Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.143) with 430,100 cases, Minnesota (0.110) with 484,594 cases, New Hampshire (0.097) with 75,424 cases, Tennessee (0.081) with 775,004 cases, and South Dakota (0.070) with 112,427 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 153 of last 207 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 110 of last 152 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 4 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 18 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana and Puerto Rico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Louisiana did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00535 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00708. This is not population or case number weighted. Since Sunday February 7, 2021, 19 of the 22 days had growth rates below 0.010. A growth rate of 0.010 implies a doubling of new cases in 70 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

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[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending February 27, 2021.
The top 5 states are South Dakota, New Mexico, Arkansas, Vermont, and Arizona. The bottom 5 states are District of Columbia, Idaho, Puerto Rico, Maryland, and Virginia.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 28.9 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 16.7 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 23.7 %.

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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

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I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Feb 21 to Feb 27). The New Case Slope graph shows a large decrease in the past week and continues negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle except in the last month. Meanwhile Days to Double graph continues a strong increasing trend for 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double graph has a decreasing trend for 7 day line in the past week. The Days to Double is similar to the period in early September of last year but continues to exceed the September results.

There is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers continue to decrease, but are still high in absolute numbers.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.130) with 54,471 cases, Minnesota (0.088) with 485,230 cases, North Dakota (0.071) with 99,852 cases, New Hampshire (0.065) with 75,588 cases, and Tennessee (0.050) with 775,693 cases,. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 70 of last 163 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 154 of last 208 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 152 of last 242 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 111 of last 153 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 5 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). US Military was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut and US Military did not report the previous two days. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00588 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00535. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 12 of the 16 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.218) with 2670 cases, North Dakota (0.184) with 99,957 cases, Guam (0.119) with 7742 cases, Arkansas (0.103) with 322,949 cases, and Wyoming (0.101) with 54,527 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 69 of last 138 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 153 of last 243 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 61 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 95 of last 194 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 71 of last 164 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, US Virgin Islands, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Idaho, Michigan, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Rhode Island were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Virgin Islands did not report the previous two days. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00634 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00555. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 13 of the 17 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.225) with 2695 cases, North Dakota (0.191) with 100,067 cases, Wyoming (0.176) with 54,616 cases, Tennessee (0.122) with 777,935 cases, and Montana (0.122) with 100,351 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 70 of last 139 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 154 of last 244 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 72 of last 165 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 7 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 64 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Rhode Island and US Virgin Islands, were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee, Wyoming, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous two days. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00748 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00634. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 14 of the 18 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.193) with 100,184 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 487,374 cases, Wyoming (0.123) with 54,685 cases, Louisiana (0.123) with 432,527 cases, and South Dakota (0.116) with 113,065 case. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 155 of last 245 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 155 of last 211 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 73 of last 166 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 21 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Missouri was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00766 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00748. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 15 of the 19 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.151) with 54,764 cases, North Dakota (0.141) with 100,278 cases, Arkansas (0.133) with 324,326 cases, Minnesota (0.113) with 488,170 cases, and New Hampshire (0.111) with 76,422 case. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 74 of last 167 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 156 of last 246 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 96 of last 197 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 156 of last 212 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 112 of last 157 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00756 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00766. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 16 of the 20 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 10% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.128) with 489,116 cases, New Hampshire (0.127) with 76,695 case, North Dakota (0.119) with 100,357 cases, Montana (0.107) with 100,842 cases, and Tennessee (0.094) with 782,206 cases . All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 157 of last 213 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 113 of last 158 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 157 of last 247 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 67 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 10 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Missouri, Puerto Rico, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Missouri did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00656 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00756. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 17 of the 21 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 10% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.122) with 490,011 cases, Louisiana (0.100) with 433,785 cases, South Dakota (0.100) with 113,589 cases, Tennessee (0.092) with 783,484 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.086) with 2735 case. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 158 of last 214 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 15 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 24 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 11 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 71 of last 143 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Missouri and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Missouri did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00475 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00656. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 18 of the 22 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Yesterday's growth rate of 0.0475 was the lowest I have ever calculated.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 10% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

Yesterday's active case count was 41,967. This is the lowest recorded since October 11, 2020. The deaths for yesterday were 716 and the lowest reported since November 15. 2020

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