volvolugnut wrote: ↑
Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:52 pm
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.
I have created eight new graphs with about 6 or 7 states in each showing growth rate from April 5 to June 24. There are some interesting changes from two weeks ago. This data used 5 day moving averages to smooth some of the noise. These graphs are a bit busy with all the lines together. Note that the vertical scale changes for each graph. I will give some commentary for each. If you want to see detail of an individual state, I will try to accommodate.
All the states and territories started in early April at high growth rate. A possible explanation is most areas were just starting response with social distancing and other measures. Over the weeks, most states have a downward trend, sort of a glide path as we reduced the spreading rate. Some states had initial reductions and then stayed about the same rate to the present. Other states, had initial drops and are now rising again. Others show no clear trend, but rise and fall randomly. Note that most states started reopening in late April and early May.
The first graph is Alabama to Colorado. Most states are on a nice glide path to low rates. Alabama was fairly low until late in May and then rose to near early April level. In the past week Alabama has fallen again. Alaska spiked high in early June , but has now fallen to lower levels. Arkansas has had several spikes to high rates recently and lately fallen off. Arizona is in the news lately, but the growth rate is fairly moderate compared to some other states. California has relatively low growth rate, but has risen in the past week.
The second graph is Connecticut to Georgia. This group looks good with a general downward slope. Florida is another state in the news lately. It has a rising growth rate, but looks good compared to some other states. It has continued an upward trend in the past week.
The third graph is Hawaii to Kentucky. Hawaii looked very good until late May. Now the Hawaii growth rate is high and rising. They do not have a lot of cases, but numbers are growing. The past week has declining growth rate numbers, but lots of variability. Idaho is another state that looked good until late May and now has rising growth rate. Indiana is another state that rose in early June, but has fallen in the last week. Kansas has shown an increase in the past couple weeks.
The fourth graph is Louisiana to Mississippi. Massachusetts, Michigan, and Maryland all look good with a downward trend, except Michigan has risen in the last week. Louisiana, Mississippi, and Maine bump along at the same moderate level with little improvement. However, Louisiana and Mississippi have risen sharply the last couple days. Minnesota has higher growth rate than most states, but should get credit for improvement from their high growth rates during all of May. Minnesota made the Top Five list most of May.
The fifth graph is Missouri to New Mexico. Montana is the state with the highest growth rate in this group. It also has the lowest number of cases at 614. A change in new cases by one or two make large changes in the rate. Nevada continues to rise since the start of June. The other states here are on a glide path downward.
The sixth graph is New York to Pennsylvania. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania all have good downward slopes with some increase in the last week. Oregon looked good until late May and has risen this month but declined the last week. North Carolina and North Dakota bounce along with wide swings and moderate growth rate. Oklahoma has never had low growth rates and has climbed to higher levels the first weeks of June and then fallen the last few days. Current Oklahoma growth rates are near early April rates. Oklahoma is one of the few states that never had stay home recommendations other than for people over sixty.
The seventh graph is Puerto Rico to Texas. Rhode Island and Puerto Rico look fairly good in this graph. The other states bounce along at a moderate growth rate without improvement. South Carolina and Texas have seen an increasing growth rate since late May.
The eighth graph is Utah to Wyoming. Washington and Virginia look relatively good in this graph. Vermont has dropped sharply then risen in the past two weeks after rising since early May. Wyoming rose in the first two weeks of June to a level equal to early May. The other states in this graph bump along at moderate growth rates without improving.
2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple parts cars.