Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 28 Jan 2021, 08:37

volvolugnut wrote: ↑27 Jan 2021, 08:40 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.319) with 2373 cases, Wyoming (0.168) with 51,368 cases, North Dakota (0.153) with 97,160 cases, Arkansas (0.098) with 288,964 cases, and Oklahoma (0.088) with 379,110 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin islands has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 104 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 135 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 132 of last 209 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 80 of last 160 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 68 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Mississippi, Rhode Island, Wyoming, US Military, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0155 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0151. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 10 of the 11 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occured for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 29 Jan 2021, 08:38

volvolugnut wrote: ↑28 Jan 2021, 08:37 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.143) with 97,305 cases, Minnesota (0.140) with 458,633 cases, New Hampshire (0.133) with 64,258 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.124) with 2384 cases, and Arkansas (0.107) with 290,856 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 133 of last 210 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 127 of last 176 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 87 of last 121 days. US Virgin islands has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 105 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 81 of last 161 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Rhode Island and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0166 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0155. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 11 of the 12 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 30 Jan 2021, 08:00

volvolugnut wrote: ↑29 Jan 2021, 08:38 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.451) with 51,990 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.149) with 2398 cases, North Dakota (0.146) with 97,458 cases, Tennessee (0.136) with 722,491 cases, and Minnesota (0.113) with 459,747 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 137 days. US Virgin islands has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 106 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 134 of last 211 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 128 of last 177 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Missouri and Nebraska have stopped posting new case and new death numbers.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Wyoming was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0172 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0166. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 12 of the 13 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 31 Jan 2021, 09:03

volvolugnut wrote: ↑30 Jan 2021, 08:00 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.186) with 51,990 cases, Montana (0.138) with 93,762 cases, Arkansas (0.105) with 294,387 cases, Minnesota (0.105) with 460,819 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.099) with 2407 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 138 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 32 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 82 of last 163 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 129 of last 178 days. US Virgin islands has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 107 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0143 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0172. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 13 of the 14 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 31 Jan 2021, 12:17

volvolugnut wrote: ↑25 Jan 2021, 09:31 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Jan 24 to Jan 30). The New Case Slope graph shows a decrease in the past week and continues negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle. Meanwhile Days to Double graph shows a strong increasing trend for 7 day, 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double is similar to the period in early September of last year. There is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers continue to decrease.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 01 Feb 2021, 11:58

volvolugnut wrote: ↑31 Jan 2021, 09:03 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.147) with 51,912 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.140) with 2421 cases, Minnesota (0.101) with 461,807 cases, Oklahoma (0.100) with 389,472 cases, and Tennessee (0.091) with 727,861 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 60 of last 139 days. US Virgin islands has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 108 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 130 of last 179 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 30 of last 72 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Missouri and Nebraska were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Missouri and Nebraska did not report new cases the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0109 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0143. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 14 of the 15 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest since September 7, 2020 when it was .00997 and the lowest ever recorded. Do not be mislead that is now safe to resume all activities - continue to take precautions.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 02 Feb 2021, 08:13

volvolugnut wrote: ↑01 Feb 2021, 11:58 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.204) with 7608 cases, Wyoming (0.110) with 52,057 cases, Minnesota (0.077) with 462,528 cases, New Hampshire (0.074) with 66,058 cases, and Arkansas (0.071) with 296,494 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Guam has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 32 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 61 of last 140 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 131 of last 180 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 88 of last 125 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 83 of last 165 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, Missouri, Nebraska, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Puerto Rico was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, US Military, and Federal Prisons did not report new cases the previous day. This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0127 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0109. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 15 of the 16 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 03 Feb 2021, 08:25

volvolugnut wrote: ↑02 Feb 2021, 08:13 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.121) with 97,798 cases, Arkansas (0.090) with 298,004 cases, Montana (0.087) with 94,384 cases, New Hampshire (0.070) with 66,384 cases, and Minnesota (0.068) with 463,132 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 135 of last 215 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 84 of last 166 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 35 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 89 of last 126 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 132 of last 181 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Connecticut, Missouri, and Federal Prisons was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0117 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0127. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 16 of the 17 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 04 Feb 2021, 08:43

volvolugnut wrote: ↑03 Feb 2021, 08:25 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.156) with 97,936 cases, Wyoming (0.149) with 52,288 cases, Arkansas (0.148) with 300,430 cases, Montana (0.119) with 94,810 cases, and Guam (0.080) with 7618 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 136 of last 216 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 62 of last 142 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 85 of last 167 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 36 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 34 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Nebraska and Rhode Island were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Federal Prisons was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0116 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0117. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 17 of the 18 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 05 Feb 2021, 08:51

volvolugnut wrote: ↑04 Feb 2021, 08:43 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.182) with 465,176 cases, Wyoming (0.155) with 52,468 cases, Arkansas (0.149) with 302,899 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.143) with 2440 cases, and North Dakota (0.107) with 98,034 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 133 of last 183 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 143 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 86 of last 168 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 112 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 137 of last 217 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and US Virgin Islands were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This column is an early warning for high state growth rate.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0124 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0116. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday, January 17, 2021, 18 of the 19 days had growth rates below 0.020. The last date growth rates were this low was in early October 2020.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend. This last occurred for several weeks in September 2020. This is encouraging.

volvolugnut

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