Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.142) with 211,145 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.136) with 1967 cases, Minnesota (0.105) with 404,403 cases, North Dakota (0.094) with 90,948 cases, and Oklahoma (0.092) with 272,553 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 127 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 70 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 103 of last 141 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 112 of last 176 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 34 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Navajo Nation was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). New Mexico, US Virgin Islands, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0258 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0314. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.094) with 1979 cases, Arkansas (0.091) with 213,267 cases, West Virginia (0.070) with 78,836 cases, Wisconsin (0.045) with 467,899 cases, and Mississippi (0.035) with 204,178 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 71 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 128 days.

There were only 25 states reporting yesterday and low numbers from those who did report.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0131 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0258. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.237) with 43,146 cases, North Dakota (0.175) with 91,355 cases, New Hampshire (0.175) with 39,933 cases, Minnesota (0.119) with 406,545 cases, and Oklahoma (0.112) with 276,508 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 103 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 113 of last 178 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 66 of last 88 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 104 of last 143 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 36 days.

There were 7 states not reporting yesterday.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. New Hampshire, Puerto Rico, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Washington, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). New Hampshire, Wyoming, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Navajo Nation did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0211 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0131. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.143) with 40,809 cases, Minnesota (0.135) with 409,061 cases, Louisiana (0.077) with 299,722 cases, Wisconsin (0.075) with 470,818 cases, and Oklahoma (0.073) with 279,139 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 67 of last 89 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 105 of last 144 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 78 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 37 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Colombia, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Puerto Rico, and South Carolina were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Louisiana did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0166 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0211. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Dec 20 to 26). The New Case Slope graph shows an strong decrease in the past week while Days to Double graph shows increasing in the past week. This is still encouraging after several weeks of extreme growth of new cases. I am concerned that this past week was not a true representation of reality and reports this week will show a great increase in new cases. It could be that the past holiday week is similar to the 'weekend effect' where new case reports decline every weekend. During the week of Thanksgiving there was also a decline in reported new cases and large increase in following days.

Alternately, we could hope that everyone is being very careful and virus spread is slowing.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.340) with 43,704 cases, New Hampshire (0.123) with 41,670 cases, Oklahoma (0.102) with 282,587 cases, Kansas (0.085) with 218,104 cases, and Arkansas (0.077) with 216,528 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 105 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 68 of last 90 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 38 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 131 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, Kansas, Michigan, Rhode Island, Wyoming, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas, and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, Kansas, Michigan, Rhode Island, US Military, Federal Prisons, and Missouri did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0241 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0166. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.189) with 2004 cases, New Hampshire (0.186) with 42,697 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 43,923 cases, North Dakota (0.145) with 91,831 cases, and Arkansas (0.130) with 219,246 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 75 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 69 of last 91 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 106 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 114 of last 181 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 66 of last 132 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Rhode Island, US Virgin Islands, and Utah were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Virgin Islands did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0252 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0241. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.218) with 92,202 cases, Montana (0.162) with 81,300 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 413,107 cases, Wyoming (0.151) with 44,133 cases, and Arkansas (0.150) with 222,430 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 115 of last 182 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 106 of last 147 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 107 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 67 of last 133 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Missouri and US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0302 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0252. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for December 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.188) with 2031 cases, Minnesota (0.181) with 415,302 cases, Wyoming (0.180) with 44,409 cases, North Dakota (0.161) with 92,495 cases, and Wisconsin (0.137) with 481,102 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 77 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 108 of last 148 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 38 of last 108 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 116 of last 183 days. Wisconsin has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 7 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0290 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0302. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for January 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.194) with 229,442 cases, West Virginia (0.102) with 87,820 cases, Wisconsin (0.066) with 483,007 cases, Kansas (0.061) with 229,556 cases, and Guam (0.061) with 7326 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 68 of last 135 days. Wisconsin has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 8 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Hawaii, Missouri, West Virginia, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Missouri did nor report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0208 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0290. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut