Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Kansas (0.253) with 2955 cases, Iowa (0.223) with 4445 cases, Minnesota (0.201) with 3185 cases, Nebraska (0.145) with 2421 cases, and Massachusetts (0.139) with 50,969 cases. Kansas, Minnesota, and Massachusetts are up sharply or several days. Oklahoma, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Connecticut now have a downward trend. Florida and Louisiana are now on flat trend.

Yesterday I looked closer to see which states that have growth rate trending higher. I compared the 5 day moving average for April 23 to April 18. The top 10 worst performers (increasing growth rate average) are: Guam (4.4), Arkansas (2.9), South Carolina (1.80), Tennessee (1.4), Kansas (1.4), Nebraska (1.3), Iowa (1.2), Washington (1.2), Utah (1.1), and Idaho (1.1). The number is the later date moving average divided by the earlier date moving average. For April 24, Tennessee, Kansas, Iowa, and Washington state had growth rate rise again.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0521 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0439. I hope this trend does not continue. This is not population or case number weighted.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Kansas (0.253) with 2955 cases, Iowa (0.223) with 4445 cases,....

Both states have meat packing businesses, where covid-19 is more rampant. In Kansas, there are five/six counties where increased positives keep rising/rising, whereas within those other counties, its none to very small increases. Clusters (prisons, businesses,churches, care facilities, etc) appear to be main sources in all but two largest populated counties.
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8 In 10 Americans Support COVID-19 Shutdown, Kaiser Health Poll Finds
====================

Philip Kahn, a 100-year-old World War II veteran, died on April 17
from the coronavirus. His twin brother, Samuel, died a century earlier
as an infant during another pandemic, the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.

Philip Kahn, 100, Dies; Spanish Flu Took His Twin a Century Ago
Aware of the irony of dying during a pandemic, he said history repeats
itself. A family member called the brothers "pandemic bookends."
=========================


Human wisdom is needed to defeat the pandemic
...
...
Looking back at the history of pandemics, what comes to mind first is
the plague of the 14th century, which first hit Central Asia and
spread all over the world like a flash through the globalization
routes in Eurasia that arose under Pax Mongolica. It destroyed China's
Yuan Dynasty and is said to have killed one-third to a half of the
European population.

What happened as a result? The plague gave rise to two phenomena. One
is the "memento mori," a symbolic reminder of the inevitability of
death. Many people thought the plague happened because God was angry,
and so tried to be more pious. They thought they must serve God more.
The other is "carpe diem," seizing the moment without giving thought
to the future. People thought God would not necessarily save them and
that it was better to enjoy life more. A representative example of
this attitude is Giovanni Boccaccio's masterpiece "Decameron." This
re-examination of human existence led to the birth of the first phase
of the Renaissance in Italy, the glorious Quattorocento.
======================

Note - From The Onion....about one month ago

3/25/20

Man Just Buying One Of Every Cleaning Product In Case Trump Announces
It's Coronavirus Cure

EVANSTON, WY --- Throwing bottles of bleach, ammonia, and Drano into a
cart at his local grocery store, area man Troy Mitchell was reportedly
stocking up on one of every cleaning product he could find Wednesday
in case President Donald Trump announces it is a coronavirus cure.

[Phainein7]

Walmart store in Colorado shuts down after coronavirus deaths

Public health officials in Aurora, Colorado, ordered a Walmart
supercenter to shut down Thursday after a 72-year-old Walmart worker,
her 63-year-old husband, and a 69-year-old third-party security
contractor for the company died from coronavirus.

Six additional employees at the store tested positive for coronavirus,
the Tri-County Health Department in Colorado said Thursday. Three
other workers were suspected of having the virus and were awaiting lab
results.

The department said it closed the store after receiving complaints
from employees and shoppers about the "lack of social distancing, too
many people in the store at one time, and employees not wearing masks
or face coverings."
=======================

'No Evidence' That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says

The World Health Organization has pushed back against the theory that
individuals can only catch the coronavirus once, as well as proposals
for reopening society that are based on this supposed immunity.

In a scientific brief dated Friday, the United Nations agency said the
idea that one-time infection can lead to immunity remains unproven and
is thus unreliable as a foundation for the next phase of the world's
response to the pandemic.
=====================

This new evidence shows nicotine might prevent smokers from contracting the coronavirus

Nicotine could prevent smokers from catching the coronavirus-borne
disease COVID-19, according to new research in France, but the
evidence also shows that, once caught, the disease is more serious if
patients happen to be smokers.

The study suggests nicotine potentially blocks the virus from
attaching to cells. Doctors had noticed a low number of smokers among
patients being treated for the coronavirus, which was not
statistically proportionate.
...
...
In France, researchers at Paris's Pitie-Salpetriere hospital quizzed
480 patients with the virus and established that only 5% were smokers
--- lower than the average 35% rate seen in the country.

If approval to continue the research is given, they plan to ask health
workers to wear nicotine patches, in order to monitor infection rates.

The research seemed to tally with data seen last month in the New England Journal of Medicine, which investigated the impact of smoking on Chinese coronavirus patients. In China, around 26% of the population are smokers, but the research showed just 12.6% of 1,000 people infected in China were smokers.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (1.00) with 55 cases, Iowa (0.237) with 5092 cases, Minnesota (0.191) with 3446 cases, South Carolina (0.151) with 5253 cases, and Nebraska (0.132) with 2732 cases. Virgin Islands growth rate is not of concern, because of their very low number of cases.

