Coronavirus Thread

[j-dawg]

I have attached a graph for the US average growth rate for the period of March 3 to August 22, 2020. After very high growth rates early in March, rates declined gradually to a low rate. Then, from late June, growth rates doubled by the middle of July. In recent weeks the US average growth rate has declined again to the early June levels.

Since this is an average for all of the US, some states are still much higher than the average. The worst states have growth rates about 10 times the US average, while the best performing states have growth rates about a third of the US average.


volvolugnut

This is pretty eye-opening. That small uptrend later in the plot shows the huge spike we had over June and July.

When you have as many cases as we do now, it doesn't take a lot of relaxation to cause a big spike in absolute case count. Take care out there.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for August 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.137) with 1395 cases, Minnesota (0.105) with 75,864 cases, New Hampshire (0.095) with 7275 cases, Oklahoma (0.086) with 58,733 cases, and Kansas (0.084) with 43,175 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 26 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Kansas, Rhode Island, and US military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, Missouri, and New Jersey were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0151 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0134. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.135) with 76,584 cases, West Virginia (0.127) with 10,507 cases, New Hampshire (0.096) with 7297 cases, South Dakota (0.088) with 13,749 cases, and Ohio (0.086) with 124,687 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 11 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). New York was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise. New York has not appeared in the early warning growth list for a very long time. Yesterday New York ranked number 25 in state growth rate. Between April and the middle of August, New York did not rank above single digits.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0163 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0151. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.122) with 62,112 cases, Minnesota (0.122) with 77,085 cases, North Dakota (0.119) with 12,267 cases, Montana (0.094) with 7691 cases, and South Dakota (0.092) with 14,003 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 15 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 28 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 44 of last 63 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 12 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Navajo Nation was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas, Mississippi, Wyoming, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0160 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0163. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.193) with 63,081 cases, Minnesota (0.183) with 78,123 cases, New Hampshire (0.170) with 7347 cases, North Dakota (0.158) with 12,629 cases, and South Dakota (0.116) with 14,337 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 16 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 29 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 64 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 13 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Arizona and Massachusetts were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Arkansas, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0174 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0160. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.205) with 64,175 cases, Wisconsin (0.202) with 79,354 cases, North Dakota (0.142) with 12,973 cases, Minnesota (0.139) with 78,966 cases, and Oklahoma (0.116) with 62,040 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 17 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 65 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 30 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Illinois was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Arkansas, South Carolina, US Virgin Islands, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0206 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0174. This is not population or case number weighted. The new cases and growth rate yesterday were the highest since August 15.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.268) with 7424 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.202) with 1167 cases, North Dakota (0.144) with 13,334 cases, Minnesota (0.140) with 79,880 cases, and Oklahoma (0.126) with 63,187 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 6 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 66 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 31 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Tennessee and US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Delaware, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0164 for yesterday, down slightly from previous day of 0.0206. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.156) with 1181 cases, Arkansas (0.118) with 65,377 cases, North Dakota (0.117) with 13,631 cases, Louisiana (0.116) with 152,868 cases, and Wisconsin (0.112) with 81,193 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 19 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 67 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana, Tennessee and US Virgin Islands were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0123 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0164. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the lowest US average growth rate ever recorded. The next lowest was 0.0150 on Sunday August 16, 2020. This may be a 'weekend effect' low number.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.117) with 7476 cases, Minnesota (0.103) with 81,225 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.095) with 1190 cases, Kansas (0.076) with 47,380 cases, and Wisconsin (0.070) with 81,760 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 8 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 33 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas and Puerto Rico were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Michigan was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00977 for yesterday, down sharply from previous day of 0.0123. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the lowest US average growth rate ever recorded. This may be a 'holiday weekend effect' low number.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

I am posting this information in the afternoon now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the cooler morning and indoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for September 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.124) with 4103 cases, Guam (0.109) with 1713 cases, Wisconsin (0.088) with 82,477 cases, Oklahoma (0.084) with 65,053 cases, and New Hampshire (0.076) with 7494 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 9 days.

Connecticut, Guam, Rhode Island, Wyoming, and Veterans Affairs did not report the day before and resulted in higher numbers for yesterday.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Wyoming, and Veterans Affairs were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning of increasing cases beyond day to day noise.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0113 for yesterday, up sharply from previous day of 0.00977. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut