Coronavirus Thread

[Phainein7]

People its all a bunch of fear mongering.

Forgot to mention...why does Uncle Sam need body bags?

One thing evident in internal documents is that goods like body bags
are often acquired by FEMA through other government agencies, which
can make it harder for the public to track the full number. We found
at least 108K for FEMA in last two weeks.
...
...

While Trump minimizes the toll, government orders 100,000 new body
bags Federal coronavirus response documents obtained by NBC News
suggest the president's optimism about 'Opening Up America' is at odds
with dire warnings from inside his administration.
nbcnews.com
====================

Open Up and Recover Safely

A Three-phase Approach to Open Oklahoma’s Economy

Oklahoma will begin implementing a three-phased approach to open Oklahoma’s economy
back up starting April 24, 2020. This statewide plan is:

[abscate]

Bad flu season kills 50,000 Americans

So, this turns out to be interesting. It turns out no one tabulates typical flu deaths by cause of death, this is a projection by CDC based on algorithms.

What is known from the death rate is that anyone who thought that this is just a” bad flu” is unequivocally wrong.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: South Carolina (0.206) with 6489 cases, Puerto Rico (0.167) with 1757 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 6228 cases, Iowa (0.157) with 8641 cases, and Tennessee (0.125) with 12,661 cases. States in Bold have reopened to various levels.

Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... rus-cases/ has started to add state curve information to their website. Not many states added yet, but Florida, Pennsylvania and New Jersey are shown.

A new column added on the left today shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No states yesterday over 2.00.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0329 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0410. This is not population or case number weighted. The US growth rate average has risen the last 4 days.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

Bad flu season kills 50,000 Americans

...this is a projection by CDC based on algorithms....anyone who thought that this is just a” bad flu” is unequivocally wrong.

This US wide graph below shows new cases are not decreasing with warmer weather. Death counts will be increasing in other states, and these people will be inserted into body bags.
=============
May 03, 2020
U.S. Records 'Deadliest Day Yet' as People Around the World Begin to Exit Lockdown - Health experts warn a second wave of infections could hit unless testing is expanded dramatically

Gu's model projects that U.S. Covid-19 deaths by early August could be as low as 88,217 and as high as 293,381, with a most likely toll of 150,760.
.

graph.JPG (72.9 KiB) Viewed 815 times

.
.
Wave of Repossessions Coming as Subprime Auto Buyers Miss Payments

Credit Acceptance Corp., the lender to car buyers with subprime credit
scores, warned it's seeing a sharp drop-off in payments as people
shift their financial priorities to get through the coronavirus
pandemic.
========================

Late car payments and coronavirus: What to do if you can't pay yourbills

You have a few new options if you're worried about making your auto
loan payment during the pandemic.

[Phainein7]

Opinion ! She Predicted the Coronavirus. What Does She Foresee Next?
Laurie Garrett, the prophet of this pandemic, expects years of death
and "collective rage."
...
Cassandra, of course, was the prophetess of Greek mythology who was
doomed to issue unheeded warnings. What Garrett has been warning most
direly about --- in her 1994 best seller, "The Coming Plague," and in
subsequent books and speeches, including TED Talks --- is a pandemic
like the current one.
...
"I've been telling everybody that my event horizon is about 36 months,
and that's my best-case scenario," she said.

"I'm quite certain that this is going to go in waves," she added. "It
won't be a tsunami that comes across America all at once and then
retreats all at once. It will be micro-waves that shoot up in Des
Moines and then in New Orleans and then in Houston and so on, and it's
going to affect how people think about all kinds of things."

They'll re-evaluate the importance of travel. They'll reassess their
use of mass transit. They'll revisit the need for face-to-face
business meetings. They'll reappraise having their kids go to college
out of state.
=======================

I've mentioned this topic before, but being with an infected person in an enclosed environment for a period of time can be very hazardous to your health. The one person I'm aware of drove around for three hours in a pickup truck with a covid-19 infected person...and he had to be flown by helicopter to a hospital for ICU care...he survived, but not the other one.

"A high infectious dose may lead to a higher viral load, which can
impact the severity of Covid-19 symptoms.

Viral load is a measure of virus particles. It is the amount of virus
present once a person has been infected and the virus has had time to
replicate in their cells. With most viruses, higher viral loads are
associated with worse outcomes.

