Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for January 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.210) with 92,891 cases, Minnesota (0.197) with 417,832 cases, New Hampshire (0.195) with 45,184 cases, Oklahoma (0.157) with 296,055 cases, and Tennessee (0.120) with 604,132 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 117 of last 185 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 109 of last 150 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 70 of last 95 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 43 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 98 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee did nor report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0287 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0208. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


New COVID-19 cases are growing in the US. Nearly every week brings new highs in the number of cases. The growth rates which I have tracked for months are rising again to levels similar to July or even April.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Dec 27 to Jan 2). The New Case Slope graph shows a continuing decrease in the past week while Days to Double graph shows increasing in the past week except for the 7 day trend. This continues to look encouraging after several weeks of extreme growth of new cases. I am somewhat concerned that the past two weeks may not a true representation of reality and reports this week will show a great increase in new cases. It could be that the past two holiday weeks are similar to the 'weekend effect' where new case reports decline every weekend. During the week of Thanksgiving there was also a decline in reported new cases and large increase in following days.

Alternately, we could hope that everyone is being very careful and virus spread is slowing.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for January 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.275) with 44,875 cases, New Hampshire (0.196) with 46,450 cases, Minnesota (0.191) with 420,544 cases, Louisiana (0.131) with 321,058 cases, and South Dakota (0.123) with 100,531 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 111 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 71 of last 96 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 110 of last 151 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 85 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Louisiana did nor report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0237 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0287. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for January 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.272) with 45,247 cases, Minnesota (0.270) with 423,688 cases, New Hampshire (0.144) with 47,328 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.143) with 2055 cases, and Guam (0.108) with 7344 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 112 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 111 of last 152 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 72 of last 97 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 81 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Rhode Island, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kentucky, Minnesota, US Virgin Islands, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Rhode Island, US Military, and Federal Prisons did nor report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0229 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0237. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for January 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.301) with 2083 cases, Wyoming (0.232) with 45,569 cases, Arkansas (0.178) with 238,888 cases, Montana (0.141) with 83,378 cases, and North Dakota (0.133) with 93,494 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 44 of last 82 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 113 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 69 of last 139 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 118 of last 188 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Idaho, Rhode Island, US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Florida, Guam, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Wisconsin were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0275 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0229. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for January 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.208) with 45,890 cases, Guam (0.206) with 7378 cases, North Dakota (0.179) with 93,832 cases, Minnesota (0.178) with 427,587 cases, and Arkansas (0.152) with 242,593 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 114 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 119 of last 189 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 112 of last 154 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 70 of last 140 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Navajo Nation were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Missouri, Nebraska, and US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0312 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0275. The growth rate yesterday was the highest since December 23, 2020 when it was 0.0314. This is not population or case number weighted.

The number of new cases yesterday was the highest ever reported at 260,973. The previous high was 254,680 on December 18, 2020.

The number of new deaths yesterday was the highest ever reported at 4100. The previous high was 3538 on December 16, 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.221) with 2106 cases, North Dakota (0.163) with 94,156 cases, Wyoming (0.156) with 46,168 cases, Montana (0.140) with 84,750 cases, and Wisconsin (0.135) with 498,538 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 84 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 120 of last 190 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 115 days. Wisconsin has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 14 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Missouri was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Hawaii, Indiana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Tennessee, US Virgin Islands, and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Virgin Islands did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0330 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0312. This is not population or case number weighted.

The number of new cases yesterday was the highest ever reported at 279,154. The previous high was 260,973 on January 6.

The number of new deaths yesterday was the highest ever reported at 4207. The previous high was 4100 on January 6.

volvolugnut

[MoVolvos]

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Have not visited this thread for sometime so don't know if anyone posted this information?

Wiki - "Ivermectin was discovered in 1975 and came into medical use in 1981... Half of the 2015 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded jointly to Campbell and Ōmura for discovering Ivermectin,".












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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.277) with 46,647 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.189) with 2130 cases, Montana (0.166) with 85,568 cases, Minnesota (0.154) with 431,944 cases, and Oklahoma (0.150) with 320,586 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 44 of last 116 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 85 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 10 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 113 of last 156 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 49 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Puerto Rico and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Oklahoma was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0356 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0330. This is not population or case number weighted.

The number of new cases yesterday was the highest ever reported at 306,449. The previous high was 279,154 on January 7.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 9, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.149) with 434,413 cases, Oklahoma (0.115) with 324,875 cases, North Carolina (0.107) with 614,355 cases, Arkansas (0.106) with 251,746 cases, and New Hampshire (0.106) with 50,871 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 114 of last 157 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 50 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 71 of last 143 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 73 of last 102 days.

Oregon, Delaware, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Veterans Affairs was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0283 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0356. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut