Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.218) with 31,285 cases, Minnesota (0.171) with 51,153 cases, Hawaii (0.148) with 1683 cases, North Dakota (0.145) with 5876 cases, and Alaska (0.124) with 2524 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 25 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 26 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 25 days. Hawaii has been top state for four days in a row.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. District of Columbia was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Maine, Maryland, Montana, and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0267 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0325. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the lowest US growth rate since July 8 when it was .0249. This may be the start of a downward trend, but I am not optimistic.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.230) with 32,686 cases, Minnesota (0.127) with 51,806 cases, Arkansas (0.125) with 39,447 cases, North Dakota (0.107) with 5986 cases, and Guam (0.102) with 346 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Oklahoma and North Dakota have been in top 5 list for 18 of last 26 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 27 days. Guam has few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Kansas, Rhode Island, and US military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, New Jersey, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0289 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0267. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.157) with 33,775 cases, North Dakota (0.147) with 6141 cases, New Hampshire (0.145) with 6500 cases, Wyoming (0.119) with 2589 cases, and Arkansas (0.110) with 40,181 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Oklahoma and North Dakota have been in top 5 list for 19 of last 27 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. New Hampshire was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Rhode Island, US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0306 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0289. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

I have created eight new graphs with about 6 or 7 states in each showing growth rate from April 5 to July 28. There are some interesting changes from two weeks ago. This data used 5 day moving averages to smooth some of the noise. These graphs are a bit busy with all the lines together. Note that the vertical scale changes for each graph. I will give some commentary for each. If you want to see detail of an individual state, I will try to accommodate.

All the states and territories started in early April at high growth rate. A possible explanation is most areas were just starting response with social distancing and other measures. Over the weeks, most states have a downward trend, sort of a glide path as we reduced the spreading rate. Some states had initial reductions and then stayed about the same rate to the present. Other states, had initial drops and are now rising again. Others show no clear trend, but rise and fall randomly. Note that most states started reopening in late April and early May. In the last several weeks, many states have started to restrict some activities again.

Here are some background comments on growth rates for your consideration. The growth rate is the rate of increase in active cases. The current day new case number is divided by the previous day number of active cases. A growth rate of 0.05, if maintained, will double the number of active cases in two weeks. A growth rate of 0.10 will double active cases in 7 days. Active cases will double in 5 days for a growth rate of 0.15. The best states have consistent growth rates below 0.005 for doubling active cases in about 140 days. Two very good states are New York and New Jersey.

Another consideration is the number of active cases in the state. There is dramatic differences between the states. California and Florida have replaced New York as the states the most cases (near 475,000 total cases). Texas is very close to also exceeding New York in total number of cases. A few smaller, mostly rural states have only a couple thousand total cases.

There is an interesting new trend in the last weeks. The states that were doing the best (New York, New Jersey, Maryland and a few other north eastern states, have started trending upward. Meanwhile, the worst growth rate states like Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and North Dakota have improving growth rate numbers. Overall, the US states growth rate average has doubled in the last several weeks.

The first graph is Alabama to Colorado. Most states are on a nice glide path to low rates. Alabama was fairly low until late in May and then rose to near early April level. In the past week Alabama has decreased again. Alaska spiked high in early June, declined for a few weeks but now has fairly constant, moderate levels. Arkansas has had several spikes to high rates recently and lately fallen off only to rise again and stay a higher levels. Arizona is in the news lately, but the growth rate is fairly moderate and falling compared to some other states. California had relatively low growth rate early, but has been near constant at moderate level in the past weeks. Colorado looked very good until a couple weeks ago when the growth rate started to rise.

The second graph is Connecticut to Georgia. This group looked like a model for good response until June with a general downward slope. Since early June, many in this group have performed poorly. Florida is another state in the news lately. In the last several weeks, Florida has a falling growth rate. Delaware and Georgia were also rising in early July, but have leveled off lately. The District of Columbia looked very good until a week ago and had now risen sharply.

The third graph is Hawaii to Kentucky. Hawaii looked very good until late May. They do not have a lot of cases, but numbers are growing. The past week has rising growth rate numbers back up to the levels of June. Idaho is another state that looked good until late May and then had rising growth rate. Idaho rates have continued to drop and are now fairly low. Kansas, Iowa and Indiana have shown an increase in early July, but have declined the past couple weeks. Illinois has increasing growth rate the last couple weeks, after reaching very low levels in mid June.

