Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

look at the dashboard the state of Mass posts every day. Number of deaths per day declining for over 10 days now, hospitalization peaked on april 22 or so

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashb ... 0/download

I see, you are considering Massachusetts, while I am thinking of across the entire US.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

...deaths are going to decline from here on for the simple reason that the most vulnerable people already got it and either died or recovered.

It has been suggested with a number of states reducing confinement practices that a "daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1."

"At least 1,000 people with the virus, and sometimes more than 2,000, have died every day for the last month."

"The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways."

If an effective Rx treatment exists, this could affect this model's prediction, but researchers have suggested recently the virus has mutated to a more contagious virus.

Biggest group affected will be those 55+ and I would suspect most of these people are paying attention to news. There are still plenty of nursing homes, penal institutions, etc., that have not experienced covid-19. Unless people are required to wear masks when going back to work, there will be a rise in positives.

PS: Nice layout of stats in Mass...excellent
==================================

A Washington Post and University of Maryland national poll released
Tuesday finds Americans widely oppose reopening most businesses. While
56% said they are comfortable going to the grocery store now, 67% said
they would be uncomfortable visiting a retail store and 78% said
they'd be uncomfortable going to a sit-down restaurant, according to
the poll.
============

Bad News --- Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Infects Cells of the Intestine and
Multiplies There
=======================


The coronavirus pandemic could last up to 2 years, according to US
experts. They predict we may see a 2nd, larger wave of infections this
fall.
======================

Keep your mask handy, Denver. According to a public health order
issued by Denver Mayor Michael B. Hancock on Friday, all Denver
residents will be required to wear a face mask in certain public
settings beginning Wednesday.
...
...
The city news release said "multiple agencies" will be involved in
enforcing the order, with the goal of compliance. Anyone violating the
order could face a civil penalty of up to $999, per violation.
============
.

[Phainein7]

I am thinking of across the entire US.

From a different perspective.....

Trump is bringing death to Red America - By ignoring the disease so long as it spread only in big Blue Cities, Trump allowed it to penetrate rest of country. And then by encouraging rest of country to open before testing/tracing/isolation regime Trump is converting penetration to outbreak
==============

If children engage this summer with activities, and knowing virus can be spread via respiratory and now fecal-oral transmission, there could be a large number of people affected. Looking at case stats for those in high school and below, few have been affected since schools were closed. Kawasaki like disease will be increasing for younger ones, along with higher death numbers. This summer may be a royal bummer for many families....unless Rx treatments exist.


.
=============
What should be more important in lifting restrictions: making sure as
few as possible get sick or making sure the economy doesn't go into a
deep downturn? (via new Monmouth poll)

Democrats:
80% fewest sick
12% economic downturn

Republicans:
54% economic downturn
36% fewest sick
==================

FDA: Makers of coronavirus antibody tests must now show tests actually
work

Regulatory "flexibility" was never meant to allow fraud, agency says.

After a gush of bogus coronavirus blood tests, the US Food and Drug
Administration announced Monday that test makers must submit data
within 10 days showing that their tests actually work---or risk
getting purged from the market.
..
...
The FDA said it has so far authorized just 12 tests, but reviews for
over 200 others are in the works.
============

"Desperate for Wi-Fi, Many Have Nowhere to Go but a Parking Lot

With cafes and libraries closed, Americans without internet access are
sitting outside them to get free and fast connections."
nytimes.com

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.238) with 7851 cases, Kentucky (0.149) with 5822 cases, Wisconsin (0.084) with 8566 cases, Mississippi (0.079) with 8207 cases, and Oklahoma (0.074) with 4127 cases. States in Bold have reopened to various levels. Minnesota has only dropped below rank of 50 three times since April 15.

Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... rus-cases/ has started to add state curve information to their website.

A new column added on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kentucky and Hawaii yesterday were over 2.00.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0291 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0293. This is not population or case number weighted.

