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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 23 Jun 2022, 12:10
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.142) with 1.545,001 cases, Montana (0.141) with 283,054 cases, Guam (0.119) with 51,084 cases, West Virginia (0.119) with 528,651 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.096) with 20,760 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 442 of the last 685 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 108 of the last 185 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 97 of the last 169 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 199 of the last 290 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0303 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0296. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 88 of last 143 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
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State Growth 062322 B.png (136.69 KiB) Viewed 156 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 24 Jun 2022, 14:48
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.164) with 529,262 cases, Minnesota (0.141) with 1.546,698 cases, Guam (0.135) with 51,234 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.120) with 20,789 cases, and Arkansas (0.106) with 859,615 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 200 of the last 291 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 443 of the last 686 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 98 of the last 170 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 16 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0317 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0303. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 88 of last 144 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062422 A.png
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State Growth 062422 B.png (135.39 KiB) Viewed 145 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 25 Jun 2022, 13:42
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.164) with 529,262 cases, Minnesota (0.141) with 1.546,698 cases, Guam (0.135) with 51,234 cases, Montana (0.120) with 285,017 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 20,789 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 201 of the last 292 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 444 of the last 687 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 99 of the last 171 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 109 of the last 187 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0134 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.031. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 89 of last 145 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062522 A.png
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State Growth 062522 B.png (133.49 KiB) Viewed 134 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 20 Jun 2022, 12:51
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut
I have updated the graphs for the last week (June 19 to June 25, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was up from the past week, and crossed into positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, and 21 day count were down slightly the past week, while the 14 day was up slightly. New Case Count average increased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average increased slightly for the week.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut
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New Case Slope 062622.png
New Case Slope 062622.png (46.75 KiB) Viewed 126 times
Days to Double 062622.png
Days to Double 062622.png (61.88 KiB) Viewed 126 times
New Case Count Average 062622.png
New Case Count Average 062622.png (27.67 KiB) Viewed 126 times
Growth Rate Average 062622.png
Growth Rate Average 062622.png (41.14 KiB) Viewed 126 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 26 Jun 2022, 14:41
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.164) with 529,262 cases, Minnesota (0.141) with 1.546,698 cases, Guam (0.135) with 51,234 cases, Montana (0.120) with 285,017 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 20,789 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 202 of the last 293 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 445 of the last 688 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 100 of the last 172 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 110 of the last 188 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00480 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0134. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 90 of last 146 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062622 A.png
State Growth 062622 A.png (152.42 KiB) Viewed 118 times
State Growth 062622 B.png
State Growth 062622 B.png (132.39 KiB) Viewed 118 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 27 Jun 2022, 13:12
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 27, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.182) with 530,612 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 1,548,208 cases, Guam (0.140) with 51,437 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.132) with 20,828 cases, and Montana (0.120) with 285,017 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 203 of the last 294 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 446 of the last 689 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 101 of the last 173 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 111 of the last 189 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0162 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00480. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 27 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 90 of last 147 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 88 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062722 A.png
State Growth 062722 A.png (148.66 KiB) Viewed 106 times
State Growth 062722 B.png
State Growth 062722 B.png (134.75 KiB) Viewed 106 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 28 Jun 2022, 10:35
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.194) with 531,176 cases, Minnesota (0.183) with 1,551,559 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.151) with 20,878 cases, Guam (0.150) with 51,588 cases, and Montana (0.120) with 285,017 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 204 of the last 295 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 447 of the last 690 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 102 of the last 174 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 112 of the last 190 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0240 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0162. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 26 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 90 of last 148 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062822 A.png
State Growth 062822 A.png (156.06 KiB) Viewed 96 times
State Growth 062822 B.png
State Growth 062822 B.png (135.37 KiB) Viewed 96 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 12:30
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 531,843 cases, Minnesota (0.183) with 1,552,840 cases, Guam (0.157) with 51,769 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.138) with 20,899 cases, and Wyoming (0.135) with 164,456 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 205 of the last 296 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 448 of the last 691 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 103 of the last 175 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 7 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0306 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0240. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 11 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 90 of last 149 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 062922 A.png
State Growth 062922 A.png (158.41 KiB) Viewed 82 times
State Growth 062922 B.png
State Growth 062922 B.png (139.16 KiB) Viewed 82 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 30 Jun 2022, 12:45
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for June 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.197) with 532,503 cases, Guam (0.167) with 51,898 cases, Wyoming (0.135) with 164,456 cases, Montana (0.120) with 285,017 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 20,928 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 206 of the last 297 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 104 of the last 176 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 113 of the last 192 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 8 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0254 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0306. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 90 of last 150 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 063022 A.png
State Growth 063022 A.png (156.21 KiB) Viewed 70 times
State Growth 063022 B.png
State Growth 063022 B.png (137.26 KiB) Viewed 70 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 01 Jul 2022, 12:35
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for July 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.199) with 533,213 cases, Guam (0.157) with 52,067 cases, Wyoming (0.135) with 164,456 cases, Montana (0.134) with 287,145 cases, and North Dakota (0.121) with 250,035 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 207 of the last 298 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 105 of the last 177 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 114 of the last 193 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 28 of the last 59 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0302 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0254. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 90 of last 151 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 070122 A.png
State Growth 070122 A.png (156.49 KiB) Viewed 61 times
State Growth 070122 B.png
State Growth 070122 B.png (135.84 KiB) Viewed 61 times
2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple parts cars.

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