“The more viral particles that get into the lungs, the more damage to
the lungs that is probably happening,” said Hardy.
...
...
In Italy, a country particularly hard-hit by the virus, about 9% of
reported cases were health care workers. Here in the U.S., 10% of
Covid-19 cases in California were health care workers, according to
the California Department of Public Health.
===================

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.200) with 148 cases, Minnesota (0.127) with 6643 cases, South Carolina (0.102) with 6626 cases, Oklahoma (0.100) with 3942 cases, and Iowa (0.099) with 9169 cases. States in Bold have reopened to various levels.

Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... rus-cases/ has started to add state curve information to their website. A few more states added yesterday.

A new column added on the right (I said left the last several days - no one called me on this) today shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No states yesterday over 2.00

I added a new column on the right for average state rank for April 15 to May 3. It is of interest to compare various states in the news. Minnesota has been in top 5 growth rate list for many days. Their average rank among states is 51.8. Michigan has had protestors wanting the state to reopen. Michigan's average rank is 14.2. Other states of interest and their rank: New York (11.9), California (24.5), Florida (11.4). Some early opening states are: Georgia (18.2), Oklahoma (43.1), Mississippi (28.9), South Carolina (39.1), and Texas (34.1).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0293 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0329. This is not population or case number weighted. The drop the last two days may be a 'weekend effect'.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.177) with 7234 cases, Kansas (0.112) with 5328 cases, Iowa (0.092) with 9703 cases, South Carolina (0.089) with 6757 cases, and Mississippi (0.085) with 7877 cases. States in Bold have reopened to various levels.

Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... rus-cases/ has started to add state curve information to their website. A few more states added yesterday.

A new column added on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No states yesterday over 2.00

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0263 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0293. This is not population or case number weighted. The US average has dropped three days in a row.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[bronco]

The number of new cases per day means very little. Some people are still waiting 7 days for results. If they were a week into it by the time they got a test then they could get the results on day 14 !

The other thing is much increased daily testing numbers and lower percentage of positives. Early on New york was seeing 50% positives which is a sign of not enough tests. Not sure what they see today for % but yesterday in Mass there were only 1000 new cases on over 9000 tests . Thats the lowest number of positives in weeks with a rate of only 12% or so.

My cousin here had a temp of 102 2 nights ago , took some advil and called his doctor . He was scheduled to get a test today which they told him would take 2 days to come back. He hasn't had a temp or taken any meds since. He said he feels fine today. If he had a temp Sunday night and was infected maybe it happened Wednesday or Thursday he thinks . He Didn't work Friday or Saturday or Sunday And was told not to come in until he had a negative result . Point being he will probably be 7 or 8 days in before he has any results his doctor thinks.
So here in Mass more tests are happening sooner and results are coming in sooner , but it will still be 4 days at least from when he felt sick until he knows.

The other thing about Mass is the daily deaths have been declining for a week or more. Not the reported today death numbers but the deaths occurred on a set calendar day numbers which can lag the actual date they are recorded by a week or two.

Bottom line , the daily data is more noise than signal still. The deaths are going to decline from here on for the simple reason that the most vulnerable people already got it and either died or recovered. There is no new population of septuagenarians with multiple pre existing conditions to be infected. The worst managed facilities have already been hit and the survivors are safe and the ones that didn't survive are beyond the reach of the virus.

There are probably a few hundred nursing homes that will never be able to reopen and a lot of families are going to rethink their end of life care arrangements in light of how truly awful these places were just proven to be.

[volvolugnut]

I agree that daily new cases and deaths have delays in reporting. No way around that with the numbers involved. However, the lag should be at least somewhat consistent and averaging over time will give trends. I have been reporting 5 day moving averages. My state is using 7 day moving average for monitoring new case trends.
I don't expect to see a great decline in new cases or deaths for many weeks. I only hope that there will not be a great increase in both measures.
volvolugnut

[bronco]

I agree that daily new cases and deaths have delays in reporting. No way around that with the numbers involved. However, the lag should be at least somewhat consistent and averaging over time will give trends. I have been reporting 5 day moving averages. My state is using 7 day moving average for monitoring new case trends.
I don't expect to see a great decline in new cases or deaths for many weeks. I only hope that there will not be a great increase in both measures.
volvolugnut

look at the dashboard the state of Mass posts every day. Number of deaths per day declining for over 10 days now, hospitalization peaked on april 22 or so

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashb ... 0/download