We are in a critical time now as some states start to loosen restrictions. Continue to do your part to stay healthy and keep virus spread down.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[ZionXIX]

Just to add to the statistics. Dallas TX here where I live keeps settings new record high on a daily basis for positive cases. Then the last week or so they are opening up stores again. This is going to be a nightmare.

[volvolugnut]

Just to add to the statistics. Dallas TX here where I live keeps settings new record high on a daily basis for positive cases. Then the last week or so they are opening up stores again. This is going to be a nightmare.

This battle is going to be door to door (well, neighborhood to neighborhood). State data is not near detailed enough to show what is happening and where the trouble spots are located.
I am very concerned we are trying to trade economic activity for health.
volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

This is going to be a nightmare.

As noted above, " Trump is converting penetration to outbreak"

Again, if school age kids are active this summer, there will be an Inferno-Together, they race across Europe and against the clock to stop a madman from unleashing a global virus that would wipe out half of the world's population.

The "madman" was informed about consequences, since January, but he has taken the path of death.

As noted, "Laurie Garrett, the prophet of this pandemic, expects years of death and "collective rage," but her base assumption was a more rational approach would be taken. If school kids are unleashed this summer, along with the Summertime Blues' young adults, then the 2nd wave will come this summer....unless Rx is successful.
===============

Antibody blocks infection by the SARS-CoV-2 in cells, scientists discover
Date: May 4, 2020

Researchers report that they have identified a fully human monoclonal antibody that prevents the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) virus from infecting cultured cells. The discovery is an initial step towards developing a fully human antibody to treat or prevent the respiratory disease COVID-19 caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

[bronco]

look at the dashboard the state of Mass posts every day. Number of deaths per day declining for over 10 days now, hospitalization peaked on april 22 or so

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashb ... 0/download

I see, you are considering Massachusetts, while I am thinking of across the entire US.

volvolugnut

This is a car forum , no one asked you to solve a pandemic The USA is a federation of 50 states its a given wyoming doesnt want New yorks opinion nor vice versa .

Massachusetts is a tiny state with 70,000+ cases . We probably should stay locked down for another few weeks but why should other states with only a fraction of the cases we have? Alaska has 300 cases its winter for 9 months a year up there they need to get out of the house now.


Ireland got hit pretty hard and they are opening back up soon.
Italy got smacked and will be starting to reopen.
The UK is getting hit hard going their own different way and that is ok too.
Sweden is going a totally different route and who are we to judge? .
If you want to judge anyone , judge China , they have been lying to the rest of the world about this for 6 or 7 months now and thats not ending any time soon.

The US going to do its own thing , which might be 50 different things its going to be a bumpy ride.



6 months from now many might wish they went our way or they might be happier than we are. Hindsight is 20/20 and its easy for people at home with no authority or responsibility to say you are doing it wrong but they do that secure in knowing the buck is never going to stop on their desk .

Best bet , shut off whatever cable channels you are getting your daily propaganda from and get some fresh air.

The answers to this test will not be posted on MSNBC, or CNN or fox news either.

[Phainein7]

Hindsight is 20/20....The answers

George Santayana (1863—1952) said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

RE: "will not be posted on MSNBC, or CNN or fox news either."

My sources come from many different news/etc sources...last cited came via scientific source; don't put all of your eggs in one basket. From these, I can conclude there will be a 2nd wave this summer if summer activities are allowed to happen...unless a good Rx can be deployed.

[bronco]

Hindsight is 20/20....The answers

George Santayana (1863—1952) said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

RE: "will not be posted on MSNBC, or CNN or fox news either."

My sources come from many different news/etc sources...last cited came via scientific source; don't put all of your eggs in one basket. From these, I can conclude there will be a 2nd wave this summer if summer activities are allowed to happen...unless a good Rx can be deployed.

I think that individuals in general will continue to social distance. That is still going to work. There are those that in the midst of this who were throwing corona parties , that will still happen too.

I prefer to be an optimist so I see the charts posted above as encouraging.