Coronavirus Thread

[RickHaleParker]

Not trying to dump on your state Rick, but I read the Governor is under fire for poor processing of Unemployment claims.

Desperate diversion attempt by the KS-GOP and another display of stupidity. The Kansas Department of Labor (KDOL) processes unemployment claims and the KDOL is separate from the Governor's office. The KDOL was doing a shitty job before Governor Kelly took office.

Weren’t these the same guys who decided we didn’t need government a few years back?

Wtf?

I guess you could say it the same group of guys. What you are referring to happen during Governor Brownback's administration. Sam Brownback is now Trump's Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. Idealistic prick who will do anything to avoid admitting he was wrong.

Brownback was doing trickle down economics when the Governor of Kansas. When his trickle down economics turned into a disaster, he tried to cover it up by shifting funds around, including school funding. They hauled is ass up before the Kansas supreme court. The court told him the law requires the schools to be funded. He is going to comply whether he likes or now.

Even the KS-GOP told him his trickle down economics was not working. The KS-GOP pass a bill for corrective action. They had to over ride his veto.

Good thing Brownback isn't in Kansas anymore. He would say COVID-19 is God's will, do not interfere with God's will.

[Phainein7]

Kansas...Governor is under fire for poor processing of Unemployment claims.

There were at least two states with this issue, which was computer related. IIRC, Kansas was going to use Amazon web services.
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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.250) with 1168 cases, Minnesota (0.161) with 1809 cases, North Dakota (0.124) with 365 cases, Arkansas (0.099) with 1599 cases, and District of Columbia (0.094) with 2197 cases.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.055 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0512. We have not had a day over day drop in all USA growth rate since April 6. I looked deeper into this change in day over day growth rate. There were 33 states and territories yesterday with day over day increase in growth rates. Six had more than double the previous day growth rate. Idaho had over 11 times the previous day, jumping from 11 to 123 cases. Have we become complacent already?

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

As we say here in the oil producing area of the country - there is good news and bad news. The goods news is the price of crude oil is now below $20. The bad news is the price of crude oil is below $20.
The price last year was over $50. This puts a lot of Oklahomans and Texans out of work.
volvolugnut

[bronco]

State growth rates for April 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.250) with 1168 cases, Minnesota (0.161) with 1809 cases, North Dakota (0.124) with 365 cases, Arkansas (0.099) with 1599 cases, and District of Columbia (0.094) with 2197 cases.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.055 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0512. We have not had a day over day drop in all USA growth rate since April 6. I looked deeper into this change in day over day growth rate. There were 33 states and territories yesterday with day over day increase in growth rates. Six had more than double the previous day growth rate. Idaho had over 11 times the previous day, jumping from 11 to 123 cases. Have we become complacent already?

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

Its more a case of the data being unreliable . New York just pencilled in over 3000 deaths from earlier.

Mass has low numbers of new cases on Sundays is that accurate? , Mass added over 134 deaths in one day but if you look at them they date back to the end of March . Until we see numbers where the new cases are attributed to the date the test was taken not the date the results came in( which may be 10 days or 5 minutes delayed) and the deaths are marked down on the day they occurred not two weeks later the numbers dont make a lot of sense

Lots of raw numbers coming in but they need to be adjusted at somepoint

[abscate]

Is the overall us growth rate the average of the state rates, weighted by population?

Sorry if answered previously.

[bronco]

Is the overall us growth rate the average of the state rates, weighted by population?

Sorry if answered previously.

I think that it will be 6 months before the real numbers are available. Right now its like drinking from a fire hose

[volvolugnut]

Answers to questions above.

I agree these daily numbers get revised and updated. I do not try to go back and find the revisions. Yes, I agree numbers will be revised for months. The local people are still sorting out the gathering and totaling processes. This is why I have included the disclaimer the actual results may vary.

I have not adjusted US averages for state populations (population weighted). That would be a better indication.

Thanks for looking at this information. I realize it may be distortion of actual ground truth, but I think it gives some comparisions to consider. I am not a journalist or reporter and do not claim to have all correct information. But, I do like to study the information and tease out a few interesting results. More will be coming soon.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

Many state and federal authorities are claiming they are 'flattening the curve' of COVID-19 cases. I assume they mean that the spreading of the virus is slowing. If that is true, than the growth rate that I have been tracking and reporting should show reductions. Even better would be continuous improvement in reducing the growth rate.

I have taken the 5 Day Moving Average results from April and compared the changes. The results are shown in the table below. I checked to see if the moving average from 3 days previous was higher or lower for 4 periods. I highlighted in yellow the instances where later days averages were higher - a calculated number greater than 1.0 (not the desired change direction). I also, highlighted in green the states with steady declines in the moving averages.

Of particular interest is the last two periods covering the latest week. If a state has a large increase in either or both of these latest periods, the claim of flattening the curve does not have much credibility. Look at Idaho, Louisiana, and Michigan.

[bronco]

Many state and federal authorities are claiming they are 'flattening the curve' of COVID-19 cases. I assume they mean that the spreading of the virus is slowing. If that is true, than the growth rate that I have been tracking and reporting should show reductions. Even better would be continuous improvement in reducing the growth rate.

I have taken the 5 Day Moving Average results from April and compared the changes. The results are shown in the table below. I checked to see if the moving average from 3 days previous was higher or lower for 4 periods. I highlighted in yellow the instances where later days averages were higher - a calculated number greater than 1.0 (not the desired change direction). I also, highlighted in green the states with steady declines in the moving averages.

Of particular interest is the last two periods covering the latest week. If a state has a large increase in either or both of these latest periods, the claim of flattening the curve does not have much credibility. Look at Idaho, Louisiana, and Michigan.

Another problem with numbers is that as health professionals gain experience with this testing strategy may evolve.

To me New York may have the highest number of positives and highest cases which seems to show about half the tests come back positive. Initially I suppose that meant they were short of tests and by the time you got tested they were pretty sure you had it, but does it still mean that? Are they well equppied now with tests but unable to scale up testing or testing at the rate they think is best ?

Mass is around 1 in 5 tests positive, do they have a lot more tests available or are they deploying them differently? If New york is short of tests and had more would they have 500,000 cases out of a million tests or 250,000 out of a million? Is every case backed up by a positive test? Are some assumed ?

No idea if all states are equally short of tests or if so deploying them the same way, and is it better or worse that they are essentially following 50 different strategies?

We have to wait and see which state did the best job with the materials at hand. If it is true that different areas have wildly different levels of risk then this state by state approach is probably the best way to go about it