Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 12 Nov 2020, 08:13

volvolugnut wrote: ↑11 Nov 2020, 09:33 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Kansas (0.181) with 110,521 cases, Vermont (0.156) with 2535 cases, Arkansas (0.152) with 126,197 cases, Minnesota (0.146) with 194,570 cases, and West Virginia (0.122) with 30,201 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Kansas has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 15 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 85 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 75 of last 98 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, Nebraska, and Rhode Island were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Nebraska had not reported for several days. District of Columbia, Mississippi, and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0384 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0392. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday's new case count was the highest ever at 142,808. The previous high was 142,212 on the day before.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 13 Nov 2020, 13:22

volvolugnut wrote: ↑12 Nov 2020, 08:13 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.381) with 1426 cases, Vermont (0.219) with 2651 cases, Minnesota (0.209) with 201,795 cases, Louisiana (0.193) with 191,889 cases, and North Dakota (0.154) with 59,173 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 28 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 76 of last 99 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 33 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 91 of last 134 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana, Rhode Island, US Virgin Islands, Vermont, Washington, Navajo Nation, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Louisiana, US Virgin Islands, Navajo Nation, and Federal Prisons did not report cases the day before. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0424 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0384. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday's new case count was the highest ever at 161,541. The previous high was 142,808 on the day before. This is the third consecutive day of new record number of cases.

Yesterdays growth rate was the highest since July 10 when the rate was 0.0433.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 14 Nov 2020, 07:56

volvolugnut wrote: ↑13 Nov 2020, 13:22 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 13, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.361) with 201,981 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.195) with 1434 cases, New Hampshire (0.182) with 13,929 cases, Kansas (0.162) with 116,858 cases, and Arkansas (0.159) with 130,318 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 34 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 29 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 45 days. Kansas has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 17 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 87 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). US Military did not report cases the day before. Delaware and Kansas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0471 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0424. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday's new case count was the highest ever at 183,527. The previous high was 161,541 on the day before. This is the fourth consecutive day of new record number of cases.

Yesterday's growth rate was the highest since April 24 when the rate was 0.0521.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 14 Nov 2020, 11:30

volvolugnut wrote: ↑12 Nov 2020, 08:13 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling shows no indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase. Perhaps when changing recommendations for controlling the virus begin to have an impact, we will see a flattening of the doubling lines. For now, expect to see the number of new cases double about every 20 to 25 days.

There is an error in my logic. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I am considering how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 15 Nov 2020, 08:46

volvolugnut wrote: ↑14 Nov 2020, 07:56 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 14, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.216) with 62,872 cases, Minnesota (0.204) with 216,028 cases, Tennessee (0.150) with 305,120 cases, Vermont (0.141) with 2843 cases, and New Hampshire (0.139) with 14,311 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 92 of last 136 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 77 of last 101 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 50 days. Vermont has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 4 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 46 days.

Oregon and Puerto Rico have stopped daily reporting of active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Navajo Nation was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Navajo Nation did not report cases the day before. North Dakota was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0391 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0471. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 16 Nov 2020, 08:05

volvolugnut wrote: ↑15 Nov 2020, 08:46 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Tennessee (0.177) with 310,937 cases, Minnesota (0.165) with 223,581 cases, Oklahoma (0.155) with 154,128 cases, Louisiana (0.128) with 204,513 cases, and New Hampshire (0.121) with 14,671 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 51 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 78 of last 102 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 36 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 38 of last 47 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0341 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0391. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 17 Nov 2020, 07:31

volvolugnut wrote: ↑16 Nov 2020, 08:05 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.390) with 1450 cases, Tennessee (0.242) with 318,888 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 231,018 cases, Kansas (0.162) with 124,065 cases, and Vermont (0.152) with 3008 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 32 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 52 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 79 of last 103 days. Kansas has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 20 days. Vermont has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 6 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Kansas, Nebraska, US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Tennessee, Virginia, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, Kansas, US Virgin Islands, Federal Prisons, and US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0389 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0341. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 18 Nov 2020, 07:56

volvolugnut wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 07:31 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 17, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.289) with 1463 cases, Wyoming (0.124) with 24,453 cases, Minnesota (0.122) with 236,949 cases, Maine (0.116) with 9363 cases, and Louisiana (0.115) with 207,685 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 33 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 64 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 80 of last 104 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 38 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Georgia, Rhode Island, and US Virgin Islands were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0369 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0389. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 19 Nov 2020, 07:34

volvolugnut wrote: ↑18 Nov 2020, 07:56 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 18, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.126) with 67,230 cases, New Hampshire (0.126) with 15,749 cases, Kansas (0.122) with 130,211 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.115) with 1469 cases, and Tennessee (0.111) with 325,201 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 93 of last 140 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 50 days. Kansas has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 22 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 34 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 54 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, Rhode Island, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. Mississippi, and New Mexico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0399 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0369. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 20 Nov 2020, 09:46

volvolugnut wrote: ↑19 Nov 2020, 07:34 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for November 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.224) with 1482 cases, Minnesota (0.174) with 249,906 cases, Vermont (0.154) with 3310 cases, New Hampshire (0.140) with 16,277 cases, and North Dakota (0.139) with 68,612 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 35 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 81 of last 106 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 51 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 94 of last 141 days.

Oregon did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Hawaii, Nebraska, and New Mexico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0432 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0399. This is not population or case number weighted.

Yesterday's total of new cases was 192,186. This is the highest ever reported and the previous high was 183,527 on November 13, 2020.

volvolugnut

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