In the last few days, information for Veterans Affairs and Navajo Nation have been added at the bottom of the list.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0464 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0521. This is not population or case number weighted.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

Within one state, those who are spreading it around the most are mainly within these age brackets, which would suggest those employed.
.
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Capture.JPG (18.23 KiB) Viewed 1157 times

.
.
Within last month, a traveling nurse was infected, and this nurse infected three others within one county. Three counties have meat packing plants, and their case numbers kept climbing. In two largest populated counties with much higher counts, I suspect clusters along with community spread is responsible. One county had 6 clusters, and when officials can't quarantine them soon enough, upwards goes the positives. Thus, biggest issue is when people don't take covid-19 seriously, and go at and about, and spread it around when they feel good.
================

Note - Strong correlation of Fox viewers watching Sean Hannity having a 'not worth it' attitude....just another flu, or less.

Are shelter-in-place measures worth it to protect people and limit
coronavirus spread or placing unnecessary burdens on people and
economy and more harm than good? (via @KFF poll)

Democrats:
94% worth it
5% unnecessary burden

Republicans:
61% worth it
38% unnecessary burden
================================

Japan: Virus stigma driving Tokyo's front-line hospitals to edge of collapse

Doctors and other medical staff at designated COVID-19 hospitals in
the capital say their situation is reaching a critical point.

Interviewed by phone and email earlier this week, they say some
colleagues have already quit, fearing their family will be stigmatized
by fear of the disease. The names of the hospitals and the sources
interviewed for this story are being kept confidential.
=================

'Corona divorce': Tokyo firm offers rooms to give people a break from
their spouses

With the spread of the coronavirus changing the lifestyles of people
across Japan, some couples are being forced to address underlying
issues in their relationships that have largely gone ignored until
now, pushing them to the brink of divorce.

But one service is stepping in to help them save their marriages
before it is too late, offering couples a breather from each other as
they try to obey stay-at-home requests.

After the phrase "corona divorce" surfaced on social media earlier
this month, Kasoku, a Tokyo-based firm providing short-term rental
units, launched an initiative to give couples the time and space they
desperately needed.

"The goal is to avoid divorce," said Kosuke Amano, the company's
spokesman. "We hope couples first distance themselves and think about
(their marriage). For our part, we will provide rooms that they can
live in and an environment for teleworking."
======================

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (1.00) with 57 cases, Wyoming (0.200) with 502 cases, Delaware (0.173) with 4034 cases, South Carolina (0.171) with 5490 cases, and North Dakota (0.134) with 867 cases. Virgin Islands growth rate is not of concern, because of their very low number of cases. South Carolina and North Dakota had sharp increase in the last 2 days. Most states mentioned recently had flat or declining growth rates yesterday.

Good news is that a growth rate equal or below 0.20 for all 50 states has only happened 3 other times in the past 2 weeks.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0336 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0464. This large drop is likely temporary as a drop on Sunday is typical of the last several weeks. This is not population or case number weighted.

At the current US average growth rate, total cases will double in about 3 weeks. However, growth rates have been declining slowly so doubling will likely take longer.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

Siemens Healthineers to expand SARS-CoV-2 testing to include a total
antibody test to aid in the COVID-19 pandemic

Erlangen, Germany Apr 23, 2020
...
...
With a demonstrated sensitivity and specificity of more than 99
percent, the test is expected to exceed the stringent FDA quality
guidelines
==================================

Ontario unveils 'careful stage-by-stage approach' to loosen
coronavirus prevention measures. Plan involves 3 stages, with each
being monitored by health authorities for 2 to 4 weeks. (1 of 4)
=================

Tyson Foods didn't mince words in a full page @nytimes ad Sunday,
warning, "the food supply chain is breaking."

"As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close...millions
of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain," John Tyson
wrote.
=====================

So as best I can tell this morning we now have:

- A pandemic crisis
- A supply chain crisis
- A demand crisis
- A labor market crisis
- An equity market crisis
- An oil price crisis
- A brewing bond market crisis
- A developing currency crisis
- A potential housing market crisis
================================

'Burn it to the ground.' Rumors over COVID-19 spur threats against
church in rural NC
===============================

The data is in --- stop the panic and end the total isolation
=====

After COVID-19: Anxious, wary first responders back on job

[volvolugnut]

A website found where you can see information on social distancing compliance. This looks at total US, states and county level. https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social- ... scoreboard

We do not get good grades in most areas.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (1.00) with 59 cases, North Dakota (0.143) with 942 cases, Minnesota (0.138) with 3816 cases, Nebraska (0.112) with 3358 cases, and Iowa (0.104) with 5868 cases. Virgin Islands growth rate is not of concern, because of their very low number of cases. Minnesota had an increase yesterday. Most states mentioned recently had flat or declining growth rates yesterday.

Growth rate was below 0.15 for all 50 states yesterday.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0285 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0336. This is the lowest US growth rate since my calculations started on March 3. This is not population or case number weighted.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

...information on social distancing compliance. This looks at total US, states and county level. https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social- ... scoreboard

Quick assessment for one state....not relevant. State has 55 clusters of infections (nursing homes, hospitals, religious gatherings, meat packing plants and Correctional Facility). For instance, Correctional Facility has 65 inmates and 71 prison employees testing positive. And that county gets a "D" grade. Where I live, a grade B is given, but its most likely based upon the only 2 cases todate, where first person (senior: deceased) took a trip to Oklahoma, brought back covid-19, and then infected a co-worker (out of ICU and home) when they took a pickup ride for several hours on a business trip.
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