Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 16 Dec 2020, 08:14

volvolugnut wrote: ↑15 Dec 2020, 08:42 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.134) with 1850 cases, Tennessee (0.127) with 472,875 cases, Arkansas (0.103) with 189,198 cases, New Hampshire (0.099) with 32,545 cases, and Wyoming (0.097) with 40,064 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 61 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 80 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 118 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 77 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 92 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Federal Prisons did not report the previous day. Nebraska and Rhode Island were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0298 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0296. This is not population or case number weighted.

We have several days of new case counts with little change. This is much better than the last couple weeks which had large increases most days.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 17 Dec 2020, 08:54

volvolugnut wrote: ↑16 Dec 2020, 08:14 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Tennessee (0.182) with 484,285 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.169) with 1878 cases, New Hampshire (0.137) with 33,433 cases, Arkansas (0.111) with 191,504 cases, and Wyoming (0.104) with 40,310 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 38 of last 81 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 62 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 60 of last 78 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 119 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 30 of last 93 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. California, Iowa, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and US Virgin Islands were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0364 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0298. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 18 Dec 2020, 07:27

volvolugnut wrote: ↑17 Dec 2020, 08:54 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 17, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.146) with 194,543 cases, Tennessee (0.134) with 493,230 cases, North Dakota (0.128) with 89,063 cases, New Hampshire (0.124) with 34,264 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.117) with 1900 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 120 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 82 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 107 of last 169 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 61 of last 79 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 63 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Montana, Puerto Rico, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0335 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0364. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 19 Dec 2020, 07:53

volvolugnut wrote: ↑18 Dec 2020, 07:27 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 18, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.335) with 41,359 cases, North Dakota (0.166) with 89,557 cases, Tennessee (0.152) with 503,651 cases, Arkansas (0.133) with 197,421 cases, and Oklahoma (0.112) with 251,760 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 95 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 108 of last 170 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 83 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 121 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 28 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, Puerto Rico, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). North Dakota, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Kansas and US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0363 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0335. This is not population or case number weighted.

The new cases count was the highest every reported yesterday at 254,680. The previous high was 248,686 reported on December 16, 2020. There have been five new case count highs this month.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 20 Dec 2020, 08:33

volvolugnut wrote: ↑19 Dec 2020, 07:53 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.128) with 255,868 cases, Arkansas (0.120) with 200,114 cases, Minnesota (0.105) with 394,635 cases, New Hampshire (0.095) with 35,609 cases, and Wisconsin (0.094) with 455,351 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 29 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 60 of last 122 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 100 of last 136 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 62 of last 81 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0264 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0363. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 20 Dec 2020, 09:34

volvolugnut wrote: ↑13 Dec 2020, 11:41 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Dec 13 to 19). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week while Days to Double graphs shows mostly steady to increasing in the past week. This is still encouraging after several weeks of extreme growth of new cases. This week there are many new cases, but the weeks average was only slightly greater than last week.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 Dec 2020, 10:04

volvolugnut wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020, 08:33 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 20, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.150) with 260,838 cases, New Hampshire (0.139) with 36,542 cases, Tennessee (0.134) with 519,687 cases, Minnesota (0.111) with 397,319 cases, and North Dakota (0.087) with 90,039 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 30 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 82 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 85 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 101 of last 137 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 109 of last 172 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0254 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0264. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 22 Dec 2020, 08:30

volvolugnut wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020, 10:04 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.204) with 42,118 cases, Tennessee (0.126) with 529,578 cases, New Hampshire (0.122) with 37,388 cases, Minnesota (0.089) with 399,311 cases, and Oklahoma (0.073) with 263,434 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 32 of last 98 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 86 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 83 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 102 of last 138 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 31 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas, Missouri, and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, US Military, Federal Prisons, Kansas, and Missouri did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0273 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0254. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 23 Dec 2020, 08:39

volvolugnut wrote: ↑22 Dec 2020, 08:30 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.134) with 42,379 cases, North Dakota (0.125) with 90,453 cases, New Hampshire (0.093) with 38,008 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.089) with 1934 cases, and Arkansas (0.087) with 205,048 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 33 of last 99 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 110 of last 174 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 84 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 68 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 61 of last 125 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Rhode Island, US Virgin Islands, and Veterans Affairs were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Virgin Islands and Veterans Affairs did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0272 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0273. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 24 Dec 2020, 08:29

volvolugnut wrote: ↑23 Dec 2020, 08:39 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.152) with 42,664 cases, Arkansas (0.131) with 207,941 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.127) with 1950 cases, North Dakota (0.111) with 90,723 cases, and Oklahoma (0.104) with 269,276 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 100 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 62 of last 126 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 38 of last 69 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 111 of last 175 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 33 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, US Virgin Islands, and Veterans Affairs were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Iowa, Maine, Rhode Island, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0314 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0272. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

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