Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Idaho (0.293) with 4645 cases, North Dakota (0.179) with 3362 cases, Oklahoma (0.174) with 11,510 cases, Montana (0.147) with 766 cases, and North Carolina (0.146) with 56,955 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Idaho has been in top 5 for 9 of last 11 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 for 19 of last 26 days. Montana has been in top 5 for 12 of last 18 days. Montana has few cases,

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas and Vermont were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Hawaii, North Carolina, North Dakota, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0300 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0285. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the highest growth rate since May 7.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

I have created eight new graphs with about 6 or 7 states in each showing growth rate from April 5 to June 24. There are some interesting changes from two weeks ago. This data used 5 day moving averages to smooth some of the noise. These graphs are a bit busy with all the lines together. Note that the vertical scale changes for each graph. I will give some commentary for each. If you want to see detail of an individual state, I will try to accommodate.

All the states and territories started in early April at high growth rate. A possible explanation is most areas were just starting response with social distancing and other measures. Over the weeks, most states have a downward trend, sort of a glide path as we reduced the spreading rate. Some states had initial reductions and then stayed about the same rate to the present. Other states, had initial drops and are now rising again. Others show no clear trend, but rise and fall randomly. Note that most states started reopening in late April and early May.

The first graph is Alabama to Colorado. Most states are on a nice glide path to low rates. Alabama was fairly low until late in May and then rose to near early April level. In the past week Alabama has fallen again. Alaska spiked high in early June , but has now fallen to lower levels. Arkansas has had several spikes to high rates recently and lately fallen off. Arizona is in the news lately, but the growth rate is fairly moderate compared to some other states. California has relatively low growth rate, but has risen in the past week.

The second graph is Connecticut to Georgia. This group looks good with a general downward slope. Florida is another state in the news lately. It has a rising growth rate, but looks good compared to some other states. It has continued an upward trend in the past week.

The third graph is Hawaii to Kentucky. Hawaii looked very good until late May. Now the Hawaii growth rate is high and rising. They do not have a lot of cases, but numbers are growing. The past week has declining growth rate numbers, but lots of variability. Idaho is another state that looked good until late May and now has rising growth rate. Indiana is another state that rose in early June, but has fallen in the last week. Kansas has shown an increase in the past couple weeks.

The fourth graph is Louisiana to Mississippi. Massachusetts, Michigan, and Maryland all look good with a downward trend, except Michigan has risen in the last week. Louisiana, Mississippi, and Maine bump along at the same moderate level with little improvement. However, Louisiana and Mississippi have risen sharply the last couple days. Minnesota has higher growth rate than most states, but should get credit for improvement from their high growth rates during all of May. Minnesota made the Top Five list most of May.

The fifth graph is Missouri to New Mexico. Montana is the state with the highest growth rate in this group. It also has the lowest number of cases at 614. A change in new cases by one or two make large changes in the rate. Nevada continues to rise since the start of June. The other states here are on a glide path downward.

The sixth graph is New York to Pennsylvania. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania all have good downward slopes with some increase in the last week. Oregon looked good until late May and has risen this month but declined the last week. North Carolina and North Dakota bounce along with wide swings and moderate growth rate. Oklahoma has never had low growth rates and has climbed to higher levels the first weeks of June and then fallen the last few days. Current Oklahoma growth rates are near early April rates. Oklahoma is one of the few states that never had stay home recommendations other than for people over sixty.

The seventh graph is Puerto Rico to Texas. Rhode Island and Puerto Rico look fairly good in this graph. The other states bounce along at a moderate growth rate without improvement. South Carolina and Texas have seen an increasing growth rate since late May.

The eighth graph is Utah to Wyoming. Washington and Virginia look relatively good in this graph. Vermont has dropped sharply then risen in the past two weeks after rising since early May. Wyoming rose in the first two weeks of June to a level equal to early May. The other states in this graph bump along at moderate growth rates without improving.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.667) with 80 cases, Idaho (0.233) with 4865 cases, Montana (0.213) with 803 cases, Mississippi (0.211) with 24,516 cases, and Wyoming (0.149) with 1326 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Idaho has been in top 5 for 10 of last 12 days. Montana has been in top 5 for 13 of last 19 days. US Virgin Islands and Montana have few cases,

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam and Maine were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, US Virgin Islands, West Virginia and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0309 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0300. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the highest growth rate since May 2 when the number was 0.0329.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.320) with 247 cases, Idaho (0.266) with 5148 cases, Minnesota (0.174) with 34,616 cases, Oklahoma (0.129) with 13,343 cases, and Louisiana (0.124) with 54,804 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Idaho has been in top 5 for 11 of last 13 days. Guam has few cases,

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Florida, Kansas, Tennessee, US Military, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0357 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0309. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the highest growth rate since May 1 when the number was 0.0410. On June 7 to 9 the US growth rate was less than half yesterday at 0.0167/0.0168.

volvolugnut

[Cees Klumper]

The next two weeks will show whether the dramatic increase in confirmed cases across the US leads to a new spike in deaths, but it seems unrealistic to think it won't. Unless drastic measures, more effective ones than during the past months, are taken, the number of deaths per million could double, meaning 120,000 more deaths in the US.

It will be important to evaluate the significant differences in response, results and indirect societal impacts, different country governments have achieved, and particularly how and why. For example, despite massive lockdowns in both places, uneployment rates in Europe have barely increased while in the US they are at record highs.

This will be studied for decades.

[Sveedy]

Europeans plan for rainy days ie - they actually have a social safety net. We work without a net because we are just sooo exceptional.
Really feels like we are in a field chock full of folks running around in tin foil hats during an electrical storm. Now if we could just get them all to hold hands....

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Nevada (0.262) with 16,339 cases, North Dakota (0.146) with 3458 cases, Idaho (0.139) with 5319 cases, Minnesota (0.132) with 35,033 cases, and South Dakota (0.114) with 6626 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Idaho has been in top 5 for 12 of last 14 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0321 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0357. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Hawaii (0.193) with 899 cases, Nevada (0.163) with 17,160 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 35,549 cases, North Dakota (0.142) with 3495 cases, and Louisiana (0.123) with 56,258 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Hawaii has few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Delaware, and Hawaii were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0292 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0321. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Idaho (0.326) with 5752 cases, Montana (0.236) with 919 cases, North Dakota (0.159) with 3539 cases, Tennessee (0.158) with 42,297 cases, and Nevada (0.129) with 17,894 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Montana has few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, Rhode Island, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Idaho, Montana, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0316 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.0292. This is not population or case number weighted. Note that Idaho has near 10 times the growth rate as the US average. New York and New Jersey have growth rates about one tenth of the US average.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for June 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.750) with 84 cases, Idaho (0.230) with 6117 cases, Oklahoma (0.183) with 13,757 cases, Montana (0.167) with 967 cases, and Minnesota (0.140) with 36,303 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Montana and US Virgin Islands have few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Nebraska, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Puerto Rico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0321 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0316. This is not population or case number weighted. The highest 5 day moving average for Idaho (0.192) is 96 times the lowest 5 day moving average for New York (0.002).

volvolugnut