Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 08 Mar 2021, 09:54

volvolugnut wrote: ↑01 Mar 2021, 11:32 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (Feb 27 to March 6). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week but continues negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle except in the last month. Meanwhile Days to Double graph continues a strong increasing trend for 7 day, 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double is similar to the period in early September of last year but continues to exceed the September results.

There is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers continue to decrease, but are still high in absolute numbers.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 08 Mar 2021, 10:42

volvolugnut wrote: ↑01 Mar 2021, 11:20 I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending March 6, 2021.
The top 5 states are South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Connecticut, and North Dakota. The bottom 5 states are Puerto Rico, District of Columbia, Illinois, South Carolina, and Georgia.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 32.4 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 18.9 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 25.6 %.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 09 Mar 2021, 08:07

volvolugnut wrote: ↑08 Mar 2021, 09:07 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.261) with 54,903 cases, New Hampshire (0.097) with 77,060 cases, Guam (0.077) with 7751 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.066) with 2744 case, and Minnesota (0.064) with 490,483 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 75 of last 170 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 114 of last 160 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 67 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 72 of last 144 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 159 of last 215 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Wyoming, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, Idaho, and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Connecticut, Wyoming, US Military, Guam, and Idaho did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00511 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00475. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 19 of the 23 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 10% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 10 Mar 2021, 11:02

volvolugnut wrote: ↑09 Mar 2021, 08:07 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 9, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.164) with 100,514 cases, Wyoming (0.151) with 54,972 cases, Arkansas (0.120) with 325,383 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.113) with 2755 case, and Minnesota (0.101) with 492,108 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 158 of last 250 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 76 of last 171 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 97 of last 201 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 73 of last 145 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 160 of last 216 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Idaho and Missouri were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00636 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00511. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 20 of the 24 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 10% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 11 Mar 2021, 08:24

volvolugnut wrote: ↑10 Mar 2021, 11:02 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 10, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Mississippi (0.916) with 298,445 cases, Guam (0.190) with 7756 case, North Dakota (0.175) with 100,615 cases, Minnesota (0.131) with 493,013 cases, and Tennessee (0.106) with 786,597 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Guam has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 69 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 159 of last 251 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 161 of last 217 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 14 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, South Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Mississippi, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00693 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00636. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 21 of the 25 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 10% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 12 Mar 2021, 08:27

volvolugnut wrote: ↑11 Mar 2021, 08:24 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Mississippi (0.752) with 299,124 cases, Wyoming (0.206) with 55,112 case, North Dakota (0.181) with 100,726 cases, Minnesota (0.157) with 494,106 cases, and New Hampshire (0.150) with 77,764 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 77 of last 173 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 160 of last 252 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 162 of last 218 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 115 of last 163 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, Virginia, Arizona, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Mississippi was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00723 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00693. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 22 of the 26 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 13% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 13 Mar 2021, 08:23

volvolugnut wrote: ↑12 Mar 2021, 08:27 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.375) with 7767 cases, North Dakota (0.189) with 100,847 cases, New Hampshire (0.147) with 78,074 cases, Arkansas (0.145) with 326,499 case, and Minnesota (0.145) with 495,208 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Guam has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 71 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 161 of last 253 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 116 of last 164 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 98 of last 204 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 163 of last 219 days.

Oregon, Delaware, Kansas, Hawaii, Arizona, and Alaska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam and Nebraska were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Indiana, Nevada, Puerto Rico, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). US Military did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00777 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00723. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 23 of the 27 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 13% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 14 Mar 2021, 09:32

volvolugnut wrote: ↑13 Mar 2021, 08:23 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 13, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.179) with 101,726 cases, Minnesota (0.144) with 496,395 cases, North Dakota (0.142) with 100,942 cases, New Hampshire (0.113) with 78,319 cases, and Arkansas (0.099) with 326,813 case. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 74 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 164 of last 220 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 162 of last 254 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 117 of last 165 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 99 of last 205 days.

Hawaii did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. This is the first time since February 14, 2021 that no high growth states were reported.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00658 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00777. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 24 of the 28 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 13% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 14 Mar 2021, 10:27

volvolugnut wrote: ↑08 Mar 2021, 09:54 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (March 7 to March 13). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week but continues slightly negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle, with the exception of the last month. Meanwhile Days to Double graph continues a strong increasing trend for 7 day, 14 day and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double is now similar to the period in early September of last year.

There is good evidence here for encouragement. New case numbers continue to decrease, but are still high in absolute numbers. However, the decrease in new cases is slowing and we may have an new increase in the future. Several states have recently removed public restrictions on gathering.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 15 Mar 2021, 09:51

volvolugnut wrote: ↑14 Mar 2021, 09:32 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 14, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.148) with 437,393 cases, New Hampshire (0.136) with 78,615 cases, Minnesota (0.118) with 497,392 cases, Vermont (0.078) with 16,890 cases, and Massachusetts (0.065) with 602,308 case. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 22 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 118 of last 166 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 165 of last 221 days.

Hawaii did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Louisiana and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00499 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00658. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 25 of the 29 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 13% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

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