Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 Feb 2021, 08:17

volvolugnut wrote: ↑20 Feb 2021, 08:24 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 20, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.129) with 73,161 cases, Minnesota (0.118) with 478,157 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.116) with 2575 cases, Montana (0.109) with 98,641 cases, and North Dakota (0.088) with 99,228 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 104 of last 144 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 147 of last 199 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 66 of last 128 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 53 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 146 of last 233 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Veterans Affairs was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas and Texas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00749 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00844. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 11 of the 14 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 Feb 2021, 14:21

volvolugnut wrote: ↑16 Feb 2021, 14:31 I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending February 20, 2021.
The top 5 states are South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, New Mexico, and Arizona. The bottom 5 states are Puerto Rico, Vermont, Oregon, Hawaii, and Maine.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 27.8 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 16.3 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 21.8 %.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 Feb 2021, 14:33

volvolugnut wrote: ↑14 Feb 2021, 11:59 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Feb 14 to Feb 20). The New Case Slope graph shows a slight decrease in the past week and continues negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle. Meanwhile Days to Double graph continues a strong increasing trend for 7 day, 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double is similar to the period in early September of last year but continues to exceed the September results.

There is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers continue to decrease, but are still high in absolute numbers.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 22 Feb 2021, 07:48

volvolugnut wrote: ↑21 Feb 2021, 08:17 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.147) with 53,795 cases, Minnesota (0.123) with 479,036 cases, Louisiana (0.118) with 424,176 cases, New Hampshire (0.082) with 73,413 cases, and South Dakota (0.070) with 111,304 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 66 of last 155 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 148 of last 200 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 105 of last 145 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00615 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00749. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 12 of the 15 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 23 Feb 2021, 08:34

volvolugnut wrote: ↑22 Feb 2021, 07:48 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.150) with 53,900 cases, Guam (0.113) with 7727 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.112) with 2589 cases, New Hampshire (0.086) with 73,665 cases, and Minnesota (0.078) with 479,591 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 67 of last 156 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 53 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 67 of last 130 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 106 of last 146 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 149 of last 201 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho, Missouri, Washington, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut and Idaho did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00638 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00615. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 13 of the 16 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 24 Feb 2021, 07:45

volvolugnut wrote: ↑23 Feb 2021, 08:34 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.169) with 316,593 cases, North Dakota (0.146) with 99,416 cases, South Dakota (0.110) with 111,546 cases, Montana (0.106) with 99,040 cases, and New Hampshire (0.089) with 73,923 cases,. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 91 of last 187 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 147 of last 236 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 56 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 107 of last 147 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Arkansas was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Louisiana, Michigan, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00772 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00638. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 14 of the 17 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 25 Feb 2021, 08:13

volvolugnut wrote: ↑24 Feb 2021, 07:45 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.420) with 2623 cases, North Dakota (0.166) with 99,531 cases, Arkansas (0.166) with 317,396 cases, South Dakota (0.135) with 111,808 cases, and New Hampshire (0.123) with 74,258 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 68 of last 132 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 148 of last 237 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 92 of last 188 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 14 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 108 of last 148 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Mississippi, Rhode Island, and US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00821 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00772. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 15 of the 18 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 26 Feb 2021, 08:50

volvolugnut wrote: ↑25 Feb 2021, 08:13 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.335) with 54,202 cases, Minnesota (0.155) with 481,831 cases, Arkansas (0.154) with 318,122 cases, Tennessee (0.138) with 770,940 cases, and North Dakota (0.128) with 99,621 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 68 of last 159 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 150 of last 204 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 93 of last 189 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 149 of last 238 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Mississippi and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, West Virginia, Veterans Affairs, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00849 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00821. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 16 of the 19 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have the beginning of a flat line trend with a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. The number of active cases have dropped 835, 927 since the peak on January 31, 2021 or 8.4%. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 27 Feb 2021, 08:14

volvolugnut wrote: ↑26 Feb 2021, 08:50 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.227) with 54,350 cases, Minnesota (0.168) with 482,978 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.129) with 2636 cases, North Dakota (0.127) with 99,711 cases, and New Hampshire (0.114) with 74,893 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 69 of last 160 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 151 of last 205 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 68 of last 134 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 150 of last 239 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 109 of last 150 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Military was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00886 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00849. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 17 of the 20 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 28 Feb 2021, 08:42

volvolugnut wrote: ↑27 Feb 2021, 08:14 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.124) with 319,195 cases, Montana (0.118) with 99,837 cases, Minnesota (0.111) with 483,790 cases, North Dakota (0.098) with 99,780 cases, and Tennessee (0.097) with 773,887 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 94 of last 191 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 60 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 152 of last 206 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 151 of last 240 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Missouri was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00708 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00886. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 18 of the 21 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

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