesota (0.149) with 32,467 cases, and Louisiana (0.146) with 49,746 cases. Montana and Guam have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Louisiana, and Puerto Rico were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, Georgia, and Illinois were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0276 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0277. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062020 A.JPG
State Growth 062020 A.JPG (243.24 KiB) Viewed 25 times
State Growth 062020 B.JPG
State Growth 062020 B.JPG (214.28 KiB) Viewed 25 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:01 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:56 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (1.00) with 76 cases, Oklahoma (0.212) with 10,515 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 32,920 cases, Montana (0.146) with 717 cases, and North Dakota (0.126) with 3288 cases. US Virgin Islands and Montana have few cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Oklahoma has been in top 5 for 18 of last 23 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands and Utah were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0211 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0276. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062120 A.JPG
State Growth 062120 A.JPG (245.37 KiB) Viewed 17 times
State Growth 062120 B.JPG
State Growth 062120 B.JPG (215.68 KiB) Viewed 17 times
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:26 am

volvolugnut wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:01 pm
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Idaho (0.405) with 4254 cases, Mississippi (0.266) with 22,287 cases, Montana (0.154) with 740 cases, Wyoming (0.123) with 1230 cases, and Texas (0.117) with 119,645 cases. Montana has few cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Idaho has been in top 5 for 7 of last 9 days. Montana has been in top 5 for 11 of last 16 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Mississippi, Rhode Island, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho, Kansas, and Pennsylvania were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0251 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0211. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062220 A.JPG
State Growth 062220 A.JPG (240.52 KiB) Viewed 12 times
State Growth 062220 B.JPG
State Growth 062220 B.JPG (211.28 KiB) Viewed 12 times
2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple parts cars.

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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:34 pm

volvolugnut wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:26 am
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.201) with 51,713 cases, Idaho (0.195) with 4402 cases, Mississippi (0.150) with 22,898 cases, Nevada (0.132) with 13,997 cases, and Arkansas (0.118) with 16,678 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Idaho has been in top 5 for 8 of last 10 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, and Kentucky were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0285 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0251. This is not population or case number weighted. The number of new US cases was 36,015 yesterday. This is the highest daily number since May 1 and the 4th highest number of new cases ever reported.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062320 A.JPG
State Growth 062320 A.JPG (248.79 KiB) Viewed 11 times
State Growth 062320 B.JPG
State Growth 062320 B.JPG (211.19 KiB) Viewed 11 times
2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple parts cars.

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