The fourth graph is Louisiana to Mississippi. Louisiana has fallen during July after reaching fairly high levels in June. Michigan and Massachusetts have been steady at moderately levels the last several weeks. Mississippi and Maine bumped along at the same moderate level with little improvement in the last few weeks. Minnesota has had higher growth rate than most states for many weeks, and has continue poor performance during July. Maryland had a great glide path until early July and has since increased steadily, but still at low levels.

The fifth graph is Missouri to New Mexico. Montana is the state with the highest growth rate in this group. It also has the lowest number of cases at 3475. Montana has improved considerably in July. Nevada rose in early July, but has since fallen to moderate levels. Montana and Nevada have growth rates that predict doubling cases in about one to two weeks. The other states here were on a glide path downward until July when they started trending upward. New Hampshire growth rate has increase sharply in the last week.

The sixth graph is New York to Pennsylvania. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania all had good downward slopes until late June, then started to increase in the last month. New York is now trending upward slightly. Oregon looked good until late May, rose during June and declined in July to moderate levels. North Carolina bounces along with wide swings and moderate growth rate. Ohio has climbed to moderate growth rates this month, but has fallen slightly in the last couple weeks. In the last several weeks, North Dakota has increased in rate to high levels. Oklahoma has never had low growth rates and has climbed to higher levels the first weeks of June and then fell, only to increase again the last several weeks. Current Oklahoma and North Dakota growth rates are near early April rates and indicate a doubling of active cases in about one week. Oklahoma is one of the few states that never had stay home recommendations other than for people over sixty.

The seventh graph is Puerto Rico to Texas. None of the states look particularly bad or good in this graph. South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas have seen an falling growth rate since late June. South Dakota and Puerto Rico have a slow increasing trend the last few weeks.

The eighth graph is Utah to Wyoming. Washington and Virginia look relatively good lately. Virginia, like a few other eastern states, has a good long term trend but an increase in the last few weeks. Utah and Vermont have dropped recently to a moderate growth rate. West Virginia, Wyoming and Wisconsin have declined some the last few weeks, but still have relatively high growth rates.

I hope some find this information interesting.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Hawaii (0.205) with 1865 cases, South Dakota (0.166) with 8641 cases, Montana (0.152) with 3676 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 52,947 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.132) with 385 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 29 days. US Virgin Islands has few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Military was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas and South Dakota were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0310 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0306. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Hawaii (0.199) with 1989 cases, Oklahoma (0.166) with 35,740 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 53,692 cases, Arkansas (0.120) with 41,759 cases, and Wisconsin (0.109) with 52,108 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Hawaii has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 8 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 29 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 30 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Iowa was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0316 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0310. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for July 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.259) with 406 cases, Hawaii (0.166) with 2111 cases, North Dakota (0.165) with 6469 cases, Minnesota (0.151) with 54,463 cases, and West Virginia 0.137) with 6642 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Hawaii has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 9 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 30 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 31 days. US Virgin Islands has few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands and Vermont were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas, West Virginia, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0323 for yesterday, up slightly from previous day of 0.0316. The US average growth rate has risen the last 6 days. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for August 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.250) with 421 cases, Oklahoma (0.184) with 37,731 cases, Minnesota (0.131) with 55,188 cases, North Dakota (0.123) with 6602 cases, and South Dakota (0.118) with 8867 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 31 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 31 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 32 days. US Virgin Islands has few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Puerto Rico was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). US Virgin Islands, Vermont, Veterans Affairs, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0263 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0323. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for August 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.140) with 55,947 cases, South Dakota (0.096) with 8955 cases, Arkansas (0.095) with 43,810 cases, Wisconsin (0.094) with 54,924 cases, and Louisiana (0.091) with 119,747 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 5 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 7 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 33 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0219 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0263. This is not population or case number weighted. This drop is likely a weekend effect where cases and deaths drop each weekend.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for August 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.250) with 439 cases, Hawaii (0.223) with 2448 cases, Guam (0.211) with 368 cases, Arkansas (0.116) with 44,597 cases, and North Dakota (0.116) with 6785 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 32 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 8 days. Hawaii has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 11 days. US Virgin Islands and Guam have few cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, Kansas, Rhode Island, Veterans Affairs, and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Hawaii, US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0214 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0219. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut