Coronavirus Thread

Phainein7 · Post by **Phainein7** » 06 Apr 2020, 15:21

abscate wrote: ↑06 Apr 2020, 14:181918 epidemic

There were 3 pandemic waves in 1918–1919, which happened in the spring-summer, summer-fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively, with the fall wave from September to November 1918 being highly fatal. When mice were infected with a 1918 (H1N1) recombinant virus (r1918), they were history within five days, and this research suggested cytokine storms were afoot back then.

The concept "cytokine storm" is relativity new, with its first journal usage of this expression around 1993, btw.

German researchers did a detailed evaluation of replication patterns of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19); and a virologist gives a layperson overview here.

Post by **volvolugnut** » 06 Apr 2020, 18:41

volvolugnut wrote: ↑06 Apr 2020, 09:07

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.088 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.133. This was the first time since March 6 the USA growth rate has been this low. There are many states with growth rates now below 0.01 which calculates to doubling cases in over a week.

volvolugnut

I found an error in my comment this morning. Sentence should read: There are many states with growth rates now below 0.10 which calculates to doubling cases in over a week.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 07 Apr 2020, 08:30

volvolugnut wrote: ↑06 Apr 2020, 09:07 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 6, 2020.

For your information, the top 5 states yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are South Dakota, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Texas. South Dakota (at 0.36) is the only state now with growth rate over 0.25. It has 288 total cases. Texas has 8088 cases and growth rate of 0.18.

For comparison, yesterday the growth rate for Italy was 0.0394, Spain was 0.0621, Germany was 0.0465, France was 0.075, and UK was 0.0889. France and UK have been very close to US growth rates for the last week. On some days one or the other is higher than US.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.098 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.088.
There are now 28 states with infection growth rate below 0.10. This is a significant improvement over a week ago (March 30), When 18 states had growth rates of 0.10 or lower.
Previous day US deaths were 1165 and yesterday deaths were 1255. The highest deaths per day were on April 4 with 1330 deaths in the US.
Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Phainein7 · Post by **Phainein7** » 07 Apr 2020, 22:56

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Hydroxychloroquine: how an unproven drug became Trump’s coronavirus 'miracle cure'
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On another note, this graph illustrates the difference between a typical flu virus and Covid-19.

Note - Not a current graph since Covid-19 total is about 12,901 currently.
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As San Francisco imposed coronavirus shelter-in-place rules, Los Angeles waited
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: C2apture.JPG (85.04 KiB) Viewed 645 times

Post by **abscate** » 08 Apr 2020, 04:45

It’s wrong to report the early growth rates as equal because the numbers were so low that the noise was greater than the measurement.

SF could just be 5 weeks behind the curve of LA and could trend exactly the same.

Post by **RickHaleParker** » 08 Apr 2020, 04:56

abscate wrote: ↑08 Apr 2020, 04:45 It’s wrong to report the early growth rates as equal because the numbers were so low that the noise was greater than the measurement.

Absolute number of cases for comparison is meaningless. Cases per capita would have some meaning. Los Angeles Population 4 million. San Francisco population 885,000.

Graphing number of weeks or days since first case instead of using dates would be more meaningful.

Post by **abscate** » 08 Apr 2020, 05:03

RickHaleParker wrote: ↑08 Apr 2020, 04:56
abscate wrote: ↑08 Apr 2020, 04:45 It’s wrong to report the early growth rates as equal because the numbers were so low that the noise was greater than the measurement.
Absolute number of cases for comparison is meaningless. Cases per capita would have some meaning. Los Angeles Population 4 million. San Francisco population 885,000.

Graphing number of weeks or days since first case instead of using dates would be more meaningful.

^^ This.

Post by **abscate** » 08 Apr 2020, 05:05

After all this is over there are going to be classes on the visual representation of data and Fails!

Post by **RickHaleParker** » 08 Apr 2020, 05:10

The point the graph above is trying to make but falls short of is: There will be a price to pay for the two months of procrastination.

Phainein7 · Post by **Phainein7** » 08 Apr 2020, 07:44

RickHaleParker wrote: ↑08 Apr 2020, 04:56Los Angeles Population 4 million. San Francisco population 885,000.

Article stated, "On March 16, San Francisco joined six Bay Area counties to announce strong protections, including requiring residents to shelter in place, effective the next day," but graph's stats represent San Francisco County. Bay Area represents about 7.6 million people, and currently, there are 4,033 cases and 111 Bay Area residents who have died. Los Angeles County has some 10.16 million people with 169 deaths and 6910 cases.

Do note, these are deaths over time, not in a single day

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